The Marlins have done just fine without Mike Lowell–in no small part aided by the acquisition of Jeff Conine–but the Fish will certainly be happy to have their start third baseman back in the lineup. It’s possible that he’ll get a couple regular season at-bats to test his thumb if he’s cleared. He was targeting Saturday, but due to the medical staff’s concerns, and an adjustment of game time, Lowell is more likely to be back on Sunday. A final determination will be made when he’s seen by the doctor on Friday. (On Conine and others, has this been the weirdest year in recent memory for moves working out that looked horrible on paper?)
With the clinch, the Twins get to rest their players and reset their rotation for the Division Series. Ron Gardenhire started the 2003 Rochester Red Wings on Wednesday, affording some rest for guys like Doug Mientkiewicz. Minky will sit out the remaining games to try and get his wrist some much needed rest. As well, the Twins will work the rotation to get Johan Santana–a guy they were reluctant to have in the rotation not too long ago–as their Game One starter. How Ron Gardenhire sets his bench and rotation will be very interesting, with guys like Chris Gomez, who has missed the better part of September with back problems, and Eric Milton, looking for roles.
How does Francisco Rodriguez stack up with other AL rookies in 2003? If anyone’s seen the real Shawn Estes lately, the Cubs would certainly like to know of his whereabouts. And the Detroit Tigers suck. All this and much more news from Anaheim, Chicago, and Detroit in your Thursday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
See? THIS is why I don’t go to more games:
Have you seen anything more fun (on a baseball field) than Billy Wagner vs. Barry Bonds today? –Jim Cole
Well, Jim, I wouldn’t know, because I didn’t see that epic matchup. While the Astros were clinging for dear life to their division hopes in yesterday’s 2-1 win over the Giants, I was in Anaheim, watching the Dodgers…excuse me, the Mariners…go down like Peter McNeely against John Lackey and the Angels. I’m not complaining–I got to talk baseball for two hours with SABR’s Stephen Roney and saw some very good pitching–but Jim’s e-mail illustrates the opportunity cost of going to games in the satellite era.
I promised an analysis of the Mariners’ fade for today; that’s not coming until Friday. (Life Lesson No. 12: Never believe promises made after 2 a.m. Those of you 22 and over probably know this one already.) Today, it’s all about the Marlins.
The O’s have something to look forward to in little Mike Fontenot. Colorado is more or less stuck for the time being. And Jose Reyes has been showing some nice development over the past few months for the Mets. All this and much more news from Baltimore, Colorado, and New York in your Wednesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
Among serious contenders this season, Boston’s Theo Epstein is the only freshman GM. And since the Red Sox have roughly a 97.6% chance of winning the Wild Card, perhaps it’s time to divvy up the plaudits. Boston’s erstwhile GM, Dan Duquette, put together the bulk of this team. While that’s fairly ipso facto for an exec only 18 months or so removed from the job, it’s worth asking to what degree Duquette’s fingerprints are on this year’s model. One obvious way to do that is to take a cumulative, all-encompassing metric and see what percentage the Epstein-era acquisitions are contributing. Let’s first take a look at the offense using Value Over Replacement Player (VORP). Players traded for or signed by Epstein are indicated by an asterisk (*) following their names:
This probably happens to everyone. After I filed my column for Tuesday, I started to think I’d missed something, that there was one more thing I’d forgotten to look at. The next day, I had the same feeling, so when the column went up, I went back again and there it was, staring me in the face. I started this follow-up immediately, and considering the amount of e-mail I normally get I was stunned that I was able to dive into it a couple hours before a reader sent feedback that nailed the problem exactly: I found your latest Breaking Balls (“Cheaters”, in case it takes a week for you to get to this e-mail) quite interesting. But I also find your conclusion a little odd, especially considering the Red Sox splits at home with RISP. The reason for the drop-off is right in your article: “Some teams have supposedly gone to always using more complicated signs usually reserved for runner-on-second situations when facing the Sox.” Since RISP usually means a runner on second, teams will switch to the more complex signs. Anyone stealing signs would be more likely to screw up and relay the wrong pitch, or be unable to relay any information at all, either way one would expect a decrease in the hitter’s effectiveness. In fact, one could argue that Boston’s poor performance in those situations is evidence that they rely heavily on stealing signs. Not that I blame them, it’s not cheating after all.
With the White Sox eliminated, they’ll try to keep something positive working by giving Esteban Loaiza a couple shots at winning 20 games by pitching him twice this week on short rest. Word from the south side has the Sox with a quick hook, positive or negative, in his first start and letting him control his destiny for the last. Loaiza has been handled very well this season–another positive reflection on Don Cooper’s work.
I’m just stunned at the comeback of Jose Guillen. With a broken hamate, his swing looks unaltered and effective. He’s obviously subject to pain tolerance and immediate relapse, but the A’s have to like having a guy who can play under such circumstances. They’re also smart enough to let another team overpay for him. Is Jose Guillen this year’s Jeffrey Hammonds? Maybe.
The Padres are beginning to figure out how the pieces go together for 2004. As expected, Ryan Klesko will move to the outfield with Phil Nevin being a bit protected from diving injuries (we hope) at first base. With Brian Giles normally a left-fielder, the immediate thought is that Klesko would move to right, but with the new park showing some odd dimensions, the Pads will have an open mind when it comes to positioning their outfield.
One of the weird things about this gig is that people who aren’t familiar with BP or my work assume that I go to a lot of baseball games. I don’t, actually. While I love live baseball, I also love my Extra Innings package and the 10-15 games a night it brings into my home. Given a choice between attending one and watching 15, I often choose the lazier of two paths.
If anything, I’ve gotten worse about it with each passing season. I’ll have to make a greater effort next season, maybe set a goal of N games or to catch one game of each series.
Last night, however, I dragged my sorry ass down to Anaheim to catch the Angels/Mariners game with BP’s Jason Grady. I’d been wanting to see the Mariners, anyway (and will do so again today), because their repeat of 2002’s second-half fade is an interesting story that I’d like to cover. More on that tomorrow.
Are the Red Sox cheating? During a game last Wednesday, Tampa Bay Devil Rays manager Lou Piniella complained that the Boston Red Sox relievers were watching television in their bullpen, while his team’s bullpen had no television. After talking to the umps, the umps made the Sox turn off the television. Piniella said a couple of things, but mostly that by having a TV, relievers could better see batters and their approach, which gave them an unfair advantage. There are important issues at stake here. What if there are better-quality sunflower seeds available in one bullpen? Could one team stock a nasty flavor of Gatorade, like “Glacier Freeze,” in the opposing team’s bullpen in hopes of knocking them out of their routine? Make the bench itself uncomfortable and wobbly, promoting inter-bullpen arguments about who’s rocking it? It’s not, incidentally, cheating to steal signs. There’s nothing in the rules that says you can’t, because there’s nothing in the rules about signs at all. Technically, this is all outside the rules anyway…except that I understand there’s an MLB rule that prohibits electronic devices in ballparks entirely. Which if true, the Red Sox are breaking. Unless MLB granted them an exemption, which they do all the time when teams want to do things like build stadiums with dimensions forbidden by the rules, or violate the debt/equity rule if the team is owned by the Commissioner.
As most focus has gone to the workloads placed on Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, Dusty Baker hasn’t gone easy on his other starters. Carlos Zambrano, one must remember, is in fact younger than Prior by nine months. Zambrano is averaging 109 pitches per start–more over the last two months–and followed a 129 pitch appearance with a poor outing where he was saved by a 10-run outburst. Zambrano’s next start is pivotal, both because the Cubs are tied for the division lead, and because he must show that he can rebound from the heavy workload placed on him. Zambrano is also significantly past his previous innings pitched maximum, a big red flag. Add in reports of back and knee soreness and Zambrano goes from the fist-pumping fireballer that Cubs fans want to see on the mound to someone that has to be watched closely and could become a question mark if the Cubs make it to post-season play.
Also making the watch-list is Matt Clement. Lately, Clement has been dealing with groin and calf problems that have exacerbated his streaky nature and spotty control. The Cubs will combat his problems with extended rest, pushing him back to Saturday and forcing the Cubs to go to Shawn Estes in a must-win game. Clement’s move back in the rotation opens a question as to his playoff availability, and where he fits in the playoff rotation. Depending on tiebreakers and last minute, must-win game adjustments, the Cubs figure to use Prior, Wood, and Zambrano. Expect Clement’s outing next Saturday to be his audition for the rotation. A good start and the Cubs will go four-man.
The Red Sox aren’t settling for the Wild Card yet. The Barry Larkin era has apparently come to an end for the Reds. A look at the second tier of young Padres pitchers. All this and more from San Diego, Cincinnati, and Boston in your Tuesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
The Marlins’ Jack McKeon deserves the National League Manager of the Year award. The Yankees start thinking about their playoff roster. The Pirates start thinking ahead to 2004. These and other news and notes out of Florida, New York, and Pittsburgh in the Monday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
The Detroit Tigers, who opened September by winning three of four from the Indians to make it appear that they would avoid baseball’s all-time lists for incompetence, have reopened all those discussions by going 1-15 since that set, including an active nine-game losing streak. With a week to go, the Tigers have tied the American League record for losses in a season with 117, a mark set by the 1916 Philadelphia A’s, the wreckage of a very good team that was scattered to the four winds by Connie Mack. (Think post-1997 Florida Marlins for the Wilson Administration.) They’re just three losses from tying the all-time mark for defeats in a season, set by the 1962 New York Mets–a first-year expansion team–at 40-120. The Tigers also have a chance to be the first team since the 1935 Boston Braves (38-115) to not reach 40 wins in a full season. Can they get there? What is the most likely coda the Tigers will put on their long and dreary 2003?
It is every fan’s god-given right to second guess. Half the fun of the game is the “Why is he bunting?” or “He has Dunston pinch-hitting?” chatter. BP is built on the idea that baseball can be made better by looking at it from a different perspective, which is an academic slant on second-guessing. If I had a dollar for every time I heard someone say “Just because it worked doesn’t mean it was smart” when it comes to a Dusty Baker move–especially if this includes my own utterances on that theme–I’d be able to afford one of those cool Segways.
At some point, however, there has to be something more to it than mere luck. While it’s tough–if not impossible–to isolate managerial performance, Baker is demonstrating that he more-or-less knows what he’s doing in the face of so much evidence to the contrary. At some point, Baker ceases to be a fluke like the 2002 Angels–a house built on sand–and becomes, well, something else entirely.
Powered by a software update to my Nokia 3650 and Apple’s iSync, on to the injuries…
The White Sox go through a demoralizing series against the Twins. Bud Selig thinks the game is great (funny how things change). Ron Santo is just proud to be a Cub. And a bunch of Tigers weigh in on who’s the best pitcher in the AL this year. All this and many more quips from around the league in your Monday edition of The Week In Quotes.
As the Red Sox fight both the Mariners and the specter of the Yankees, they’ll do it with a fully-loaded Pedro Martinez. Quotes today from Red Sox Nation include tidbits that Pedro’s recent longer outings were part of a master plan. If the plan is to be believed (and color me somewhat skeptical), Pedro’s extra days of rest, short outings, and conditioning program all built up to this. This bears watching as some sort of modern version of the “Sunday Pitcher.” If it works, like anything successful in sports, it will be imitated. The Sox are also dealing with the limited availability of Bill Mueller, out with back spasms. Adding in Johnny Damon’s problems and a bullpen that seems to be missing only J. Irving Bentley, and the Sox, like every other playoff team, have an Achilles heel. Speaking of teams that are dealing with injury problems and overcoming them, the A’s seem to be the masters. With Keith Foulke likely to be back on Friday, but the back spasms quite possible to recur, the bullpen in Oakland will need to be watched closely and set up for the playoffs. I don’t think Foulke’s injury should be a major problem, but the chance of his unavailability in even one close game could be the tipping point in a playoff series. As the China Trust Whales discovered this season, even one game lost can make the difference between the playoffs and making tee times. On the good news front, Chris Singleton and Billy McMillon should be back, perhaps as early as Friday after treatment to Singleton’s back and McMillon’s finger reduced symptoms.