With the minor league season over and the major league playoffs almost ready to begin, plenty of pre-game work has already begun here for my annual Top 11 Prospects lists. Beginning once the final out of the World Series is recorded, these lists will (as always) be exclusive to Baseball Prospectus subscribers and feature in-depth scouting reports on 330 of the top prospects in the game.
With that in mind, there will be some differences this year, beginning with the publication order. In the past, I've done them in alphabetical order, while flipping American and National Leagues annually. It made sense, but at the same time, if you were a Washington Nationals fan, the best you could hope for was to go 16th, and that was never fair. Therefore, I'm doing them in worst-to-first order this year, just like the draft. So as of right now, the first three teams would be the Pirates, Mariners and either the Orioles or Diamondbacks, but there's still plenty of time for your favorite team to tank and move up in the pecking order.
So other than that, what would you like to see in this year's Top 11 Prospects?
Thank you for reading
This is a free article. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Subscriptions support ongoing public baseball research and analysis in an increasingly proprietary environment.
Subscribe now
As a Padres fan, I'm less interested in Simon Castro than Adys Portillo or Jonathon Galvez for something like this. There's simply more extant information out there on Castro.
For each hitter, along with current fielding position, how about including your best guess as to the position they would play if he made the major leagues?
Only this: a guarantee that the Orioles' young talent will produce an invincible juggernaut that will win the AL East every year from 2012-2020.
This is a problem across all scouting reports like these. The ratings are done, we all kvetch about why our fav player is rated so low, and then it's forgotten. Nobody ever checks to see if the rankings were any good or not.
I'd like to see a review of last year's rankings. What was right, what was wrong, etc. Who graduated and how they did, and who flamed out.
That's my main request.
I too would like to see tool rankings, although I understand that would add a huge workload to the process.
Also, I see no reason to give each team 11 prospects. I know that is "fair", but I would much rather see the top prospects (five, four, and three star) prospects from each team regardless of how many that makes. Of course some teams will get more than 11 prospects and some less, but then it becomes obvious who has the deeper farm systems.
It's useful to know why different players fell or rose, or aren't on the list -- even in the case of promotions. Ex: The last two years Jaime Garcia ranked as a 3-Star guy. Would he rank higher after posting a sub-3.00 ERA in the majors?
The point is just that it's an interesting question: where would he rank now? Do we now view his upside as higher than before, or is this entirely a fluke?
Perhaps there should be a minimum, and then more if there are other 3-star guys?
Depth in prospects is so important, and 3 star guys are in many cases very important.
knowing that the Astros have 3 3-star guys in their system but the Rangers, A's, Ray's, and Braves have 10-20 is important.
Similarly, I'd also like to see changes in ranking if a guy gets bumped from 4 to 5 stars or 5 to 3 stars. I'd like to know if they did, and why (without having to dig up last year's list). At least some links to previous years' rankings would be nice.
The changes in player rankings aren't always obvious to us (or maybe just to me).
Incidentally, I note that these grades were missing for the 2001 rookie class. Apparently, with a grading system running from 1 (complete dud) to 7 (reached the majors and exceeded all expectations), the system couldn't figure out how to give Pujols a 12. :-)
I think that would be intriguing and also might give a better idea of possible fantasy impact.
Again, I can't tell you how much I enjoy these reports!
It is great to go to the various sites and see players with nice stat lines, but it would be great if they had a little extra meaning or context. The lists are already great and anything you could add would be appreciated. I need something to look forward to as an M's Fan :(.
I'll grant that it's not everyone's cup of tea, but I say keep 'em coming.
wait...you don't have anything ELSE to do, do you?
Your "under 25" lists really have a unique niche in the industry. There are lots of top 100 lists or top 10 in org lists - but they all exclude players with
MLB experience. I'd like to see these guys get a * rating.
Thanks.
Tom A.
Might be a good way for you to sneak 'favourite' guys on there, even if you're not really comfortable giving them a rank.
I take all of the top-11s and paste them into Excel where I can then manage all of the lists, sort by organization, position, # of stars, etc. However, the way that it's formatted makes for a good bit of formatting on this end. Any chance that the information could be presented in a nice looking, copy-friendly table?
a) what a player will possibly do in the long run
b) his odds of achieving that
c) his most likely long term abilities
d) - as important as any of these - what he would likely do in the Majors if given a shot in the up coming season.
Important to all of these are the natural abilities and mental make up components. The latter, though at least as important, I can imagine is less concrete and more contentious. So, it would be nice to those components as much as Kevin is permitted to give.
Your writing has singlehandedly switched me from being on the fence about renewing my subscription to a definite renew. Anything you are willing to about is fine, as long as there's as much of it as possible.
I still remember the fiasco this Spring with Pecota.
1. Tools -- No way can I give you you 20-80 scores for every tool for 330 players. That said, a best tool/worst tool might be good.
2. Fantasy -- Can I get more input here on what you want? Like for a hitter (let's say Desmond Jennings), you'd get: Avg: High Power: Low Stolen Bases: Excellent. Something like that?
3. ETA -- I've always done the path, but I'll try to get more specific as for as years go. Obviously, if I'm doing someone line Heredia, that's a bit of a dart throw.
1. Likelihood of significant playing time in the upcoming season. (400 PA, 120 IP?)
2. Keeper value over the next 2-3 years - is this an Upton, worth holding through the growing pains? Or is this an F- Gutierrez, whose skill sets don't translate to great Fantasy players, regardless of RL value? If this could be applied to the 25-and-under list, even better, as it would help identify breakouts who started their young career slow, like Wieters.
3. Prospects to avoid wasting picks/trades on - players who put up gaudy numbers in the minors, but whose stats translate to an average fantasy player, or worse (hello, Brandon Wood!).
I love the "Under 25" list and the star rankings. Allows me to figure out which prospects are the cream of the crop and when they may be playing in the majors.
And I love the "Future Shock" column every Monday and the daily Minor league updates.
All great sources of information.
Keep up the good work!
I'd like to know what people think of this?