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02-21

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14

BP Unfiltered: Home Run Rates and Elbow Injuries UPDATED
by
Corey Dawkins, Ben Lindbergh, Harry Pavlidis and Doug Thorburn

01-02

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2

Pebble Hunting: The Non-Pitching Value of Pitchers
by
Sam Miller

05-11

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15

Prospectus Hit and Run: Donnie Buntball
by
Jay Jaffe

02-23

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12

Inside The Park: Ode to a Terrible Stat
by
Bradford Doolittle

02-14

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7

Western Front: Dirk Hayhurst's Search for Sustainable Happiness
by
Geoff Young

02-03

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35

Future Shock: Giants Top 11 Prospects
by
Kevin Goldstein

01-13

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61

Heartburn Hardball: Jack Morris in Motion
by
Jonathan Bernhardt

11-22

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30

Spinning Yarn: How Does Quality of Contact Relate to BABIP?
by
Mike Fast

11-18

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15

Baseball ProGUESTus: Why Having a Quick Hook Helps
by
Mitchel Lichtman

11-16

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41

Spinning Yarn: Who Controls How Hard the Ball is Hit?
by
Mike Fast

10-27

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9

Manufactured Runs: Matchup Madness
by
Colin Wyers

10-10

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4

Resident Fantasy Genius: Can Pitchers Control Their Consistency?
by
Derek Carty

09-24

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71

Spinning Yarn: Removing the Mask Encore Presentation
by
Mike Fast

09-14

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47

The Lineup Card: Commissioner for a Day
by
Baseball Prospectus

08-26

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4

Baseball ProGUESTus: Do Pitchers Really Trade Speed for Command?
by
Graham Goldbeck

08-04

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6

Spinning Yarn: Counsell for the Defense
by
Mike Fast

05-24

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5

Baseball ProGUESTus: Answers from a Sabermetrician, Part 1
by
Tom Tango

04-13

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17

Prospectus Q&A: YOU Make the Call! Part II
by
David Laurila

03-17

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40

Fantasy Focus: Pre-season Fantasy Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-17

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15

The BP Wayback Machine: How Much Control Do Hurlers Have?
by
Voros McCracken

02-16

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59

Spinning Yarn: The Real Strike Zone
by
Mike Fast

11-11

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7

Spinning Yarn: Pitcher Release Points
by
Mike Fast

04-12

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14

Baseball Therapy: Credit Where It's Due, Part 2
by
Russell A. Carleton

04-04

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9

Fantasy Focus: Pre-season Fantasy Predictions
by
Baseball Prospectus

03-29

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3

Baseball Therapy: Credit Where It's Due, Part 1
by
Russell A. Carleton

03-15

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44

Baseball Therapy: The Unintended Consequences of The Strike One Cult
by
Russell A. Carleton

01-25

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63

Prospectus Roundtable: Analyzing RoboPitcher
by
Baseball Prospectus

01-11

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16

Checking the Numbers: Side Effects on Pitchers' Hitting
by
Russell A. Carleton and Eric Seidman

08-28

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5

Checking the Numbers: Whiffing the Pitcher, Part One
by
Eric Seidman

06-21

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25

Prospectus Idol Entry: Do You Hate Pitchers' Won-Loss Record? Blame Your Grandfather
by
Matthew Knight

05-23

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26

Prospectus Idol Entry: Getting Hip with FIP
by
Byron Lescroart

01-12

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10

Prospectus Hit and Run: The Pitchers
by
Jay Jaffe

05-29

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: Evaluating Pitcher Hitting
by
Nate Silver

05-15

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0

Lies, Damned Lies: The Lost Generation?
by
Nate Silver

02-24

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0

Prospectus Q&A: Doug Thorburn
by
David Laurila

12-16

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0

Prospectus Q&A: John Farrell
by
David Laurila

11-04

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0

Prospectus Q&A: Josh Paul
by
David Laurila

05-08

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0

Wait 'Til Next Year: Career Path Choices
by
Bryan Smith

10-16

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0

Future Shock: Monday Morning Ten-Pack
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-16

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0

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Six
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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0

Future Shock: Where Did the Tigers and the Athletics Come From?
by
Kevin Goldstein

10-14

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0

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Four
by
Joe Sheehan

10-14

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0

Playoff Prospectus: The Best and Worst of Mets and Cardinals Postseason Pitching
by
Jim Baker

10-13

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0

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day Three
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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0

Prospectus Today: The Games Go On
by
Joe Sheehan

10-12

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0

Player Profile
by
Marc Normandin

10-11

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0

Remembering Buck O'Neil
by
Alex Belth

10-11

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0

Prospectus Today: LCS, Day One
by
Joe Sheehan

10-09

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0

Completely Random Statistical Trivia
by
Keith Woolner

10-09

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Prospectus Today: Division Series, Day Six
by
Joe Sheehan

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Why do pitchers who allow fewer home runs hurt their elbows more often?

If you haven't read Russell A. Carleton's article from Monday on the factors that really predict pitcher injuries, go do that now. Then listen to his subsequent tour of the baseball podcast circuit, from Buster Olney's Baseball Tonight to Ian Miller's and Riley Breckenridge's Prodcast. I'll wait.

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Is it worth paying certain pitchers more for what they do when they're not on the mound?

I was talking to a friend the other day who pointed out that, had Johnny Cueto not been knocked out in the first game, and had not Mike Leake been the Reds' uninspiring only option to replace him, the Giants probably wouldn’t have won the NLDS or, consequently, the World Series. That seems reasonable:

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May 11, 2012 3:00 am

Prospectus Hit and Run: Donnie Buntball

15

Jay Jaffe

Don Mattingly's affinity for the bunt could be keeping the Dodgers from scoring more runs.

Like many a Dodger fan, I found myself pulling out clumps of hair on Tuesday night. The Dodgers—a first-place team at 19-10 to that point, surprisingly—were facing the Giants (14-15) in L.A. Despite having Clayton Kershaw on the hill, they were on the short end of a 2-1 score, because with a man on base in the second inning, their ace left a high fastball to Brett Pill a bit too far out over the plate, and Pill drove it 384 feet into the left-field bleachers. The Dodgers had plated a run against Ryan Vogelsong in the bottom of the second thanks to a pair of doubles, but they could get no more, and as the innings passed, the situation grew more desperate.

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We all know wins aren't a good way to judge pitchers, but we'd miss them if they went away.

"My choice for the front-runner is Welch, but I know a lot of people say Clemens. I know what Clemens has done for Boston, but now is not the time to change the rules. The guys who won it the last three years won the most games and had good stats. If Bob Welch continues to win at this pace, and he doesn't get it, something is terribly wrong with the judging."
| A's pitcher Dave Stewart, in a 1990 Sports Illustrated story on that season's Cy Young voting

Bob Welch had just won his 20th game when his Oakland teammate was asked about the voting, and it was just Aug. 17. It was his 13th season and the first and last time that the 33-year-old Welch would win 20 games.


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Garfoose wrangler, author, and newly-minted Italian leaguer Dirk Hayhurst discusses baseball, his new book, and his decision to move across the pond.

I recently chatted with former Padres, Blue Jays, and Rays right-hander Dirk Hayhurst about baseball, his new book, and his upcoming move to Italy. I've talked to Dirk (who has a blog and is active on Twitter as TheGarfoose) a few times over the years, and it's always good to catch up with a fellow “Monty Python” fan. (Sadly, we did not discuss “Python” this time, so you'll have to settle for Sir Not Appearing in This Interview.)

We did discuss Dirk's decision to make Italy the next stop in his baseball career. This strikes some people as an unusual choice, but Dirk views it as an adventure. Although he has never been to Italy, he looks forward to working and living in a country whose culture moves at a more relaxed pace than the United States.

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The future of the Giants' farm system will largely depend upon the team's most recent draft.

Previous Rankings: 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008

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A writer who never saw Jack Morris pitch watches him in action for the first time and comes away even less convinced that the traditionalist case for his candidacy should earn him a call to Cooperstown.

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Mike continues his investigation of HITf/x data to glean more insights into whether pitchers can prevent hits on balls in play.

In the first part of this study, I used detailed batted ball speed information from HITf/x to examine the degree of skill that batters and pitchers had in quality of contact made or allowed. Here, I will look deeper into the question of why some batted balls fall for hits and others do not.

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You might not know it from watching the World Series, but it often makes sense for a manager to pinch hit for his starter before the late innings.

Believe it or not, most of our writers didn't enter the world sporting an @baseballprospectus.com address; with a few exceptions, they started out somewhere else. In an effort to up your reading pleasure while tipping our caps to some of the most illuminating work being done elsewhere on the internet, we'll be yielding the stage once a week to the best and brightest baseball writers, researchers and thinkers from outside of the BP umbrella. If you'd like to nominate a guest contributor (including yourself), please drop us a line.

Mitchel Lichtman, or MGL, has been doing sabermetric research and writing for over 20 years. He is one of the authors of The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball, and co-hosts The Book blog, www.insidethebook.com. He consulted for the St. Louis Cardinals from 2004 to 2006, as well as other major-league teams. He holds a B.A. from Cornell University and a J.D. from the University of Nevada Boyd School of Law. Most of the time these days you can find him on the golf course.


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When a batter and pitch face off, which has a greater effect on how hard the ball is hit, and what can that tell us about pitcher BABIP?

The last decade has seen much discussion and evolution in sabermetric thought around the relative abilities of batters, pitchers, fielders, and Lady Luck to control the outcome of batted balls. Data collected by Sportvision and MLBAM sheds new light on this question, but before we tackle that data, let’s review some of the history of how we came to our current state of knowledge.

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October 27, 2011 5:00 am

Manufactured Runs: Matchup Madness

9

Colin Wyers

As the Cardinals and Rangers approach the end of their series, we offer a reminder to their skippers: batter-pitcher matchups aren't very predictive.

With the Cardinals facing elimination, Game Six will be an all-hands-on-deck endeavor. Both managers are scouring their rosters for any potential advantage, and as part of that effort, they’ll probably be referring to historic batter-pitcher matchups. Should La Russa lean heavily on a player like Octavio Dotel, who has historically done well against Rangers hitters like Adrian Beltre and Michael Young? Or should he opt for the players with the best overall performance, regardless of what the matchups say?

Let’s say we want to predict the outcome of a particular batter-pitcher matchup. I’m going to lean heavily on True Average, which is scaled to look like batting average but captures a player’s total batting value (so a player gets a little credit for a walk and a bit more for a single, all the way up to a home run).

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October 10, 2011 10:34 pm

Resident Fantasy Genius: Can Pitchers Control Their Consistency?

4

Derek Carty

We've heard about streaky vs. consistent hitters before, but can pitchers control their consistency?

In my preview of the NLDS between the Brewers and Diamondbacks last week, reader mopup1 posted a comment relating to something I’ve been meaning to look into for a while now.

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