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03-31

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My Model Portfolio: Stars, Scrubs, and High-End Starters
by
Nick Shlain

03-31

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0

Closer Report: Week One
by
Matt Collins

03-31

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0

My Model Portfolio: Framing Decisions Around Value
by
Jeff Quinton

03-30

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7

The Darkhorses: Batting Average and Home Runs
by
BP Fantasy Staff

03-30

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1

The Buyer's Guide: Adam Lind
by
J.P. Breen

03-30

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3

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: National League Players to Monitor
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

03-27

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5

Fantasy Freestyle: BP Rankings vs. ADP
by
Wilson Karaman

03-27

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7

The Darkhorses: Steals and Saves
by
BP Fantasy Staff

03-26

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4

Expert League Auction Recap: Tout Wars: General Impressions
by
Mike Gianella

03-26

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9

Fantasy Auction Values: Third Edition, 2015
by
Mike Gianella

03-26

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7

The Quinton: Draft Setting and the Wisdom of our Competition
by
Jeff Quinton

03-26

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4

Fantasy Freestyle: Endgame Picks
by
Nick Shlain

03-26

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11

Player Profile: Jedd Gyorko
by
Keith Cromer

03-25

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7

Tout Wars X
by
Bret Sayre

03-25

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14

The Darkhorses: ERA and WHIP
by
BP Fantasy Staff

03-25

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7

Five to Watch: National League Position Battles
by
Wilson Karaman

03-24

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9

Expert League Auction Recap: National League Tout Wars
by
Mike Gianella

03-24

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4

Five to Watch: American League Position Battles
by
Nick Shlain

03-24

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2

Player Profile: Coco Crisp
by
Matt Collins

03-24

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2

Fantasy Freestyle: 2014 Graduated Prospects, Part 2: 26-50
by
Ben Carsley

03-23

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19

The Darkhorses: Wins and Strikeouts
by
BP Fantasy Staff

03-23

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2

The Buyer's Guide: Kyle Hendricks
by
J.P. Breen

03-20

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36

Fantasy Draft Rankings
by
Mike Gianella

03-20

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14

Fantasy Freestyle: 2014 Graduated Prospects, Part 1: 1-25
by
Ben Carsley

03-20

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2

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: American League Players to Monitor
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

03-19

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5

Player Profile: Shane Greene
by
Matt Collins

03-19

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Player Profile: Travis Snider
by
Keith Cromer

03-19

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9

Fantasy Auction Values: Second Edition, 2015
by
Mike Gianella

03-19

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5

The Quinton: Depth, Insurance, and Filling Out a Roster
by
Jeff Quinton

03-18

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6

Fantasy Freestyle: Spring Training Battles to Watch
by
J.P. Breen

03-18

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7

Five to Watch: AL Post-Prospects
by
Wilson Karaman

03-17

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4

Five to Watch: National League Hitters
by
Nick Shlain

03-16

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2

The Buyer's Guide: Michael Pineda
by
J.P. Breen

03-16

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13

Fantasy Freestyle: Case Studies of Two Auctions
by
Mike Gianella

03-16

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2

Five to Watch: American League Starting Pitchers
by
Ben Carsley

03-13

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Player Profile: Ryan Zimmerman
by
Matt Collins

03-13

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6

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Categories to Keep in Mind
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

03-12

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8

Player Profile: Danny Salazar
by
Keith Cromer

03-12

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5

The Quinton: Choice Architecture and Trade Talks
by
Jeff Quinton

03-12

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2

Five to Watch: National League Starting Pitchers
by
Wilson Karaman

03-11

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Fantasy Freestyle: ADP Underachivers: Hitters
by
Wilson Karaman

03-11

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7

Five to Watch: American League Hitters
by
Nick Shlain

03-10

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2

Expert League Auction Recap: LABR American League
by
Mike Gianella

03-10

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22

Fantasy Freestyle: A Different Dynasty Top 101 List
by
Ben Carsley

03-10

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3

Five to Watch: NL Post-Prospects
by
J.P. Breen

03-06

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TTO Scoresheet Podcast: Talking Keepers and Prospects
by
Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

03-06

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Player Profile: Neftali Feliz
by
Nick Shlain

03-06

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6

Fantasy Players to Avoid: Relief Pitchers
by
BP Fantasy Staff

03-05

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13

The -Only League Landscape: National League Relievers
by
Keith Cromer

03-05

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6

Tale of the Tape, Dynasty Edition: Nick Burdi vs. Derek Law
by
J.P. Breen

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March 31, 2015 6:00 am

My Model Portfolio: Stars, Scrubs, and High-End Starters

0

Nick Shlain

Nick splurges on the Tiger tandem of Miguel Cabrera and David Price, and builds his team around a handful of high-value bats.

The Process:
Mixed leagues are adorable. Look at all of these players—the possibilities are almost endless. Even so, I stuck to my guns and played out a mostly stars-and-scrubs approach for this exercise. It’s my preferred strategy in any mixed league because the replacement-level value on the waiver wire in mixed leagues is significantly higher than in an “-only” format. Even if I completely whiff on estimating a player’s value or lose one due to injury, the waiver wire won’t be a complete wasteland when it’s time to find a replacement.

I’m not especially concerned with having three $1 players on offense because of the point I just made about replacement level being what it is in mixed leagues. Once I saw that Stephen Vogt was only $1, I knew I wanted to grab him and a $1 catcher to save some money at the position with an eye toward making Vogt my catcher once he gains in-season eligibility there. This allowed me to buy five offensive players for at least $21 each.


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March 31, 2015 6:00 am

Closer Report: Week One

0

Matt Collins

Surveying the ninth-inning situations around the league heading into Opening Day.

Ah, relievers. The position everyone loves to hate. Keeping tabs on closers can be one of the most frustrating parts of a fantasy baseball season, as situations change seemingly everyday. We’re going to try to help you through that this year, keeping you up to date on who will be grabbing saves around the league. For the first week, I’ll list all the relievers lined up to get the save opportunities to start the year, adding more details underneath where they’re merited. Later weeks will focus solely on those situations that have changed or could change soon.

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March 31, 2015 6:00 am

My Model Portfolio: Framing Decisions Around Value

0

Jeff Quinton

Jeff starts by taking the players he likes more than our bid values, then fills out his roster with the money left over.

Overall Strategy:

Last year, I got caught in the trap of wanting an impact player in each position-player slot, which led to me taking a lot of lower-probability, upside plays that did not pan out. The problem here was not with risk, but rather with framing my decisions through something other than value. This year, my strategy was to first take all the players I like more than Mike Gianella (the creator of the values) and then tweak my roster if needed in order to avoid any category deficiencies.

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March 30, 2015 6:00 am

The Darkhorses: Batting Average and Home Runs

7

BP Fantasy Staff

The gang chooses sleepers to lead the league in these two offensive categories.

Previous articles in this series:

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March 30, 2015 6:00 am

The Buyer's Guide: Adam Lind

1

J.P. Breen

Is a bit year in store for the ex-Jay as he takes over at first base in Milwaukee?

Fantasy baseball owners are hardwired to pursue value. It’s not always about grabbing the best player at a given position, but rather identifying several players who are undervalued by the community and spending less to acquire more. That way, the banked money can be utilized in other areas to create the best possible squad.

When acquiring high-end players, value isn’t always paramount. In auctions, if you’re unwilling to spend the extra $5-10 on an elite player, you’ll be stuck with extra money in the end and a roster devoid of impact talent. Similarly, in snake drafts, the first couple of rounds are more about acquiring “safe” production among the elite, rather than absolute talent—which is why someone like Troy Tulowitzki is a back-end option in the first round, when his talent is clearly top five.

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March 30, 2015 6:00 am

TTO Scoresheet Podcast: National League Players to Monitor

3

Ian Lefkowitz, Ben Murphy and Jared Weiss

The Outcomes spotlight one player from each team whose value could change between now and May.

We’re just as excited as anyone that Opening Day is fast approaching, but we also want to be careful not to overrate its importance for Scoresheet. There’s no guarantee that a player who makes the roster for day one will stick around come May. So here, we list a player we’ll be monitoring on each NL team (we went through the AL last week). Some of these guys are in position battles that potentially won’t be resolved for months. Others are finally getting an opportunity for consistent playing time. And a third group need to find that final gear to achieve (Scoresheet) stardom. Or at least be worthy of a keeper slot.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Jake Lamb

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March 27, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: BP Rankings vs. ADP

5

Wilson Karaman

Comparing when the fantasy staff would advise you to take players to when they're actually being selected.

This article took shape thanks to the comments and suggestions of BP readers Tuck and TroJim. The former noted that a column elaborating on some of the larger discrepancies between Mike Gianella’s Top 300 list and current ADP numbers might be a helpful exercise in helping drafters determine value, and I agree. And then in a response to questions about the utility of our Darkhorses series focusing on generally known and highly drafted players, TroJim made the following excellent point: “Like the stock market... some people try to get rich on penny stocks and others find success in discerning which blue chips will perform the best.”

And lo, a column was born. I’m going to focus this article on the players with the largest gaps between our own ranking and ADP from the top 84 names on Mike’s list, as that cutoff represents the top six rounds of a standard 14-team league. I don’t think I’m breaking much ground with this declaration, but the top six rounds of a draft are extremely important rounds. These are your blue chip players, the foundation upon which your team is built. It’s possible to win with an underwhelming start, but it’s awfully difficult.

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March 27, 2015 6:00 am

The Darkhorses: Steals and Saves

7

BP Fantasy Staff

Unlikely candidates to lead the league in these two fantasy categories.

Previous articles in this series:

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March 26, 2015 6:00 am

Expert League Auction Recap: Tout Wars: General Impressions

4

Mike Gianella

Mike compares the AL and NL LABR and Tout Wars auctions.

On Tuesday, I wrote about how I did in my NL-only Tout Wars auction. Today, I will take a broader look at what happened in both of the mono leagues.

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March 26, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Auction Values: Third Edition, 2015

9

Mike Gianella

Mike updates his recommended bid limits based on the latest news.

The third update of my fantasy auction values brings another set of dollar values to look at, this time from the expert Tout Wars auctions, which were held this past weekend in New York City. Having a troika of expert auctions to look at gives us even more expert opinions to look at, and gives me yet another opportunity to move my prices up or down based on events at the auctions.

This isn’t the only reason I move my prices up or down, of course. Breaking news can also influence my bid limits for better or worse. This isn’t an exercise in being reactive to every little tidbit of news coming out of Florida or Arizona but rather an opportunity to adjust prices based on larger scale news.

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March 26, 2015 6:00 am

The Quinton: Draft Setting and the Wisdom of our Competition

7

Jeff Quinton

How being conscious of others' opinions can impact what you do on draft day.

In scouring the strategy and decision-making side of fantasy baseball for potential areas of improvement, we have now arrived in the land of draft setting. In making this definition up in order to fit the points I am trying to make in the rest of the article, we can break draft setting into two parts: draft medium (in-person or online) and competition (familiars or strangers). The draft setting matters, particularly how we view and know our competition, because the way in which we perceive our decisions will be perceived by others will often influence the decisions we make. As we have mentioned about other decisions, these factors should not matter when we make decisions in an auction or draft, but, alas, they do.

This is not something that only happens to your average fantasy baseball participant, such as me, this is something that happens to the experts too. In discussing the results of his NL Tout auction, Mike Gianella messaged me the following:

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March 26, 2015 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Endgame Picks

4

Nick Shlain

A few possible bargains with which to round out your auctions.

Much of my writing for Baseball Prospectus so far has been about AL-only deep league targets, but even though the following players each reside in the AL, for the purposes of this article these recommendations are intended to be for the endgame in mixed leagues.

Daniel NorrisToronto Blue Jays

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