CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Jeff Quinton 

Search Articles by Jeff Quinton

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives

09-18

comment icon

6

Fantasy Freestyle: Small Moves That Might Matter
by
Jeff Quinton

09-15

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week 25
by
Jeff Quinton

09-12

comment icon

9

Fantasy Freestyle: The Process of Analyzing Process: A Keeper League Example
by
Jeff Quinton

09-08

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week 24
by
Jeff Quinton

09-04

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: A Behavioral Look at Lineup Setting
by
Jeff Quinton

09-02

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week 23
by
Jeff Quinton

08-28

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: Analyzing the Competitive Landscape
by
Jeff Quinton

08-25

comment icon

4

Interleague Report: Week 22
by
Jeff Quinton

08-21

comment icon

3

Fantasy Freestyle: Information, Humans, and Errors in Valuation
by
Jeff Quinton

08-18

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week 21
by
Jeff Quinton

08-11

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week 20
by
Jeff Quinton

08-07

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: A Strategy Example From the Deadline
by
Jeff Quinton

08-04

comment icon

2

Interleague Report: Week 19
by
Jeff Quinton

08-01

comment icon

14

Transaction Analysis: The Great Big David Price Trade
by
R.J. Anderson, J.P. Breen, Sam Miller, Jordan Gorosh, Paul Sporer, Craig Goldstein and Jeff Quinton

07-31

comment icon

0

Transaction Analysis: Chris Denorfia is in the News!
by
Mike Gianella and Jeff Quinton

07-31

comment icon

1

Transaction Analysis: Cardinals Trade from the Depths
by
Jeff Quinton, Mike Gianella and Jason Parks

07-31

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Deadlines and Systems of Thought
by
Jeff Quinton

07-28

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week 18
by
Jeff Quinton

07-24

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: Sustained Success and the Red Queen Hypothesis
by
Jeff Quinton

07-21

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week 17
by
Jeff Quinton

07-17

comment icon

8

Fantasy Freestyle: Midseason Keeper League FAAB Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

07-14

comment icon

1

Interleague Report: Week 16
by
Jeff Quinton

07-10

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: League Norms and Trade Markets
by
Jeff Quinton

07-07

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week 15
by
Jeff Quinton

07-02

comment icon

4

Fantasy Freestyle: Minor League Draft Pick Valuation
by
Jeff Quinton

06-30

comment icon

2

Interleague Report: Week 14
by
Jeff Quinton

06-26

comment icon

5

Fantasy Freestyle: Weaknesses, Decision Framing, and Trades
by
Jeff Quinton

06-23

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week 13
by
Jeff Quinton

06-19

comment icon

3

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Paralysis
by
Jeff Quinton

06-16

comment icon

2

Interleague Report: Week 12
by
Jeff Quinton

06-13

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: In-Season Strategic Agility
by
Jeff Quinton

06-09

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week 11
by
Jeff Quinton

06-05

comment icon

6

Fantasy Freestyle: Keeper League Purgatory
by
Jeff Quinton

06-02

comment icon

1

Interleague Report: Week 10
by
Jeff Quinton

05-27

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week Nine
by
Jeff Quinton

05-22

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: Representativeness, Valuation, and Tanaka
by
Jeff Quinton

05-21

comment icon

13

Transaction Analysis: Stephen Drew and the Red Sox End the Suspense
by
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Quinton

05-19

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week Eight
by
Jeff Quinton

05-14

comment icon

6

Fantasy Freestyle: Growing the Pie
by
Jeff Quinton

05-12

comment icon

3

Interleague Report: Week Seven
by
Jeff Quinton

05-07

comment icon

1

Fantasy Freestyle: Negotiation Styles
by
Jeff Quinton

05-05

comment icon

3

Interleague Report: Week Six
by
Jeff Quinton

04-28

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week Five
by
Jeff Quinton

04-28

comment icon

6

Fantasy Freestyle: Transaction Paralysis
by
Jeff Quinton

04-23

comment icon

5

Fantasy Freestyle: The Benefits of Early-Season Trade Talk
by
Jeff Quinton

04-21

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week Four
by
Jeff Quinton

04-16

comment icon

4

Fantasy Freestyle: Fighting Early-Season Confirmation Bias
by
Jeff Quinton

04-14

comment icon

1

Interleague Report: Week Three
by
Jeff Quinton

04-09

comment icon

8

Fantasy Freestyle: Buying Low, Letting Go, and the Disposition Effect
by
Jeff Quinton

04-07

comment icon

2

Interleague Report: Week Two
by
Jeff Quinton

<< Previous Author Entries No More Author Entries

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

September 18, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Small Moves That Might Matter

6

Jeff Quinton

Gaining a little extra value here and there can make a difference.

“Small moves that might matter” is certainly a connotatively positive way of describing relatively insignificant end-of-season, keeper league, roster moves. It is also certainly a more succinct title. We could just as accurately describe these moves as small moves that will probably not matter. What exactly are these moves? They are “who to drop” decisions of little consequence that come with the nature of keeper leagues and expanded September rosters. Here is an example I am facing in my 10-team, AL-only keeper league:

I need to activate or cut an $8 Drew Pomeranz this upcoming Sunday. In order to activate Pomeranz, I would need to release one of the following players: Danny Salazar ($15) or Rubby De La Rosa ($10). None of these pitchers are likely to be keepers at their current prices. I am currently in fourth place, the last position that pays out (I would get my entrance fee back). I am about 50-50 to finish fourth or fifth, which gets the first pick in next year’s minor-league draft. (In hopes of reverse jinxing myself, there is an outside shot that I finish in sixth.) I value a fourth- or fifth-place finish equally.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

September 15, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 25

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Domonic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

September 12, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: The Process of Analyzing Process: A Keeper League Example

9

Jeff Quinton

Examining how to look at processes and the results they yield with a scenario from one of Jeff's leagues.

I say the following a lot: “analyze process, not results.” It is succinct and catchy. It almost reads like it should have lucky numbers on the back. But what does analyzing process actually look like? The offseason is the perfect time to analyze our processes and make improvements. In preparation, let us start by looking at one of my processes that lead to a poor result. Let us see if the poor result was a result of bad process or a possible outcome that was a part of a satisfactory or even optimal process. More importantly, let us see if there is an opportunity to improve my process.

Warning 1: What follows is not my usual application of a strategy, decision-making, or behavioral concept to fantasy baseball. Instead, what follows is an example from one of my fantasy baseball leagues that allows us to view the process of analyzing process.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

September 8, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 24

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Domonic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

September 4, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: A Behavioral Look at Lineup Setting

0

Jeff Quinton

With the playoffs around the corner, Jeff looks at how to avoid biases when you decide who to start or sit.

In leagues where we set weekly lineups, we do so every week of the season, but the most important lineups we will set (and certainly the ones we will most agonize over) are our playoff lineups. While the technical aspect of setting a lineup (clicking a mouse, typing, using an app etc.) is pretty much behaviorally neutral, there are many cognitive biases that are quite possibly affecting our sit/start decisions. We will take a look at the potential impact of these biases on our decisions and how we can navigate these biases to improve our decisions.

The Biases

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

September 2, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 23

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Domonic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

August 28, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Analyzing the Competitive Landscape

0

Jeff Quinton

Properly understanding the competitive landscape can be critical to your decision-making, especially in keeper leagues.

“Analyze process, not results.” With our most important strategic decisions behind us for this season, right now is a perfectly good time to take a look at our process. A part of “The Process” that often gets overlooked—that I know I have overlooked—is projecting the competitive landscape of our leagues. In a lot of articles, I discuss buyers and sellers, but in order to determine whether we are or will be a buyer or a seller, we first need to know where we currently and will stand. This seems pretty easy: take a look at the standings, see which teams have underperformed, overperformed, and performed as expected, take a guess at what they will do in the future, and there you have it. If it is a head to head league, you can take a look at future matchups, and if it is a rotisserie league you can take a look at the categories. Done and done.

The above was nearly my exact process for analyzing and projecting my leagues’ competitive landscapes. I would pay more attention to specific rankings if I was in the race for a title or playoff berth, but that was really it. As you guessed, this process did not work out very well. While it may seem harmless, the consequences of improperly projecting the competitive landscape can be very negative, especially in keeper leagues. This can cause us to sell when we actually had a chance to compete and buy when we really had no chances of winning. We know the consequences of poor projection, so let us take a look at the causes and what we can do to improve.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

August 25, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 22

4

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Domonic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

August 21, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Information, Humans, and Errors in Valuation

3

Jeff Quinton

"I was wrong" season for the fantasy team continues with a behavioral look at errors in forecasting how players will perform.

Seemingly out of nowhere, it has become “I was wrong” season for the Baseball Prospectus fantasy team. First, Craig Goldstein wrote about undervaluing Starling Marte, and then J.P. Breen wrote about undervaluing Yovani Gallardo. Both articles do an excellent job analyzing what each author missed regarding the specific player. What I hope to look at today is not what was missed about a specific player, but rather what parts of human behavior cause us to err when forecasting player production.

In order to do so, let us take a look at forecasting and what humans do when forecasting. My favorite definition of forecast (the verb) is from Merriam-Webster and it goes, “to predict after looking at the information available.” I like this definition because it is convenient for my article. I also like it because it highlights that our forecasts are dependent on “the information available.” Relatedly, in Thinking, Fast and Slow, our main human, Daniel Kahneman writes, “An essential design feature of the associative machine is that it represents only activated ideas.” Put differently, we cannot take into account that which we cannot imagine. I am throwing around a lot of combinations of words right now, so please allow me to simplify all this:

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

August 18, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 21

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Domonic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Premium article. To read it, sign up for Premium today!

August 11, 2014 10:25 am

Interleague Report: Week 20

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player who has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Domonic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player that is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

August 7, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: A Strategy Example From the Deadline

2

Jeff Quinton

Examining how the concepts about which Jeff writes can be applied to a real fantasy league scenario.

Less specifically, I type words. More specifically, I type words about the theories and concepts that surround fantasy baseball strategy. Every once in a while, it is worthwhile to zoom in a little, to take a look at an actual fantasy baseball example because it allows us to see how these concepts and theories can play out in our leagues. Consequently, I bring you a case study from my NL only keeper league (which also happens to be my favorite league). The trades and non-trades made by the top three teams in my league provide excellent studies on strategy, owner tendencies, competitive response, and trade markets as well as the interactions of all these concepts. Let us get cracking.

The League:
11 team, NL only, 5x5 roto, 15 major league keeper max, 4 minor league keeper max, 12 hitters/9 pitchers/1 utility slot.


The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

<< Previous Author Entries No More Author Entries