CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

Futures Guide 2014 is Now Available in Paperback and Three E-book Formats.

Premium and Super Premium Subscribers Get a 20% Discount at MLB.tv!

Jeff Quinton 

Search Articles by Jeff Quinton

All Blogs (including podcasts)

Active Columns

Authors

Article Types

Archives

07-24

comment icon

2

Fantasy Freestyle: Sustained Success and the Red Queen Hypothesis
by
Jeff Quinton

07-21

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week 17
by
Jeff Quinton

07-17

comment icon

8

Fantasy Freestyle: Midseason Keeper League FAAB Strategy
by
Jeff Quinton

07-14

comment icon

1

Interleague Report: Week 16
by
Jeff Quinton

07-10

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: League Norms and Trade Markets
by
Jeff Quinton

07-07

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week 15
by
Jeff Quinton

07-02

comment icon

4

Fantasy Freestyle: Minor League Draft Pick Valuation
by
Jeff Quinton

06-30

comment icon

2

Interleague Report: Week 14
by
Jeff Quinton

06-26

comment icon

5

Fantasy Freestyle: Weaknesses, Decision Framing, and Trades
by
Jeff Quinton

06-23

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week 13
by
Jeff Quinton

06-19

comment icon

3

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Paralysis
by
Jeff Quinton

06-16

comment icon

2

Interleague Report: Week 12
by
Jeff Quinton

06-13

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: In-Season Strategic Agility
by
Jeff Quinton

06-09

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week 11
by
Jeff Quinton

06-05

comment icon

6

Fantasy Freestyle: Keeper League Purgatory
by
Jeff Quinton

06-02

comment icon

1

Interleague Report: Week 10
by
Jeff Quinton

05-27

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week Nine
by
Jeff Quinton

05-22

comment icon

0

Fantasy Freestyle: Representativeness, Valuation, and Tanaka
by
Jeff Quinton

05-21

comment icon

13

Transaction Analysis: Stephen Drew and the Red Sox End the Suspense
by
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Quinton

05-19

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week Eight
by
Jeff Quinton

05-14

comment icon

6

Fantasy Freestyle: Growing the Pie
by
Jeff Quinton

05-12

comment icon

3

Interleague Report: Week Six
by
Jeff Quinton

05-07

comment icon

1

Fantasy Freestyle: Negotiation Styles
by
Jeff Quinton

05-05

comment icon

3

Interleague Report: Week Six
by
Jeff Quinton

04-28

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week Five
by
Jeff Quinton

04-28

comment icon

6

Fantasy Freestyle: Transaction Paralysis
by
Jeff Quinton

04-23

comment icon

5

Fantasy Freestyle: The Benefits of Early-Season Trade Talk
by
Jeff Quinton

04-21

comment icon

0

Interleague Report: Week Four
by
Jeff Quinton

04-16

comment icon

4

Fantasy Freestyle: Fighting Early-Season Confirmation Bias
by
Jeff Quinton

04-14

comment icon

1

Interleague Report: Week Three
by
Jeff Quinton

04-09

comment icon

8

Fantasy Freestyle: Buying Low, Letting Go, and the Disposition Effect
by
Jeff Quinton

04-07

comment icon

2

Interleague Report: Week Two
by
Jeff Quinton

04-02

comment icon

14

Fantasy Freestyle: Strategic Agility on Auction Day
by
Jeff Quinton

03-31

comment icon

6

The Miguel Cabrera Extension
by
Jeff Quinton

03-31

comment icon

5

Interleague Report: Week One
by
Jeff Quinton

03-27

comment icon

4

My Model Portfolio: Hopefully, No Scrubs
by
Jeff Quinton

03-24

comment icon

5

Fantasy Freestyle: Is it Really All Currency?
by
Jeff Quinton

03-20

comment icon

11

Fantasy Freestyle: Beating the Success Trap
by
Jeff Quinton

03-13

comment icon

10

Fantasy Freestyle: Raise Decisions and the Fantasy Win Curve
by
Jeff Quinton

03-06

comment icon

11

Fantasy Freestyle: Prospect Theory on Draft Day
by
Jeff Quinton

<< Previous Author Entries No More Author Entries

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

July 24, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Sustained Success and the Red Queen Hypothesis

2

Jeff Quinton

Outperforming your competition year after year requires not only improvement but also staying a step ahead.

While I have been providing mid-season strategy articles of late, I came across the Red Queen effect the other day and began thinking about its impact on fantasy baseball. As a result, this article holds relevance throughout the entire season (maybe more so in the offseason), but does not hold specific relevance to this point in the season.

I am most likely a better fantasy baseball player today than I was two years ago. You are most likely a better fantasy baseball player than you were two years ago. Anyone who has been playing fantasy baseball for some amount of time is probably better now than they were before. If we are all improving, then getting better is helpful in that we do not fall behind, but it does not necessarily get us ahead. And that, kiddos, is the kicker. In other words, improving yourself and gaining an advantage are two very different things. In order to consistently succeed, we need to both improve and gain an advantage, but competition makes this inherently difficult. We will take a look at why it is difficult to sustain success and if anything can be done to overcome those difficulties.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

July 21, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 17

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Dominic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

July 17, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Midseason Keeper League FAAB Strategy

8

Jeff Quinton

A look at how you should spend your free agent budget in keeper leagues to maximize value.

I was originally going to write this article on the impact of the winner’s curse on FAAB bidding, but in Google-checking my ideas before beginning to write them up, I came across this Erik Siegrist article. Am I the biggest fan of the name Eric(k) ending with a K? No. Is the article excellent and a must-read for those in keeper leagues? Absolutely. Does the article’s excellence make me feel self-conscious as a fantasy baseball writer? Yup (he pretty much wrote the article I wanted to write and wrote it better than I imagined I would). Anyhow, go read it.

The part I wish to expand on is midseason strategy. Come midseason, the FAAB market in keeper leagues tends to be markedly different than the market in the beginning of the season. Players who can help teams in the hunt almost always go above “keeper” value, leaving only players who will be of seemingly no use this year to potentially go at value or at a bargain. We have seen before that at this time of the year, when the goals of owners in keeper leagues diverge, discussion of strategy is important. Consequently, we will briefly discuss the winner’s curse and how that should impact the decision-making of owners depending on their competitive position.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

July 14, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 16

1

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Dominic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player who is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

July 10, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: League Norms and Trade Markets

0

Jeff Quinton

How understanding league norms could help you make the most of your fantasy swaps.

Many a fantasy baseball player is trying to make a trade right now. Many trades will be made that should not have been made. Many trades will not be made that should have been made. League norms, while usually helpful, can play a role in distorting fantasy baseball trades and trade talks. More specifically, league norms often cause us to make trades outside of what the market dictates. Again, this can cause trades that should be made to go unmade and trades that should not be made to be made. We will take a look at league norms and how they impact trades. We will then look at what we can do about it.

League Norms:
I am usually all into books and journal articles and stuff, but sometimes good ol’ Wikipedia has just what the internet writer ordered:


The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

July 7, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 15

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Dominic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player that is gaining at-bats.

Last Week

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

July 2, 2014 6:30 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Minor League Draft Pick Valuation

4

Jeff Quinton

As the peak of trade season approaches, it's worth thinking about how much prospect selections are actually worth.

Many a keeper league has a minor league draft to supplement the major league draft or auction; the trading of minor league draft picks is fairly common practice in these leagues. Often serving as the final pieces to help balance a trade, the value of these picks can range from incredibly valuable to having almost no value depending on the structure and rules of the league. Proper valuation of minor league draft picks is thus critical when making a trade that includes these draft picks. Today we look at several key factors to take into account when trading away or trading for draft picks. By looking at these factors, I mean that there are typed words on them below:

Number of minor league slots in the league (Minor League Depth)
The more minor league keeper spots in a league, the less valuable the picks become. All other variables made equal, the minor league picks in a 16-team league with four minor leaguers per team are more valuable than the picks in a 16-team league with five minor leaguers per team. Why? Because, in theory, the top 64 (16x4) fantasy prospects would be owned in the first league, whereas the top 80 (16x5) prospects would be owned in the second league. Therefore, come next year’s minor league drafts, more top prospects would be available in the first league than the second league. Also, prospects that make significant improvements—the ones that jump up real and fantasy lists—are less likely to be owned in the first league than the second league. What are not different between the two leagues, generally, are the top prospects available from the most recent MLB minor league draft. Because prospects from the most recent MLB minor league draft are usually the best players for our fantasy minor league drafts (with the exception being the previously mentioned un-owned players that have made large strides), the first handful of picks in minor league drafts will be the same regardless of minor league depth. The true difference in value of minor league draft picks, as determined by minor league depth, is thus the value of the picks that follow these top picks from the MLB minor league draft. In leagues with shallow minor league depth, a bottom first round pick will probably be a top-50 fantasy prospect. In leagues with deep minor league depth, a bottom first round pick might not be a top 100 fantasy prospect.


The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 30, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 14

2

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs.-NL and NL-vs.-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Dominic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player that is gaining at bats.

Last Week

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 26, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Weaknesses, Decision Framing, and Trades

5

Jeff Quinton

When looking for ways to improve your fantasy team, it's important not to mistake weaknesses for opportunities.

Narrow or incorrect decision framing will lead to bad decisions. This is nothing new. I even did a primer, an overview one could say, on decision framing (here). In short, by taking too narrow a view of a particular decision, we may miss out on less obvious, more optimal options. Today, we will be bringing this conversation on decision framing down to a more specific level; that level being how we go about trading to improve our team. For this article, I will keep the conversation to redraft leagues; however, the concepts can certainly be applied to any league.

When looking to improve our team, the first thing we tend to do is look to improve our biggest weaknesses. Brief example: if our pitchers are terrible and our hitters are good, then we look to trade hitting for pitching. The “fix your weaknesses” strategy is not exclusive to fantasy baseball either. In business we use resources to grow in markets where we are underrepresented, we perform the most analysis on how to improve our weakest brands, and we take the most time to make decision about our least profitable products. In baseball, we ask if a prolific minor leaguer would be able to handle a position switch in order to replace our least prolific major leaguer, we ask if we are better off finding a platoon partner for a hitter who is really struggling against lefties, etc. Our obsession with weaknesses seems innate.

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 23, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 13

0

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups, and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Dominic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player that is gaining at bats.

Last Week

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 19, 2014 6:00 am

Fantasy Freestyle: Trade Paralysis

3

Jeff Quinton

A look at ways to alleviate the fear that sometimes accompanies a seemingly fair trade proposal.

This article starts with a feeling. That feeling being the one you get when you contemplate a particular type of trade offer—a fair trade offer. You know the feeling I am talking about, I know you do. The exhilaration and excitement come first, but these feelings are quickly washed over by another, stronger feeling—fear. At this point, you are beyond the constructive weighing of pros and cons; your mind is simply racing with every conceivable negative outcome. Maybe your fears are like mine, and maybe they sometimes go something like this:

“This guy throws sliders 30 percent of the time and his mechanics aren’t great. Is he due for a DL stint?” “I know 32 is not that old, but he did play in 15 less games in 2013 than he did in 2012.” “Is his strikeout rate trending the wrong way?” “This guy’s true talent is better, but he has the same amount of homers that my guy has right now. Is it really an upgrade?” “I’m trading away current production for potential future production that might never be realized. This might end up looking really bad for me.” “Am I giving up too much with no guarantee that this will significantly improve my team?”

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

This is a BP Fantasy article. To read it, sign up today!

June 16, 2014 6:00 am

Interleague Report: Week 12

2

Jeff Quinton

A look at the upcoming AL-vs-NL and NL-vs-AL matchups and how they might affect teams' lineups.

Please note that in the “DH” column, the player listed is the player that has been added or removed from the lineup, not necessarily the player in the DH slot. For example, if the Phillies move Dominic Brown to DH and put Tony Gwynn Jr. in the OF, then I will list Gwynn Jr. in the “DH” column because he is the player that is gaining at bats.

Last Week

The remainder of this post cannot be viewed at this subscription level. Please click here to subscribe.

<< Previous Author Entries No More Author Entries