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July 9, 2009
Future Shock
Big Steps Backwards
by Kevin Goldstein
After looking at some great leaps forward yesterday, let's flip the coin and look at ten Top 100 Prospects who have failed to live up to expectations—and in some cases, haven’t even come close.
Yonder Alonso, 1B, Reds (Pre-season ranking: 35)
When the Reds selected Alonso in last year's draft, the confusion didn't revolve around why they liked him as much as why they liked him better than Justin Smoak. While Smoak is on the verge of making it to the big leagues, Alonso got off to a good start in the Florida State League, but he scuffled at Double-A while showing well below the kind of power that was expected. Concerns about his ability to hit left-handers also remain; while the sample size is small, he's 9-for-43 against southpaws without a home run. He'll get little chance to make improvements from there, as a broken hamate bone could cost him the remainder of the season.
Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pirates (Pre-season ranking: 4)
His disappointing junior year was written off as the result of a broken hand, but what excuses do we have now? Batting .240/.322/.479 across two levels, Alvarez has certainly shown off his tremendous raw power, but it's come at the price of 87 strikeouts in 288 at-bats, and scouting reports that say he'll need to move across the diamond to first base sooner rather than later.
Lars Anderson, 1B, Red Sox (Pre-season ranking: 17)
Entering the year as the top prospect in the Red Sox system, Anderson was seen as on the verge of something special, with a possible September callup. Even more disturbing than his .262/.356/.407 line that includes just eight home runs in 275 at-bats are consistent scouting reports from multiple sources that now project him as no more than a second-division starter in the big leagues.
Engel Beltre, OF, Rangers (Pre-season ranking: 68)
All the tools in the world and an assignment to the high-octane California League looked like the perfect formula for a breakout, but nothing has gone in the right direction for him. Beltre's swing-at-anything approach has led to more advanced pitching simply giving him nothing to hit, thus the miserable batting line .220/.271/.302.
<< Previous Article
Transaction Analysis B... (07/09)
|
<< Previous Column
Future Shock: Great Le... (07/08)
|
Next Column >>
Future Shock: Futures ... (07/12)
|
Next Article >>
Under The Knife: Rewin... (07/09)
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This article and the last one have been great! Thanks.
Which of the players on this list do you think has the best shot to turn it around in the second half and end up the year at the same level they started at? Obviously not Alonso, Jeffress, or Main, but it seems to that if all Hosmer needs is a new batting stance, he could take off in the second half. Or is retooling a batting stance too tough to do in-season? Also, it looks like Alvarez and, to a lesser extent, Moustakas are at least showing good power, so I could see them improving their batting eye and contact skills as the season wears on and ending up the year with pretty good numbers.