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June 22, 2009

Future Shock

Monday Ten Pack

by Kevin Goldstein

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Jeff Bianchi, SS, Royals (Double-A Northwest Arkansas)
A second-round pick in 2005, Bianchi received plenty of hype when he hit .408 in his pro debut, but his prospect status dimmed considerably after a pair of sub-.300 OBPs at Low- and High-A. This year, he's suddenly hitting again, as the 22-year-old was batting .300/.360/.427 in his second go-round at High-A Wilmington before moving up to the Texas League, where he went 5-for-12 with four doubles over the weekend in his first three games for the Naturals. While some question his range at shortstop, he's a fundamentally sound defender, and if he keeps hitting like this, he's going to find himself back on many Royals prospect lists.

Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs (High-A Daytona)
One of the most surprising assignments this spring occurred when the Cubs sent 19-year-old Castro to High-A Daytona after he had only played in the complex league last summer, putting him one level ahead of a more polished college product, Ryan Flaherty, a supplemental first-round pick. (Flaherty was instead installed at short for Single-A Peoria.) Castro has certainly held up his end of the bargain, hitting .291/.324/.371 and earning Florida State League all-star game MVP honors on Saturday by going 4-for-4 with a home run. There is still some roughness to his play, as in 59 games he's drawn just nine walks while committing 22 errors, but overall, his performance has his stock soaring.

Dee Gordon, SS, Dodgers (Single-A Great Lakes)
It's possible that no prospect excites me as much as Gordon has this year. He's reeled off seven straight multi-hit games as part of an 11-game hitting streak, during which he has gone 22-for-45 to boost his season averages to .308/.372/.405, with his blinding speed adding eight triples and 40 stolen bases. The thing is, when you ask scouts about him, all they talk about is how incredibly raw he is. He's getting this done on almost pure athleticism alone, and the gap between what he is now and what he can be is still massive. While it will require more research and discussion, I'm becoming convinced that he's the top prospect in the Dodgers' system right now.

Aaron Hicks, OF, Twins (Single-A Beloit)
When Hicks began the 2009 season in extended spring training, most assumed that the 2008 first-round pick would be on the Ben Revere plan and would join the Single-A Beloit squad by May. When that didn't happen, it looked as if the Twins, who lean toward the conservative side when it comes to pushing players, would simply send him to the Appy League. Then, when the short-season leagues began, Hicks suddenly showed up in Beloit, where he went 3-for-8 with a double and four walks over the weekend in his season debut. The debate over which Twins center-field prospect you'd rather have-the bigger, toolsier Hicks, or the guaranteed hit machine in Ben Revere-will continue to rage throughout the summer.

Casey Kelly, RHP/SS, Red Sox (High-A Salem)
After putting up a 1.12 ERA in nine starts for Single-A Greenville, Boston's 2008 first-round pick has had little trouble continuing his dominance as a 19-year-old in High-A, and after he threw six shutout innings on Sunday while allowing just one hit, the Carolina League is now batting just .192 against him. The sad thing is that Kelly's season as a pitcher is about to come to an end. Despite some significant struggles in his pro debut as a hitter, Kelly still wants to give hitting a chance, and the Red Sox agreed to a half-and-half season this year, so after only one or two more starts, he'll head down to Florida to finish the year as a shortstop. If there's a silver lining here, his arm should certainly stay fresh, as more scouts than ever are convinced that his true future will find him standing on the mound, as opposed to at the plate.

Hak-Ju Lee, SS, Cubs (Short-Season Boise)
Perhaps the biggest prize netted out of Asia last year when the Cubs doled out a $725,000 bonus to sign Lee, Lee's pro debut has been delayed, as his elbow went pop and he required Tommy John surgery shortly after signing. Still only 18 years old, Lee was impressive enough this spring to earn a surprising assignment to Boise, and so far, so good, as he went 5-for-9 with a double and a stolen base in his first two professional games.

Jordan Lyles, RHP, Astros (Single-A Lexington)
Houston's supplemental first-round pick last year out of a South Carolina high school, no pitcher in the Sally League has been generating more buzz of late than Lyles. On Sunday, he tied his season high with 11 strikeouts while allowing just two hits over six shutout innings, and it was his third double-digit effort for strikeouts in his past four starts, made all the more impressive by pitch counts that have limited him to 26 batters faced or fewer each time out. With 98 strikeouts in 78 2/3 innings, Lyles now leads the minor leagues in that category, and with a fastball that's consistently been clocked up to 94-95 mph as well as a rapidly improving power curveball, signs are good that he's going to rack up plenty more.

Bud Norris, RHP, Astros (Triple-A Round Rock)
Norris really shined last year when he pitched out of the bullpen in the Arizona Fall League and his velocity sat in the mid-90s. While most scouts have always preferred him as a future reliever, the Astros are still doing the right thing and not writing him off as a starter until absolutely necessary. On Saturday night, Norris delivered his best outing of the year, firing eight shutout innings while allowing three hits and striking out a season-high ten. His 2.11 ERA leads the Pacific Coast League, and he could be getting a big-league look soon.

Rudy Owens, LHP, Pirates (Single-A West Virginia)
Identified last week as a sleeper in the Pirates' system, Owens is quickly advancing to full-fledged prospect; he went five perfect innings on Sunday while striking out seven, to give him 20 scoreless innings in his last three starts while allowing only five hits, striking out 24, and not walking a batter. His average-velocity fastball plays up due to pinpoint location, his changeup is a true plus offering, and he's got a big, physical frame with clean mechanics that are built to last. In a system desperate for pitching prospects, Owens has suddenly become a nice find.

Lance Zawadzki, 3B/SS, Padres (Double-A San Antonio)
A fourth-round pick out of an NAIA school in Tennessee in 2007, Zawadzki hit a solid but unspectacular .273/.352/.399 at Low-A Fort Wayne last year, but still he provided some things to like beyond his athleticism, including a patient approach with 54 walks, as well as 28 stolen bases in 31 attempts. He found his power stroke this year, batting .276/.360/.552 in 36 California League games with ten home runs, and now he's trying to prove that the showing wasn't a California League mirage. Pushed to Double-A at the end of May, Zawadzki has just one home run in 78 Texas League at-bats, but he's certainly hitting, going 15-for-21 in his last five games, including a perfect 6-for-6 night on Saturday to lift his San Antonio averages to .372/.456/.500 in 21 games. It would be inaccurate to suddenly start calling him a big-time prospect, but there is something there.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Kevin's other articles. You can contact Kevin by clicking here

Related Content:  A's,  Single

21 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Robert Flaxman

Two guys from the Cubs organization listed! My heart just started beating again.

Jun 22, 2009 10:58 AM
rating: 1
 
MikeJordan23

Daniel Descalso needs to start getting some props. .329/.405/.531 with 6 HRs in AA, playing second base, and only 22 years old.

Jun 22, 2009 11:08 AM
rating: -1
 
DGBL

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9025

Jun 22, 2009 11:42 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

You're my kinda guy.

Jun 22, 2009 15:26 PM
 
BillJohnson

Speaking of Cardinals MIFs, is Peter Kozma showing realistic signs of life? His line for the past couple of weeks is looking a great deal more encouraging than it had been. I know, small sample size...

Jun 22, 2009 11:42 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

It is small sample size, but I have to admit, his name has been catching my eye lately, so he's on my radar.

Jun 22, 2009 15:26 PM
 
JD Sussman

Kevin,

How do you feel about Nick Barnese thus far? Seems like him and more are making quite the duo...

Jun 22, 2009 11:33 AM
rating: 0
 
battlekow

Barnese is in today's MLU:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9104

Jun 22, 2009 14:38 PM
rating: 0
 
David Coonce

Kevin,

Padres fan glad to see Zawadzki get a mention. Do scouts think he can stay at short?

Jun 22, 2009 11:36 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

He's pretty fringy there -- I think in the end, he might be a nice utility type.

Jun 22, 2009 15:27 PM
 
wonkothesane1

I'm glad Zawadzki got a mention here. Going 6-6 is fantastic! He's definitely peaked the interest of this SS starved Padres fan when he was in Lake Elsinore, but seemed a little old for the Cal League. I loved the move of seeing what he could do in the Texas League and it's nice to see that he can hold his own there. It seems like there's now a reasonable chance he could shoot for a big league debut before turning 26 (May 2011).

Jun 22, 2009 11:43 AM
rating: 0
 
Cloochmere

What can you tell me about 2005 supp. first rounder Trevor Bell? He just made his second start at AAA and lowered his season ERA to 1.81. At 22 yo, what is his ceiling?

Jun 22, 2009 11:43 AM
rating: 0
 
Sal T

Kevin, from what I can tell you still aren't doing enough. My god man how could you not give Daniel Descalso his props? Some suggestions:

You hold a chat every other day so that we fans can ask about our favorite prospect du jour in a timely manner.

You increase this list to a top 100 so its more inclusive of those deserving props. In fact you should be flexible and increase it to 101 or 102 as the need arises.

Write more columns on the draft so that every single pick becomes a household name. Then when a reader asks about a player he won't seem so obscure to the rest of us.

Drop the monday 10 pack and make it a saturday 25 pack so you'll have something to do on the weekends.

Make your BP Idol comments a little longer so you can squeeze in a prop or two to some prospect thereby killing two birds with one stone.

Sure you can write about players from asia from what a scout tells you but have you ever been there? More field trips to the far east to help with your cred(to stay with the vernacular).

Offer to give Kiley McDaniel a hand when you have some free time and get familiar with the Dominican Republic. They heve prospects too you know.

Hope I was of some help.




Jun 22, 2009 12:11 PM
rating: 12
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Sal,

I already have an agent, but if things don't work out, I know where to go next.

Jun 22, 2009 15:28 PM
 
R.A.Wagman

Kevin, this might not be the place for it, but a suggestion/question that may spawn a fun discussion/article: not looking at '09 draft picks, have any systems surprised you in a good way? A bad way? This may give some insight into something more systematic than a random player exceeding expectations a-la Derek Holland last year, but maybe why the Astros' system may be better than it appeared in the off-season, or why the hype given to the Yankees' system may be off-base.

Jun 22, 2009 13:57 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Kevin Goldstein
BP staff

Going to certainly do some mid-season stuff on a prospect level, but you are not the first to ask for a team one, so I'll try to squeeze it in.

Jun 22, 2009 15:30 PM
 
aso5018

Rudy Owens is becoming a dominant force can't wait to see him in Lynchburg by probably this weekend.

Jun 22, 2009 14:24 PM
rating: 0
 
Shawn Doyle

Obviously the Cubs system isn't all that great outside of Vitters, but they have a real nice selection of young shortstops. Barney, Lee, Flaherty and Castro.

Jun 22, 2009 15:53 PM
rating: 0
 
mswain784

Junior lake has very good upside too.

Jun 22, 2009 20:34 PM
rating: 0
 
buddaley

Have you heard anything further about Tim Beckham's defense? I saw him play this weekend, and it seemed to me that he usually took 2-3 extra steps before throwing and then threw off the wrong foot anyway. The one time he seemed to throw quickly and on balance, he was saved an error by a great stretch and split by Sheridan at 1B.

From your information, was I seeing a problem he needs to correct?

Jun 22, 2009 19:27 PM
rating: 0
 
Nater1177

Kevin, great work as always, how unique is the 'Casey Kelly experiment' at least for an upper level draft pick? Is the decision going to come from the Sox or the kid ultimately as to what he will 'be'. Or is it going about as well as the Sox could hope, he dominates on the mound and (presumably) is mediocre afield and at the plate given that he's likely paid less attention to hitting/fielding this season to date. Then they hope the kid makes the decision for them without them having to force on him. Anyway was just curious if in this era of pitch and inning limits for young 'uns, someone else had tried the split season route. Since it would seem some kids would run up against system mandated inning limits earlier and earlier in the year. And how many innings could he be expected to pitch next year? 120-130?

Jun 22, 2009 23:26 PM
rating: 0
 
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