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June 11, 2009

TA Special

The Untradeable?

by Christina Kahrl

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The few, the proud, the... untradeable? When the Padres' Jake Peavy exercised his right to torpedo a deal that would have sent him to Chicago's South Side to try and help keep the White Sox' bid for a successful title defense going, there was plenty of gnashing of teeth. That said, with a deal on the table, it was Peavy himself who elected to make himself untradeable. While that doesn't make him less desirable to add for an aspiring contender looking for an ace, it does provide a gateway to the question of which players might be even more deeply rooted in place on their rosters. Who's truly untradeable?

As much as we might start off with a group of names driven entirely by salary considerations alone, we've already seen Alex Rodriguez, then as now the most expensive player in baseball, dealt once, and that was while he was in possession of a no-trade clause. We can also probably count out equally obvious fan favorites, whether that's Ichiro Suzuki in Seattle or Derek Jeter in the Bronx or Albert Pujols in St. Louis. Were any of those men traded, the subsequent riots would probably make tearing down the Bastille look like a tea party. No, if we want to talk about who's untradeable, we should talk about the players who their employers might wish they could deal, but effectively cannot.

We can start with the truly obvious answer: the Rockies' Todd Helton, whether as a matter of his already-achieved 10-and-5 rights and his full no-trade clause, his increasingly checkered track record as far as his health, or the dodgy performance record that has seen him decline from one of the best pure hitters in baseball in any environment to a relatively power-less platoonable player at a power position. All of that comes before we get into the sheer expense involved with employing him. He has three years left to run on a deal that still rates as one of the ten largest ever inked in major league history. Through 2011, the nine-year deal's final third will pay him $52.3 million (not to mention the $4.3 million it will cost to buy out a $23 million club option for 2012). When you consider that PECOTA's valuation metric, MORP (for Marginal value Over Replacement Player) says that Helton's projected production at first base might be worth only $3.6 million over the annual minimum salary for the remainder of his career, you can see that the team paid a heavy price to retain Helton as the face of the franchise when they gave him that nine-year extension back in 2003. They got value through 2007, but now they'll have to pay the piper barring another monstrously complicated money-munching swap like the deal that made Mike Hampton go away in November of 2002. With that feat to his credit, Dan O'Dowd may be able to never say never, but it's a lot easier for teams to find an effective first baseman than an altitude-battered starting pitcher.

Hampton's unhappy past brings us to another formerly famous lefty turned white elephant-the Giants' Barry Zito. When Zito signed his seven-year, $126 million deal, he passed Hampton's former landmark for the biggest contract ever handed out to a hurler (a record since broken by CC Sabathia and Johan Santana). If he'd managed to at least hold up his end, the Giants wouldn't be feeling their current regret, but not even a move to the DH-less league could mask a pitcher with strikeout and walk rates headed in the wrong directions. His Support-Neutral Winning Percentage has bounced from .529 to .466 in 2008 to this year's employable .546-the kind of performance you can use in a big-league rotation, but when you're paying somebody $18.5 million this year, and owe him at least $83 million for the next four, and that's tied to a full no-trade clause that has no sunset rider, the Giants can take cold comfort that they're employing history's most expensive fourth starter. Add in that he's a native Californian, and the odds that he'll ever leave that city by the bay drop from unlikely to near impossibility.

Positional value and market forces usually combine to create some hard-driven deals, but how do you explain the Astros' predicament with Carlos Lee? A left fielder who was already looking very DH-y when he was inked to a surprising six-year, $100 million deal, the slugger's locked in place with a no-trade window that extends through 2010. The deal will still have two more years (and $37 million) to run once that clause winks out of existence, but how many teams can you expect will want to trade for a 35-year-old big man to park at DH or kill grass with his shadow after planting him in left, let alone invest in the hope he won't lose too much of his power leaving the Crawford Boxes behind him?

After that, we can get into a few lamentable add-ons. Take Vernon Wells' situation in Toronto; signed through 2014, whatever Wells' merits as a defender and as an occasionally good hitter, and however willing he might someday be to waive his full no-trade clause, he's owed $98.5 million from 2010 to the deal's conclusion. Nobody was going to afford that before the economy imploded, and the Jays might be allergic to swallowing the kind of money it could take to ever make the deal go down. Or the A's deal with Eric Chavez-inked at a time when people were bandying about comparisons to Barry Bonds, but at third base, his subsequent, sad litany of injuries probably makes any willingness in Oakland to eat a chunk of the $11 million he's owed this year, or the $12 million due next, completely besides the point. Challenged with a different problem altogether would be someone like the Royals' Jose Guillen-having alienated so many of his former employers, the list of teams willing to put up with his short fuse is already abbreviated; add in his salary of $12 million per annum this season and next, and nobody might be interested. And then we may have a special wing set aside for the Cubs-if Milton Bradley melts down or it turns out he can't really handle right field, will anyone want to take on those risks when they come attached to $21 million for the next two season? Bradley might not even be the most untradeable Cub. that would probably be Kosuke Fukudome, whose now-you-see-it/now-you-don't production reinvents the concept of what it means to go streaking, and with his no-trade clause and salaries of $11.5 million, $13 million, and $13.5 million through 2011, Cubs fans can expect to buckle in for an especially lengthy roller coaster ride.

A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider Insider.

Christina Kahrl is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Christina's other articles. You can contact Christina by clicking here

Related Content:  No-Trade Clause,  Deal,  The Who

23 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

buffum
(458)

Travis Hafner's deal looks pretty bad in retrospect. I don't think he has a no-trade clause, but ... practically speaking, his contract is a no-trade clause.

Jun 11, 2009 12:03 PM
rating: 1
 
ElAngelo
(942)

I think Carlos Zambrano may have both Milton Bradley and Fukudome beat.

Jun 11, 2009 12:09 PM
rating: 0
 
jgbauer

How can you not mention Carlos Silva? Talk about an albatross.....

Jun 11, 2009 12:47 PM
rating: 0
 
mikebuetow

Until David Ortiz can prove he can still outhit Carlos Zambrano, he belongs on this list too.

Jun 11, 2009 13:01 PM
rating: 0
 
Robert Flaxman

Fukudome has produced pretty well so far this year - yes, he disappeared last year, but that was his first season in the majors. Let's at least give him a second before writing the book on him.

Jun 11, 2009 13:20 PM
rating: 0
 
Tsuyoi

I agree. While Fukudome now seems to be overpaid, he's not hitting too badly and is a decent enough defender. I think his .417 OBP would be tradeable.

Jun 12, 2009 07:07 AM
rating: 0
 
JayhawkBill

The absence of mention of David Ortiz and Julio Lugo from this article demonstrates how the Boston Red Sox always get less media attention than teams such as the Rockies, the Royals, the Blue Jays, and the A's.

Jun 11, 2009 13:36 PM
rating: 9
 
JoeSky60

Well spoke!

Jun 11, 2009 13:50 PM
rating: 0
 
jrbdmb

That damn West Coast bias always seem to show itself here at BP. Anyhow, look at the Yankees potential albatrosses:

- ARod, $238M plus incentives for 2009 - 2017
- Sabathia - $152M for 2009-1015
- Texiera - $175M for 2009 - 2016
- Burnett - $82.5M for 2009 - 2013
- Posada - $39.3M for 2009 - 2011

The Red Sox with $42M due to Drew, $25M due Ortiz, $39.1M due Youk, $38.5 due Pedroia, and $30M due Lester seems like misers by comparison.

Jun 11, 2009 14:17 PM
rating: -1
 
misterjohnny
(925)

Juan Pierre says Hi!

Jun 11, 2009 13:47 PM
rating: 1
 
buffum
(458)

I think you might be surprised by Pierre's movability: the Dodgers could conceivably eat half the contract and someone would take him. I hope my team doesn't, but I could certainly imagine this more than most of the other guys on this list.

Jun 11, 2009 14:28 PM
rating: 2
 
havens


Why would the money owed to Youkilis, Pedroia or Lester be considered unmovable? Any team in baseball would acquire any one of those 3, money included, in a heartbeat.

Jun 11, 2009 14:30 PM
rating: 1
 
jrbdmb

In my post above, I meant to imply (poorly it seems) that the Red Sox contracts mentioned are quite movable, with the possible exception of Drew.

Jun 12, 2009 06:30 AM
rating: 0
 
JayhawkBill

I suspect that Boston would find it challenging to move either Lugo or Ortiz without picking up most or all of their respective contracts. To a lesser extent, that might go for Drew, too, but J.D. Drew is still a good right fielder with streaks of both elusive greatness and nagging injury. David Ortiz is a pure DH struggling to stay atop the Mendoza Line, and Lugo is a singles-hitting shortstop trying to keep his UZR/150 above -40.

Jun 13, 2009 15:23 PM
rating: 0
 
jillsinmo

Hey, what about me?

Signed,

Gary Matthews, Jr.

Jun 11, 2009 15:01 PM
rating: 6
 
gaucho777

Even before landing on the DL once again (rehab currently halted), I don't think anyone was going to call the Dodgers asking about Jason Schmidt and his $15 salary. And I agree with JayhawkBill re Lugo.

Jun 11, 2009 15:10 PM
rating: 3
 
Mod518

Along with the other players that have been mentioned above i would throw Michael Young's name in the mix. He is under contract for an absurd 16 million a year through 2013 for a guy that has never hit more then 25 homers in that park?

Jun 11, 2009 15:47 PM
rating: 1
 
mcbellows

Any love for Kei Igawa, the highest paid minor league pitcher around.

Jun 11, 2009 18:57 PM
rating: 4
 
Shaun P.
(676)

No, but when you consider that $26M of the $46M Igawa costs the Yanks went to his posting fee - the ~$10M still owed to him is peanuts. He's untradeable because he stinks, not because the money is odious (or both).

Jun 12, 2009 06:33 AM
rating: 0
 
sbnirish77

Bradley

2009 $4 mil bonus $ 5 mil salary
2010 $9 mil salary
2010 $12 mil salary

from the Cub Reporter.com ...

Jon Heyman at SI claims to have seen Milton Bradley's contract, and says the clause that would automatically kick-in the third year is that he needs to spend fewer than 75 days on the disabled list in 2009 to guarantee the full amount.

When it was first reported, Wittenmyer said it was a multilayered set of clauses, so I'm guessing the wording and legalese is a little more complicated than just spending less than those 75 days, maybe there's something about it not being due to a specific injury.

I don't think it is entirely clear what option / cluses cover Bradley's third year but I've seen repeated reports 9not here at BP) that some clause exists.

Jun 12, 2009 14:28 PM
rating: 1
 
Jason Brannon
(76)

The Cubs' biggest contract problem isn't Bradley or Fukodome--it's Derrick Lee. He's getting nearly $15 million this year and next while putting up Mark Grace-like numbers. Meanwhile, Jake Fox is at AAA having perhaps the best 1/4 of a minor league season in history and the Cubs can't slot him in the lineup.

Phil Hendry has the same problem nearly every other GM has: they can't ignore sunk costs. If Derrick Lee were making $2 million he'd have been tossed out by now.

Jun 13, 2009 20:48 PM
rating: 0
 
eighteen

errr.. JIM Hendry has the same problem most other GMs have - he doesn't understand the concept of sunk costs; which is that, being unavoidable, they shouldn't impact decision-making.

Jun 14, 2009 09:11 AM
rating: 0
 
James Martin Cole

You really take exception with the Cubs playing Derrek Lee over Jake Fox? Lee's having a somewhat productive year (and has been locked in as of late) and has a very solid history of putting up good OBPs and playing a solid first base. Jake Fox is a 26 year old career minor leaguer whose career minor league OBP isn't as good as D. Lee's OBP this year.

I don't really think this is a sunk cost issue; I think it's a Jake Fox is a AAAA scrub issue.

Jun 16, 2009 08:23 AM
rating: 0
 
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