<< PECOTA Home Player Search     

J.D. Drew
Boston Red Sox [ Team Audit ] [ Depth Chart ]
Right Field
Bats L
Age 32
6' 1"
200 lbs.

Player Profile

Other References
Baseball Prospectus DT Player Card
baseball-reference Player Card
ESPN Player Card
tsn.ca Player Card

Sections
Historical Stats | 2008 Forecast | Diagnostics | Seven-Year Forecast | Valuation | Most Comparable Players | Player Comments

Projected Playing Time

Red Sox Depth Chart (updated: 04-24)
PosOrderNamePT%PA AVG R HR RBI SB OBP SLG VORP
RF 7 J.D. Drew 70 470 .268 60 10 57 3 .368 .422 8.4
1   2008 Total 70 470 .268 60 10 57 3 .368 .422 8.4

Historical Stats

-- Equivalents --
Year Tm Lg PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2005 LAN MJ 311 48 12 1 15 36 51 50 1 1 -1.3 .286 .412 .520 .302 .286 .410 .528 .319 26.9 43-RF 1 4.0
2006 LAN MJ 594 84 34 6 20 100 89 106 2 3 2.3 .283 .393 .498 .210 .280 .392 .492 .302 34.9 125-RF 16 7.4
2007 BOS MJ 552 84 30 4 11 64 79 100 4 2 0.5 .270 .373 .423 .058 .263 .375 .433 .284 15.1 120-RF -8 3.2


EQA Distribution

Seven-Year WARP

2008 Forecast

(projection generated 3/18/08 9:26 AM)
-- Equivalents --
Percentile PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
90o 512 80 30 3 14 68 73 91 5 2 0.1 .290 .394 .475 .169 .282 .390 .485 .308 26.7 121-RF -2 4.9
75o 486 70 28 3 12 62 67 87 4 2 0.1 .280 .382 .450 .111 .272 .378 .460 .297 18.6 115-RF -1 4.1
60o 457 59 25 2 10 56 61 82 4 2 0.1 .269 .369 .424 .048 .261 .365 .433 .285 10.6 108-RF -1 3.4
50o 447 56 24 2 10 54 59 81 4 2 0.1 .265 .365 .415 .027 .258 .361 .424 .281 8.2 106-RF -1 3.2
40o 437 53 23 2 9 52 57 79 4 2 0.1 .262 .360 .407 .007 .254 .357 .416 .277 5.9 104-RF 0 2.9
25o 411 46 21 2 8 48 52 75 3 2 0.1 .252 .349 .385 -.046 .246 .346 .394 .267 0.3 98-RF 0 2.4
10o 351 31 16 1 5 37 41 65 3 2 0.1 .232 .324 .337 -.162 .226 .321 .345 .242 -9.4 84-RF 0 1.3
Weighted Mean 485 65 26 2 11 61 65 87 4 2 0.1 .268 .368 .422 .043 .261 .364 .431 .283 8.9 115-RF 0 3.7

Diagnostics

Breakout Rate Improve Rate Collapse Rate Attrition Rate Beta

5%

28%

32%

15%

0.79

Seven-Year Forecast

-- Equivalents --
Year PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG OBP SLG MLVr AVG OBP SLG EqA VORP Defense WARP
2008 (age 32) 485 65 26 2 11 61 65 87 4 2 0.1 .268 .368 .422 .043 .261 .364 .431 .283 8.9 115-RF 0 3.7
2009 (age 33) 409 48 21 2 8 48 52 75 3 2 0.1 .263 .360 .409 .009 .260 .361 .425 .276 5.4 98-RF -2 2.6
2010 (age 34) 324 35 16 1 8 41 42 57 2 1 0.0 .267 .364 .420 .033 .263 .365 .437 .280 5.3 78-RF -2 1.9
2011 (age 35) 362 42 19 2 9 46 48 65 3 2 0.0 .266 .365 .423 .039 .263 .367 .440 .282 4.3 87-RF -4 1.4
2012 (age 36) 360 41 18 2 8 46 47 61 3 1 0.0 .266 .363 .421 .033 .263 .365 .438 .281 3.2 87-RF -4 1.2
2013 (age 37) 339 38 16 1 8 43 44 56 3 1 0.0 .269 .367 .416 .035 .266 .369 .433 .281 2.6 82-RF -2 0.9
2014 (age 38) 243 23 12 1 5 27 29 39 2 1 0.0 .265 .355 .404 -.003 .262 .357 .420 .272 0.9 60-RF -5 0.5

Platoon

Platoon AVG OBP SLG
vs LHP .246 .342 .377
vs RHP .276 .384 .460
Split -.030 -.042 -.083
LgAvg -.035 -.040 -.079

Valuation

Year OWARP DWARP Tot WARP MORP SuperVORP Upside
2008 2.3 1.4 3.7 $6,800,000 11.3 8.0
2009 1.7 0.9 2.6 $4,325,000 5.6 4.3
2010 1.4 0.6 1.9 $3,300,000 4.7 5.8
2011 1.1 0.4 1.4 $2,425,000 3.1 3.1
2012 0.9 0.3 1.2 $2,025,000 2.4 2.6
2013 0.7 0.3 0.9 $1,800,000 2.4 2.5
2014 0.3 0.2 0.5 $825,000 -0.2 0.8
Peak 11.8 $16,225,000 29.4 26.4


Stars & Scrubs Chart

Career Path Analysis


Seven-Year Performance
Year 75% 50% 25% Weighted Mean
2008 .297 .281 .267 .283
2009 .288 .274 .259 .276
2010 .296 .277 .245 .280
2011 .295 .274 .256 .282
2012 .301 .275 .258 .281
2013 .297 .276 .234 .281
2014 .287 .260 .233 .272


Seven-Year Attrition
Year Attrition Rate Drop Rate Breakout
2008 15% 0% 5%
2009 25% 7% 3%
2010 54% 16% 6%
2011 67% 41% 3%
2012 73% 54% 5%
2013 79% 63% 2%
2014 90% 75% 0%

Player Comments

Click on the year to report a comment problem (misspelling, premature cutoff, weird characters or rendering, etc.)

2007

After an injury-marred inaugural season as a Dodger, not to mention a pair of offseason surgeries (wrist and knee), Drew put the lie to his critics in 2006. Despite aches and pains, he avoided the DL all season and reached a career high in games played; ten pinch-hit appearances padded the total, but credit Grady Little with successfully managing his workload. Though a midsummer power outage saw him go eight weeks without a homer, Drew rediscovered his stroke in September and helped key the Wild Card run, hitting .317/.462/.683 with six home runs for the month. As the season wound down, Drew spoke of declining to exercise an opt-out clause in his five-year, $55-million contract, noting he liked living in L.A., but boom times signaled by the early resolution of labor negotiations changed the landscape enough for the Scott Boras client to reconsider. Ned Colletti`s hurt feelings aside, that should have generated sighs of relief; Drew`s propensity for injury would have inevitably bitten the Dodgers. As if to underscore the point, the five-year, $70-million deal Boras hammered out with the Red Sox required restructuring after Drew failed his physical because of a bum shoulder.

2006

Despite an 0-for-25 start, Drew was easily on pace to justify both his salary and his status as the lineup`s centerpiece before getting hurt. But as DePodesta`s critics were quick to note, Drew came with a manufacturer`s warning about his fragility. His 2004 featured a career-high 145 games, 28 above his average over the previous five years. Still, the latest injury came on a hit-by-pitch; Cal Ripken would have gone on the DL with a broken wrist, too. Bashing DePo is a bit more justified regarding the contractual provision allowing Drew to either leave after 2006, or stay and soak up another $33 million of Dodger green while playing in less-than-mint condition. When healthy, he`s one of the top hitters in baseball, but whether he can keep it together for 140-plus games in any one season remains the issue.

2005

Health and performance finally intersected for the erstwhile wunderkind. Even so, because of his chronic, degenerative knee condition, he's no less of a risk for the future. There's a chance this past season was his final full one. With 116 unintentional walks, 67 extra-base hits and the fourth-best OBP in either league, Drew exceeded expectations, but he's a high-risk proposition for the rest of his career. Signed a five-year, $55 million deal with the Dodgers, who are poised to move him back to center. It's somewhat counterintuitive, but that may be the best thing for his knee; it's the quick stopping and starting that hurts him the most, and there'll be less of that in center.

2003

This year’s breakdown? Tendonitis in both knees. He’s already having significant joint trouble before 30? Is he going to break out, or did he already do it in 2001? It looks like PECOTA doesn’t care for his odds, and at this point, I can’t say I disagree. Drew’s a very useful player, but let’s not bring up Fred Lynn. Fred Lynn was great first and hurt early. Drew has only been very good and pretty much hurt all along. If this winter’s relatively new microsurgery procedure rejuvenates the dead tendon in his left knee, chalk it up to another modern medical miracle. Hope for it, because Cardinals fans deserve to see Drew play a full season, and it’s pretty certain that he’d enjoy himself.

2002

Lower back sprain, bruised chest, wrenched ankle, strep throat, broken hand. No, it's not Les Nessman's winter itinerary, it's a brief overview of J.D.'s 2001 Medical Mystery Tour. When Drew was in the lineup, he was in a very select group of performers in a cluster behind Barry Bonds, and every bit as good as advertised. Hopefully, he won't take the Fred Lynn career path into several immovable objects. If he can find his way to 650 plate appearances, he'll be a good bet for the NL MVP Award.

2001

He'll completely obliterate that forecast if LaRussa lets him. J.D. Drew is probably eight years away from being old enough for Tony LaRussa to take him seriously, something TLR made more than clear during the 2000 season. The idea that Shawon Dunston or Craig Paquette ever played while Drew was still breathing boggles the mind. Drew can play any outfield spot well, which makes him a valuable guy to have when your other outfielders are notoriously injury-prone. He's still not the most loved guy in Philadelphia, but can you imagine a 3-4-5-6 of him, Pat Burrell, Bobby Abreu, and Scott Rolen?

2000

Though Drew struggled relative to the expectations of instant greatness (promoted by us, among others), once he was healthy he showed power, patience, a great arm and good speed. Because of his limited pro experience, he made a lot of mental mistakes, especially throwing to the wrong base. LaRussa spent the last few months of the season harping on Drew's shortcomings and threatening that he'll have to improve or play in Memphis. For whose benefit does an established manager say that stuff in public? Scott Boras’s? To show everyone that Tony LaRussa's famed communication skills are as dead as Elvis? Drew is going to draw fire just for being Drew, so the Cardinals need to end this sort of grandstanding, pronto. It doesn't pay to run down an extremely talented young player just because the manager is cranky that the kid wasn't Instant Cup-o-Mantle.

1999

Is that all? Call me greedy, but I wanted more from his projection. His few weeks in the Texas League were enough to get him named its #3 prospect. I’m sure that’s got a hundred kids wondering how they can get Scott Boras on their side, rather than cave in and take $10,000 to skip college or something. Drew is the complete package: strong arm, good range, and a compact, vicious swing that generates tremendous power. He’s good enough in the field to push Lankford out of center right now, but it looks like he’ll be in right.


Baseball Prospectus Home  |  Terms of Service  |  Privacy Policy  |  Contact Us
Copyright © 1996-2008 Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC.