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May 8, 2008

Lies, Damned Lies

PECOTA Takes on Third Base Prospects

by Nate Silver

Excellent Prospects

Player (Age)                      Upside
Evan Longoria, Rays (22)          339.1
Andy LaRoche, Dodgers (24)        178.0

Evan Longoria, meet Ryan Zimmerman. Ryan Zimmerman, meet Evan Longoria. Rarely has there been such a natural-seeming comparison between two young players. Each player can be counted on to deliver a batting average in the .260s or .270s, 20-25 home runs, a solid walk rate, and outstanding defense. Indeed, if you took Longoria’s .230/.341/.419 major league batting line so far in 2008 and appended 30 points of batting average to it (not quite a gimme, since Longoria’s strikeout rate has been high), you’d wind up at .260/.371/.449, which is something straight out of the Ryan Zimmerman playbook.

Nevertheless, that performance might register to you as pretty ho-hum for a guy who’s PECOTA’s #1 prospect, but here’s the thing to remember: this is what Longoria is capable of delivering at age 22, and it already qualifies as a better-than-MLB-average performance (Longoria’s EqA so far this year is .280). Players who are above-average at age 22 are capable of doing almost anything once they hit 26 or 27. One such point of departure for Longoria is Cal Ripken; like Ripken, Longoria could probably play shortstop if he needed to, and maybe even play it pretty well.

Andy LaRoche has had a bad run of luck. It’s one thing to have to compete with Nomar Garciaparra for a job. As stubborn as the Dodgers’ front office brass can be about their young talent, Joe Torre has the gravitas to override the front office, and had he not been injured in the spring he’d probably have won the job by now. But Blake DeWitt is another issue. If you decide to bench the 22-year-old kid who’s hitting .317, that’s going to leave the kid wondering whether he’s going to get a fair shake in your organization and may poison his development. So LaRoche is going to have to bide his time a little while longer, but make no mistake--he’s the stronger prospect than DeWitt. DeWitt’s 90^th percentile batting line gives him a .273 EqA, roughly equal in value to LaRoche’s 25^th percentile batting line (.270 EqA).

Good Prospects

Ian Stewart, Rockies (23)          95.2
Neil Walker, Pirates (22)          92.0
Scott Moore, Orioles (24)          90.6
Joe Dillon, Brewers (32)           70.4
Angel Villalona, Giants (17)       60.1
Andy Marte, Indians (24)           51.8

Any time you’ve got a player who is 32 listed next to one who is 17, you’ve got a pretty fun list, but let's take it from the top. Ian Stewart might struggle to ever make the All-Star team, partly because he’s got Zimmerman and David Wright in his league and partly because PECOTA regards him as more of a safe, Joe Crede kind of player than some kind of emerging superstar. Still, he’s proven just about everything he’s needed to at the Triple-A level, and he will provide an instant defensive upgrade for the Rockies the minute he takes over at third base. The Rockies will never do it, as they seem content to bask in the glow of their franchise’s proudest season, but they need to consider trading Todd Helton and allowing Garrett Atkins to migrate to first base.