April 3, 2008
Lies, Damned Lies
Grab Bag and Final Projected Standings
Spring has a way of creeping up on you in the Midwest, and it crept up on me this year without my ever getting an article out on the PECOTA projected standings. So, rather than try and pretend that that I didn't see what happened over the first couple days of the season-I will point out that my three favorite teams (the Tigers, White Sox, and Cubs) are a collective 0-6-I'm instead going to focus things at the player level, and give you a list of 11 guys that I expect to outperform their PECOTA forecasts this year. Tomorrow, we'll do the equally fun part of this list: those guys that I expect to underachieve PECOTA.
C Ivan Rodriguez, Tigers: From their four-year deal with Rodriguez that expired this winter, the Tigers got one MVP-caliber season (2004), one year in which Rodriguez played well and helped them to reach the World Series (2006), and two years that were just okay (2005, 2007). That's not a bad return on a deal that was criticized at the time. Rodriguez was brought back this year, perhaps more because of the lack of viable alternatives than anything else, and PECOTA thinks he's pretty much done, projecting a .267/.295/.390 batting line and just 287 at-bats. I'd expect Rodriguez to provide a more dignified performance than PECOTA suggests. Truly great players-and Rodriguez is a first-ballot Hall of Famer-are great in part because of their ability to perform competently at the tail ends of their careers, reaching the big leagues early, and then still contributing to their clubs into their late 30s. That grand arc of a player's career is something that PECOTA can miss because of its focus on a player's most recent performance.
1B James Loney, Dodgers: Loney's projection isn't bad; it's a hell of a lot better than what the Dodgers might have expected to get out of Nomar Garciaparra at first base. But PECOTA is still hedging its bets a bit because of Loney's mediocre .239 EqA in 2005 in Jacksonville, a season that we can probably excuse on account of Loney's having been rushed. It's also skeptical of some of the high batting averages that Loney has posted in the minors, but his .331 BA over 375 plate appearances in the majors last year ought at least to suggest that he wasn't merely taking advantage of shoddy minor league defenses. I expect Loney to append about 15 points of batting average to PECOTA's projection, and produce something resembling his 75th percentile forecast line (.308/.375/.501).
2B Ian Kinsler, Rangers: Kinsler started last season strongly, with a .298/.385/.667 April, and ended it relatively well, with .277/.403/.446 rates in September and October. What happened in the middle wasn't so good, but Kinsler was bothered persistently by a stress fracture in his foot over the middle part of the year, and that may have altered his hitting mechanics. Whenever you have a performance arc over the course of the season that was strongly correlated with the presence of an injury, and that injury is no longer supposed to be a problem, I think you can fudge upward.
3B Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals: Well, it's certainly a little easier to make this call after his walk-off home run on Opening Night. However, so many of the peripheral indicators that I like work well for Zimmerman-he thrived in the big leagues early, he's a big, strong kid, his overall game is very well balanced, and he's always been healthy. I just don't see anything holding him back on his ascent toward true superstardom.
SS Julio Lugo, Red Sox: Lugo hit .224/.286/.315 when batting atop the order last year, but then improved to .305/.353/.483 after being demoted to the nine-hole in the latter part of the season. Now, hitting leadoff was nothing new for Lugo; the leadoff spot has accounted for the plurality of his at-bats over the course of his career. But the combination of Lugo's trying to live up to the pressure of a big new contract in a big new city and having to do it in the leadoff role when you've got Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz waiting to hit behind you... it's perhaps understandable that Lugo had some terrible slumps in the first half, and it's clear he may have been pressing. I'm not expecting an All-Star performance, nor am I expecting the Red Sox to feel particularly great about the contract they gave him, but I like his chances to beat PECOTA.
OF Pat Burrell, Phillies: There's not a left fielder on the board whom I feel wholly comfortable with. Jason Bay is my gut-feel pick, but that may be a stubborn refusal to look past his big numbers in '05 and '06 peak, and acknowledge that the general rule for guys who blossom a little late is that they tend to decline a little early; Bay sort of seems headed down the Bobby Higginson career path. So I'm going to go with the guy who has the most on the line this year, and there's nobody who has more on the line than Burrell, who is playing for a big new contract, and could either be someone's $100 million baby, or the sort of guy where a lot of teams look at the strikeouts, the poor defense, and the off-field static, and decide to take a pass.
OF Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners: The gimmie pick on this list, this year and every year. PECOTA just can't find enough good comparables for Ichiro, who in many ways bears the most similarity to guys who played before World War II, and continues to want to characterize him as a Lance Johnson-style banjo hitter. I also think that Suzuki's work ethic and disposition toward conditioning is enough to take a couple of years off his biological age. Now, I do think that when the end comes for Ichiro, it could come rather quickly, in part because he's going to lose a ton of points off his batting average once he loses his foot speed. It might well come before the end of his new contract in Seattle, but I don't expect it to come this year.
OF Nick Swisher, White Sox: Swisher is hitting out of the leadoff spot this year, another piece of evidence that the White Sox are repressed statheads at heart. The thing about hitting leadoff is that it's actually the hardest place in the lineup to draw walks. But the reason for that is because pitchers don't want to put the leadoff hitter on, so they'll be more inclined to challenge him, and that's something that could pay big dividends for Swisher, who can do nasty things to baseballs in the middle of the strike zone. PECOTA already likes Swisher pretty well, but I see 40-homer potential in the friendly confines of U.S. Cellular Field.
LHP Oliver Perez, Mets: This strikes me as another relatively easy pick, as PECOTA has him as a below-average pitcher this year absent league and park context (4.67 EqERA, versus a league average of 4.50). PECOTA is hedging a lot because Perez's performance was so poor in 2005 and 2006; his PERAs were in the sixes and sevens over that period. It's generally a fool's errand to try and outsmart PECOTA on these things, as it's generally very good at figuring out how to weight different seasons in making its forecast. But with Perez, I see a pitcher who has the stuff to match the improvement in performance; this is the classic case of whole new worlds opening up for a pitcher when he shaves a walk or two off his BB/9. There is downside here, because Perez had stretches last year where he reverted to his old, wild self, especially in the second half of the season. But there is also more upside than PECOTA is acknowledging.
RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka, Red Sox: Matsuzaka was so hyped last year that people forgot that he was a rookie, still getting used to his new routine in the US, and perhaps especially the differing usage patterns over on this side of the pond. His sort of game-theoretical approach to pitching-he mixes up his pitch and location choice on different counts in ways that most US-born pitchers would never dream of-suggests someone who might benefit more from further familiarizing himself with the AL's hitters more than the other way around.
Reliever Joakim Soria, Royals: It's not like PECOTA is down on Soria, already forecasting a 3.16 ERA and 35 saves. But what Soria accomplished last year was one of the most overlooked stories of the season: a pitcher who had all of 17 innings outside of the Mexican League, none of them above A-ball, becomes one of the best relievers in his league after getting picked via the Rule 5 draft? The ability to not just survive but thrive upon making this sort of a leap speaks to a special pitcher.
Bonus #1: The Three Most Underplayed/Underreported Storylines of Baseball 2008.
Bonus #2: The PECOTA projected standings
I include these strictly for propriety's sake. They are taken unaltered from our depth charts page, but our depth charts are dynamic, and I want something static on the record. Although each team has now played a couple of games, these projections have not changed since March 28; they will change with our next depth chart update, which should be out within 24 hours.
AL East W L RS RA Yankees 97 65 881 724 Red Sox 91 71 838 745 Rays 88 74 786 718 Blue Jays 78 84 762 775 Orioles 66 96 750 882 AL Central W L RS RA Indians 91 71 834 744 Tigers 91 71 849 757 White Sox 77 85 783 815 Twins 74 88 712 780 Royals 73 89 742 826 AL West W L RS RA Angels 85 77 806 777 Athletics 80 82 731 751 Mariners 75 87 687 748 Rangers 73 89 780 867 NL EAST W L RS RA Mets 93 69 797 682 Braves 86 76 803 757 Phillies 86 76 839 792 Nationals 73 89 765 842 Marlins 71 91 761 845 NL Central W L RS RA Cubs 91 71 848 757 Brewers 88 74 832 767 Reds 80 82 773 775 Cardinals 75 87 712 764 Astros 72 90 738 820 Pirates 72 90 722 803 NL West W L RS RA D'backs 87 75 827 774 Dodgers 87 75 782 731 Rockies 82 80 880 871 Padres 78 84 689 713 Giants 68 94 635 744