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May 17, 2007

Lies, Damned Lies

Moving the Marlins

by Nate Silver

If you build it, will they come? Cities that are attempting to procure a major league baseball team invariably find some way to spin the numbers in the most favorable light possible. I found a 1989 New York Times article in which Buffalo Bills owner Frank Rich, then trying to land a baseball expansion team in his city, claimed that Buffalo was the eighth-largest TV market in the country "when you include Rochester, Syracuse and the Niagara Peninsula." Backers of the San Antonio Marlins can cite the large population of the city proper, ignoring that its media market is decidedly minor league.

The market size model that I developed in my last series of columns can be used as a reality check against these claims; we can plant a team anywhere in the United States or Canada and estimate its potential attendance and media markets. Indeed, some of the markets that might seem favorable to baseball at first glance don’t hold up well under scrutiny, while others that might seem like afterthoughts do surprisingly well.

Below, I have listed thirteen markets that could potentially host a major league franchise, in inverse order of their net impact on leaguewide television and attendance markets. These are not necessarily the thirteen most optimal markets for baseball, but they’re markets that have either indicated an interest in acquiring an MLB club, or have demographic credentials of some form or another. We’ll handle everything from the standpoint of potential relocation targets for the Florida Marlins, with the caveat that we are concerned about the welfare of the entire league, rather than just the Marlins themselves. As you will see, there are certain destinations that might benefit the Marlins, but would not be ideal for the sport as a whole.