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March 27, 2007

Lies, Damned Lies

PECOTA Projected Standings, AL and NL Central

by Nate Silver

This miniseries breaks down into three parts, canvassing the country from East to West. For each of the thirty clubs, I’m going to identify one player for whom I think the PECOTA forecast looks low (“Take the Over”) based on statistical, injury, or scouting information that isn’t picked up by the system, or where that doesn’t work, just based on general gut-feel. We’ll do the same thing for a projection that looks too optimistic (“Take the Under”). Finally, I’ll present an adjusted overall W-L forecast based on these sorts of factors, as well as ‘meta’ variables like the strength of a team’s management, its depth, and its disposition toward or against making trades (“The Verdict”). One exception to this rule: I’m also going to point out one PECOTA projection that might be out of line with the expectations of other forecasters, but where I think the system is getting it right (“Sticking to My Guns”).

As I wrote last time out when I covered the AL and NL East, I’m going to bet against my own forecasting system.

                     W    L     RS    RA    AVG    OBP   SLG
Cleveland Indians   90   72    858   763   .270   .347  .455
Minnesota Twins     90   72    835   741   .285   .349  .428
Detroit Tigers      85   77    789   744   .275   .335  .442
Chicago White Sox   72   90    773   866   .268   .331  .440
Kansas City Royals  67   95    770   913   .272   .336  .430