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March 1, 2007

Lies, Damned Lies

PECOTA Takes on Shortstop Prospects

by Nate Silver

We’ve got some 'splaining to do. PECOTA loves shortstop prospects. It’s just that it doesn’t love quite the same shortstop prospects as everyone else.

Excellent Prospects

1. Alexi Casilla, Twins (22)       171.8
2. Brent Lillibridge, Braves (23)  149.1
3. Sean Rodriguez, Angels (22)     129.0
4. Brandon Wood, Angels (22)       122.4
5. Reid Brignac, Devil Rays (21)   120.9
6. Elvis Andrus, Braves (18)       103.5

Let’s start with a thought experiment: what would happen if Brandon Wood’s strikeout rate were cut in half?

He wouldn’t be the best prospect in baseball—Alex Gordon would still hold that distinction. But his Upside rating would zoom up to 203.5, which would put him squarely in the running for #2. We’d have him forecast for a .275 EqA in 2007 instead of .267, and a .289 EqA in 2011 instead of .274. In other words, he’d both start out from a higher baseline, and be projected to grow more; his top comparables would include names like Bob Horner and Paul Konerko and David Wright instead of Jason Stokes and Chad Hermansen and Russell Branyan.

Wood’s major league equivalent strikeout rate worked out to around 200 K’s per 650 plate appearances last season. Now, there are some guys with very high strikeout rates in the Hall of Fame… and then there are guys like Russ Branyan that take things to the next level and who will always have an uphill battle. Until and unless Wood is able to make some adjustments, he's in that latter category. Although he still stands to be a relatively valuable player at shortstop or third base, he’s simply giving away too many plate appearances to reach superstar status.

Where I'm a little bit more optimistic than PECOTA is in the probability that Wood will in fact be able to make these adjustments. Wood has had the apparent good fortune to play in some very friendly hitting environments over his past two seasons, and that won't change next year when he advances to Salt Lake. I think those small ballparks and high altitudes are teaching him some bad habits; the extra-base hits are a little bit too easy to achieve. But I also think he’s talented enough to overcome those bad habits. My guess is that Wood will fail to match his PECOTA projections over his first 500 plate appearances in the majors, but will wind up beating them—perhaps by a lot—by 2009 or 2010.