February 2, 2007

Lies, Damned Lies

PECOTA Takes on Catching Prospects

by Nate Silver

Catching prospects are sort of like pitching prospects. There are a few guys who distinguish themselves, but mostly you’re left with an unwashed mass of players with some residual value by virtue of the fact that there are just 60-70 catchers on major league rosters at any given time.

Actually, I should probably pause to explain what I’m doing. Players are ranked according to their peak-adjusted PECOTA Upside score, and bundled into categories inspired by Kevin’s team-by-team prospect lists. Everything else should be explained at great length in yesterday’s column, so we’ll keep the ‘meta’ discussion to a minimum here.

Excellent Prospects

1. Chris Iannetta, Rockies (24)                156.5
2. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Braves (22)          112.0

PECOTA didn’t like Chris Iannetta much at all last year, seeing him as an “empty walks” player who wouldn’t hit for enough power against tougher competition, causing his OBP to deteriorate as pitchers quit working around him. But he zoomed all the way from Double-A to the majors last season, hitting plenty at every level, and he’s now one of the better prospects in the game. Iannetta’s major faults are that he’s slow and a bit undersized, but these are less worrisome for a catcher than they would be for a player at another position. I’m not quite sure why he doesn’t get more attention; he’s two years older than Troy Tulowitzki, but has significantly out-hit him at every level he’s played at so far, and catchers with good bats are even harder to find than shortstops with good bats. Sometimes players who split their season evenly between two or three levels can get lost in the shuffle. My gut is that PECOTA is a wee bit high on him, but he’s a great guy to have in a fantasy league or a Rookie of the Year pool.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia is an underrated prospect. His raw numbers in Mississippi were flat-out ugly (.230/.353/.380), but Mississippi is one of the toughest hitting environments in the minor leagues; the entire Mississippi Braves team hit just .251/.314/.335 at home. Overall, the drop-off in Saltalamacchia’s EqA was just 13 points, from .276 in 2005 to .263 in 2006. Most of that was driven by his first-half slip in batting average, but he should be able to recover fully given his reasonable plate approach. Salty still has plenty of time for growth, and PECOTA sees him rounding out as a .274/.370/.478 player by the time he’s 26.

Very Good Prospects

3. Miguel Montero, Diamondbacks (23)          73.6
4. Carlos Ruiz, Phillies (28)                 69.7
5. Curtis Thigpen, Blue Jays (24)             67.2
6. Francisco Cervelli, Yankees (21)           63.9
7. J.R. Towles, Astros (23)                   53.0

Notice the huge drop-off in the scores; we’ve gone from two elite prospects to guys with a lot of asterisks pretty quickly. Miguel Montero is a known commodity who has done nothing but hit for the past two years, save for a brief stint at Tennessee in 2005. This is a very common profile for a decent catching prospect--average in just about everything but speed (none) and size (short for a contemporary ballplayer). PECOTA doesn’t see a ton of growth for Montero or necessarily a long career; like the scouts, it generally prefers players who have at least one Grade-A skill to work from. But being average-to-above throughout his arbitration years is going to be valuable.

Carlos Ruiz is the Brooks Conrad of the catching position: an organizational player whose bat has bloomed late. The DTs discount his .307/.389/.505 line in Scranton heavily since he was repeating the level, but he still reads as a guy with a league-average bat and a good glove who just needs the opportunity. The Phillies have a habit of burying their minor leaguers, and while Ruiz has no star potential, he’s probably better than Rod Barajas, whom the Phillies signed this winter. Barajas aside, Ruiz probably has a better chance at a major league career than someone like Conrad, since it’s sort of socially acceptable for catchers to debut late.

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