The Ledger Domain: Wal... (06/05)
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June 5, 2006 Doctoring The NumbersThe Draft, Part 12If there’s one indisputable fact about our draft study, it’s that the dynamics of the draft change over time; the calculus of the draft from 1992 to 1999 is much, much different than it was from 1984 to 1991. Well, there’s no reason to think that change suddenly ground to a halt in 1999, and the data from a decade ago may hold little bearing on the decisions that will be made next Tuesday. On the other hand, it’s too early to analyze more recent drafts, and some data is better than none. The question is, can we extrapolate what the trends of the draft might have been based on how teams’ drafting tendencies have changed? With an assist from John Erhardt, here’s a chart comparing the number of (signed) high school players vs. college players selected in the first 100 picks:
 The chart is a little too spiky for my tastes--let’s look at a moving three-year average to smooth out some of the random variation from year to year:
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