Rational Exuberance

The Over-30 Crowd

by Jonah Keri

Quiz time!

Question 1: This player scores a higher VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) than Ichiro Suzuki, Scott Rolen, Vladimir Guerrero, Gary Sheffield or Manny Ramirez, but topped 500 at-bats in a season just once before age 30.

Question 2: This player leads the American League in EqA (Equivalent Average) this season despite never reaching 500 at-bats in a season before age 30.

All right, the links give it away. Mark Loretta and Melvin Mora have put up star-caliber seasons that have outstripped all but the Bonds/Pujols class of '04. They've done so with little notice from mainstream media sources or fans, whether casual or hard-core.

What makes the two players' breakout seasons all the more remarkable is their ages. Loretta's 2003 season, in which he turned 32 and hit .326/.384/.455 outstripped anything he'd ever done before; his '04 performance--.343/.404/.512 in the toughest hitters' park in baseball--has blown '03 away. Mora didn't even reach the majors until age 27, then toiled as a utility man for the first few years of his career. He's followed a brilliant, but injury-marred .317/.418/.503 '03 campaign at age 31 with a performance worthy of MVP votes this year--.343/.425/.569.

Mora's weighted-mean PECOTA projection heading into the 2003 season: .242/.325/.380. Loretta's: .251/.316/.316. With so little expected from either player, the question is, "where did these two breakouts come from?" Did Loretta and Mora show signs of greatness that would have led us to see this coming? Are sudden over-30 breakouts of this scope common? Can other over-30 breakouts teach us anything about what a player with that kind of career arc looks like?

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