Platoons
Target: Anthony Rizzo 1B ($4600, +111 OPS and +.054 ISO against RHP) versus RHP Bartolo Colon ($7000, +.035 ISO and +79 OPS against LHB)
Rizzo's platoon split is much less of a factor these days since he hits everybody, regardless of handedness, but his extra power surge with the platoon advantage meshes with Colon's vulnerability to left-handed batters (Colon's OPS split is +95 against LHB this season). Rizzo has been slapping singles against left-handers to the tune of a .339 batting average in 2015, but all of his power has come against right-handed pitchers, including 14 of his 15 homeruns and 34 of his 40 extra-base hits in total. He has also stolen nine bags off of righties. Rizzo's bat has been a bit cool lately, but with Colon on the skids today's matchup is shaping up to be a slump buster.
Avoid: Adrian Gonzalez 1B ($4400, -137 OPS and -.068 ISO against LHP) and Joc Pederson OF ($4600, -180 OPS and -.103 ISO) versus LHP Robbie Ray
The left-handed Dodger sluggers take advantage when the platoon swings in their favor, but the onus falls on right-handed bats such as Yasiel Puig and Howie Kendrick when a southpaw takes the mound for the opposition. Ray has actually posted a reverse platoon split thus far in his brief career, but the sample needs more time to accumulate data before trusting that the split is sustainable.
Lucas Duda OF ($3700, -146 OPS and -.089 ISO against LHP) versus LHP Jon Lester ($10300, -12 OPS against LHB's)
Duda is one of the more extreme examples of platoon splits among everyday players and that split is even more exaggerated this season at (-289 OPS), tying his value to the day's opposing pitcher moreso than his price tag. He's an easy add at that $3700 price when facing a right-handed pitcher, but Duda fares poorly when facing same-side pitchers and could struggle to earn enough points to justify his salary. Lester has a nearly non-existent split, but Duda's wild performance swing does enough work to open volatility for the both of them.
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Matchups
Target: David Ortiz 1B ($4400) vs. LHP Mark Buehrle
Big Papi typically carries an “Avoid” sign when facing a southpaw, but he has a long history of success against Buehrle. With 88 career plate appearances head-to-head, Buehrle has faced Ortiz more times than all but three hitters in his career, and in those meetings Papi has enjoyed the upper hand. The tale of the tape reads a .313/.352/.578 slash and 14 extra-base hits, and the power has withstood the test of time, with Ortiz taking Buehrle deep in once last season om six plate appearances.
Steals
Target: Rajai Davis OF ($3700, 14-of-17 SB) and Anthony Gose OF ($3600, 11-of-17 SB) facing A.J. Burnett ($9800, opponents 16-of-24 SB).
Burnett has a stacked resume to backup his struggles against baserunners, and he has given up the third-most steals this season, and the 24 attempts that have been made against him tie for the second-highest total in the majors. The biggest risk for Rajai is playing time, as his presence in the starting lineup has been spotty against right-handed starters and he is averaging just a dozen games started per month this season. Davis hasn't stolen a bag since June 12, but Anthony Gose has picked up the slack with four steals within the same timeframe.
Avoid: Cameron Maybin, OF ($4000, 13-of-17 SB this season) and Jace Peterson, 2B ($3400, 8-of-16 SB) facing Doug Fister ($6600, opponents 0-of-1 SB)
Fister has been a ballbuster on base thieves for years, and the opposition has simply given up in trying to conquer the basepaths, with just two steal attempts combined from 2014 to '15 (both of them caught). The loss of Freddie Freeman essentially sucked the Atlanta lineup dry of power, an element which might put a greater onus on the team's ability to steal a bag and put a runner in scoring position, but such a strategy is ill-advised against tonight's opponent.
Recency
Target: Cesar Hernandez, 2B/SS ($2900), facing RHP Kyle Lohse
Hernandez has been a force near the top of the order for the Phillies, bringing a whirlwind of production over the last eight games, during which he is hitting .469 (15-for-32) with six stolen bases. The half-dozen swipes have all occurred in his last four contests and tonight the switch-hitter gets to square off against Kyle Lohse, owner of a 6.28 ERA as part of a career-worst campaign.
Avoid: Miguel Montero, C ($2700), facing Bartolo Colon
Montero has reaped extra benefit this season due to his frequent appearance in the middle of the Cubs' batting order, including 42 of his 47 starts this season in the number four and five spots in the order. He has responded with a career-high walk rate of 13.7 percent this season and the best homer frequency of his career at one dinger for every 20.4 at bats. He has been in a funk at the plate recently, going seven for his last 37 with zero extra-base hits since June 13th, and his recent woes are reflected by his cheapest price of the year. The recent trends say to avoid Montero's services today, but at just $2700 he could present too good of an opportunity to pass up.
Price
Target: Jhonny Peralta SS ($3800), facing LHP Jose Quintana
Peralta has a steady platoon advantage (+48 OPS and +.044 ISO versus LHP) and few signs of slump in the recent past, making him a very strong play today against Quintana even if the price were $500 higher. At $3800 in the offensive sinkhole of shortstop, though, rostering Peralta is a no-brainer.
Avoid: Mitch Moreland 1B ($4200), facing LHP Wei-Yin Chen
Moreland is enjoying a breakout season at age 29, hitting his usual number of homers (14) but doing so in half the usual at bats (213) and with the lowest walk rate of his career (6.0 percent). If playing the game with retroactive stats then Moreland's performance might justify the cost, but he's a left-handed stick with a 653 career OPS (and .357 slugging percentage) against southpaws. Hitting four homers in two days (and six jacks in hid last six games) has a way of jacking up the price point, though, allowing short-term memory to cloud better judgment.
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Resources used for this article:
Baseball Prospectus Stats and Player Cards
Draft Kings player prices
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