CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (07/30)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Play... (07/23)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Post... (08/06)
Next Article >>
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (07/30)

July 30, 2014

Dynasty Dynamics

Who We're Selling at the Deadline

by Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein


Last week we brought you six players we’re buying in a dynasty format, so naturally, we thought it prudent to bring you another six-pack of players, this time focusing on who we’re selling, using the same long-term perspective.

Ben: Brock Holt, Everything, BOS
Brock Holt is a pretty decent baseball player. He can play both corner infield spots, both corner outfield spots and second base, and he can fake it in center or at short for a few games. He’s fast enough to be an occasional threat on the bases, he has a patient approach at the plate and he has the bat speed necessary to barrel up good velocity. There are lots of nice things you can say about Brock Holt (o/), and I think he’ll be a unique, valuable major leaguer for a long time.

But if you’re looking for Holt to sustain the success he’s had through the first three-fifths of the season, you’re going to be disappointed. Holt’s rocking a .373 BABIP even after a recent slump has seen his season average fall from .327 on July 13 to .304 today. Holt might not be due for quite as much regression as you think, as his well above league-average line-drive rate of 25.3 percent portends higher BABIPs. But regression is coming nonetheless, and as Brooks Baseball’s player card for Holt notes, he has a tendency to chase fastballs and offspeed pitches outside the strike zone.

As mentioned above, I think Holt will hit enough to remain a major leaguer in the long run—he’s almost always hit well in the minors and the physical tools (sans power) are there. But he’s more likely to emerge as an oft-played super-utility guy than a true starter, and he’s certainly not going to hit leadoff for most of his career. If someone wants to overpay for Holt, you should most certainly let them.

Also, if you notice that my portion of Dynasty Dynamics missing next week, it’s because Red Sox Twitter found this analysis and has drawn-and-quartered me in my Boston apartment.

Craig: Jacob deGrom, SP, NYM
I’ve already given the side-eye to Dallas Keuchel, Nathan Eovaldi, and Rick Porcello in Fantasy Freestyles, but while there were strong statistical/pitch usage cases, or anomalies in each of those situations, there really isn’t one against deGrom. He’s got a beautiful strikeout rate, paired with a solid walk rate. His ground ball percentage isn’t out of line, and while his HR:FB is a little low, a small bump there wouldn’t make him significantly less valuable. Even his BABIP is at a normal figure, so there’s not balls in play luck messing with the stats.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Related Content:  Trades,  Fantasy,  Trade Deadline,  Dynasty Leagues

6 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article What You Need to Know:... (07/30)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Play... (07/23)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Post... (08/06)
Next Article >>
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit Lis... (07/30)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Live That Fantasy
Premium Article Pitching Backward: Brandon McCarthy and the ...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Bringing the Band Back...
Premium Article Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: NL W...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Catchin' Relief
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Martin in Miami, Nate ...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Padres Wish Upton a St...

MORE FROM JULY 30, 2014
The Lineup Card: Nine Last-Minute Trades
Premium Article Scouting the Draft: The Cape League All-Star...
Eyewitness Accounts: July 30, 2014
BBQ State of Mind
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Tuesday, July ...
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, July 30
Premium Article What You Need to Know: July 30, 2014

MORE BY BEN CARSLEY
2014-07-31 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Yankees Get a Proper I...
2014-07-31 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: A's hire A's
2014-07-31 - TINO (There Is No Offseason): Ep: 24: Enya I...
2014-07-30 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Who We're Selling at the D...
2014-07-23 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Players We're Buying at th...
2014-07-22 - TINO (There Is No Offseason): Ep. 23: Prosec...
2014-07-18 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Buy or Sell: Chris Davis
More...

MORE DYNASTY DYNAMICS
2014-08-20 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: More Top 50 Talk
2014-08-13 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Our Top 50 Dynasty League ...
2014-08-06 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Post-Deadline Prospect Val...
2014-07-30 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Who We're Selling at the D...
2014-07-23 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Players We're Buying at th...
2014-07-16 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Top 50 Jumpers
2014-07-09 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Progress Report: Prospect ...
More...