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July 30, 2014

Dynasty Dynamics

Who We're Selling at the Deadline

by Ben Carsley and Craig Goldstein


Last week we brought you six players we’re buying in a dynasty format, so naturally, we thought it prudent to bring you another six-pack of players, this time focusing on who we’re selling, using the same long-term perspective.

Ben: Brock Holt, Everything, BOS
Brock Holt is a pretty decent baseball player. He can play both corner infield spots, both corner outfield spots and second base, and he can fake it in center or at short for a few games. He’s fast enough to be an occasional threat on the bases, he has a patient approach at the plate and he has the bat speed necessary to barrel up good velocity. There are lots of nice things you can say about Brock Holt (o/), and I think he’ll be a unique, valuable major leaguer for a long time.

But if you’re looking for Holt to sustain the success he’s had through the first three-fifths of the season, you’re going to be disappointed. Holt’s rocking a .373 BABIP even after a recent slump has seen his season average fall from .327 on July 13 to .304 today. Holt might not be due for quite as much regression as you think, as his well above league-average line-drive rate of 25.3 percent portends higher BABIPs. But regression is coming nonetheless, and as Brooks Baseball’s player card for Holt notes, he has a tendency to chase fastballs and offspeed pitches outside the strike zone.

As mentioned above, I think Holt will hit enough to remain a major leaguer in the long run—he’s almost always hit well in the minors and the physical tools (sans power) are there. But he’s more likely to emerge as an oft-played super-utility guy than a true starter, and he’s certainly not going to hit leadoff for most of his career. If someone wants to overpay for Holt, you should most certainly let them.

Also, if you notice that my portion of Dynasty Dynamics missing next week, it’s because Red Sox Twitter found this analysis and has drawn-and-quartered me in my Boston apartment.

Craig: Jacob deGrom, SP, NYM
I’ve already given the side-eye to Dallas Keuchel, Nathan Eovaldi, and Rick Porcello in Fantasy Freestyles, but while there were strong statistical/pitch usage cases, or anomalies in each of those situations, there really isn’t one against deGrom. He’s got a beautiful strikeout rate, paired with a solid walk rate. His ground ball percentage isn’t out of line, and while his HR:FB is a little low, a small bump there wouldn’t make him significantly less valuable. Even his BABIP is at a normal figure, so there’s not balls in play luck messing with the stats.

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Related Content:  Trades,  Fantasy,  Trade Deadline,  Dynasty Leagues

6 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

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moehk21

I enjoy your work Craig, but I disagree with your assessment of Jose Altuve. Sure, there's gonna be some BABIP regression, but projecting his 2012 season as his true line seems light to me. He's cut his K rate significantly this season (from 12.6% to 8.3%) and from an eye test perspective he's just taking much better at bats. I think it's wrong to attribute most of his improvement to BABIP variance, and more of that improvement seems due to a just-turned 24-year-old getting more reps and maturing into his game.

I guess we'll see next season and the rest of the way, but it wouldn't surprise me if something like .330-.340 is his true BABIP and he's a .300-.315 guy for his career-- not a .290 guy.

Jul 30, 2014 05:29 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

His career BABIP is .329, which I referenced by saying .367 was 38 points higher than. It was .321 in 2012 when he hit .290, so I don't think it's unreasonable for me to rely on that 2012 production, especially when he's shown to be worse than that in his half-season in 2011 and his full season in 2013.

And yes, his K rate is down significantly, but one would wonder how sustainable that is. It's possible that it *is* sustainable and that quality at-bats are leading to harder hit balls which leads to a higher BABIP, but his LD% is the same as last year, and his GB% is down, which you'd think would result in a lower BABIP, so I think there's some regression there.

Again, this is saying he's playing above his head, if only slightly, and that with most of his value banked for the season, it's possible to generate huge value in trade for owners who are desperate for speed. I don't think it's crazy for him to be a .300 hitter, but I'm not counting on it either.

Jul 30, 2014 07:07 AM
 
BarryR

So you're saying his downside is .290 with 35 SB, while his upside is, let's say, .310 with 55+ SB (although he will exceed the BA this year). No one is untradeable, but unless I was being offered someone nobody would offer (Stanton, Cabrera, McCutcheon, Trout), I would say no. The three hardest things to find are a big time HR hitter, an elite base stealer, and someone likely to hit in the vicinity of .300. He does two of those things, making him either very valuable (downside) or monstrously valuable (this year). There are 3 players in MLB this season who are on pace to hit .290 and steal 35 bases (Altuve,Dee Gordon, Ben Revere). If you are in an only league, Altuve is not only the lone AL player on pace to do that (and he is doing a lot more than that),there are only two AL players currently hitting .280 who are on pace for 25 steals - Brett Gardner and Alexei Ramirez, with three more, Ellsbury, Alcides Escobar, and Jose Reyes, just off that pace. I think you're seriously underestimating his value.

Jul 30, 2014 13:38 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Craig Goldstein
BP staff

No, I'm not saying his downside is .290 with 35 sb. I'm saying I think that's his likely role. His downside is worse than that, I just don't think that's particularly likely (nor do I think a season like 2014 is particularly likely. I acknowledged his immense value, multiple times, which is why I think you could get a king's ransom for him at the deadline. So much of that value is tied to one category (two this year), that I might look to diversify the risk over multiple players, potentially multiple impact players that someone might be willing to offer to lock down stolen bases for the remainder of this year.

Again, this isn't a knock on Altuve, so much as it is taking one player and turning him into surplus value that is comprised of more than two categories. It won't make sense for every team in every situation, and it's not implying that Altuve doesn't have plenty of value going forward.

Jul 30, 2014 13:45 PM
 
Nacho999

I feel roughly the same way...I don't have any fancy stat line to bolster my case, but Altuve has really shown me something this year...Consistent hard contact and fearless baserunning...His owner in our league protected him at $28 and he's going to bank some profit with Altuve stealing upwards of 70 bases by the end of the season...My whole team, with Gardner, Martin and Springer has something like 66 with ten weeks to play...I don't generally pay any player $30 before Draft Day (keeper league), but I'd love to get my hands on Altuve...I think his growth spurt is the real deal...Just my useless unsubstantiated two cents...

Jul 30, 2014 06:39 AM
rating: 0
 
stephenbawesome

I've got people offering quite a lot for Julio Teheran in my deep dynasty league. Would you consider moving him for the right package? Such as both Archie Bradley and Julio Urias.

Jul 30, 2014 07:20 AM
rating: 0
 
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