CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pac... (05/27)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Rep... (05/22)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Suc... (05/28)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Suc... (05/28)

May 28, 2014

Fantasy Freestyle

Will Carlos Santana Heat Up?

by Craig Goldstein


The Indians, fresh off a Wild Card Game appearance in 2013, are in last place in the AL Central. While no one player is to blame for the team's struggles, Carlos Santana's early-season woes are eye-catching. Everyone expected Santana, who has transitioned to third base after spending his first four seasons at catcher, to struggle on defense. Yet nobody anticipated his .159/.327/.301 slash line through 220 plate appearances. The question at hand then, for the Indians and for fantasy owners alike, is whether Santana will be a productive player from this point on. The answer, as it so happens, is yes.

The biggest pimple on the oily face that is Santana’s batted-ball data is the lack of line drives. Santana is no stranger to low line drive rates—regularly producing below the league-average—but his 11.7 percent clip in 2014 would represent a new career-low. The line drives he’s missing have mostly turned into ground balls, though his fly ball rate has increased as well. He's maintained a 20-homer pace because his home-run-per-fly-ball rate has remained static even with the increase in fly balls.

The biggest constant in Santana’s season is his impressive amount of walks. His batting average may stink to high heaven but his approach has remained sound, with a walk rate of 19.5 percent, which would represent a career-high. His 43 walks pace the major leagues, leading the likes of Andrew McCutchen and Jose Bautista—far more impressive hitters to date.

So it’s not that he’s lost himself at the plate, or that he’s utterly lacking power (as his HR/FB rate would attest). And while he’s not markedly worse at connecting with pitches inside the strike zone with a Z-Contact percentage of 84.9 versus his career rate of 85.6, he has struggled to drive the ball with any consistency. His home runs are slightly down on a rate basis, but his doubles are down significantly. A look at his slugging rates this year, versus his career rates:

2014

Career

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Related Content:  Carlos Santana,  Fantasy

2 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pac... (05/27)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Rep... (05/22)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Suc... (05/28)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Suc... (05/28)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Premium Article Moonshot: In Search of Pedro Cerrano
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Padres Add Myers
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: What the Rays and Nati...
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Kenta Maeda Will Not Be Appea...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Live That Fantasy
Premium Article Pitching Backward: Brandon McCarthy and the ...
Premium Article Raising Aces: Best and Worst Mechanics: NL W...

MORE FROM MAY 28, 2014
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Wednesday, May 28
This is Not Your Father's Baseball Road Trip...
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Tuesday, May 2...
Premium Article Perfect Game Presents: 2014 MLB Draft Rankin...
Fantasy Article Deep Impact: Week Eight
Fantasy Article Closer to Me: Week Nine
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Success Stories in the En...

MORE BY CRAIG GOLDSTEIN
2014-06-04 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Profiling Alex Reyes
2014-06-03 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Ideal Dynasty-Style Mock D...
2014-05-29 - TINO (There Is No Offseason): Ep. 19: Elbow ...
2014-05-28 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Will Carlos Santana Heat ...
2014-05-27 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: The U25 Top 150, Part Thre...
2014-05-23 - TINO (There Is No Offseason): Ep. 18: That's...
2014-05-22 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Dallas Keuchel: Sell-High...
More...

MORE FANTASY FREESTYLE
2014-06-04 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Profiling Alex Reyes
2014-06-03 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Success Stories in the En...
2014-05-28 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Success Stories in the En...
2014-05-28 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Will Carlos Santana Heat ...
2014-05-22 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Representativeness, Valua...
2014-05-22 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Dallas Keuchel: Sell-High...
2014-05-19 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: My Closer Lost His Job an...
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2014-06-18 - Fantasy Article Dynasty Dynamics: Progress Report: MLB Editi...