CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Premium Article PECOTA Takes on Prospe... (05/08)
<< Previous Column
Overthinking It: Catch... (05/07)
Next Column >>
Overthinking It: Have ... (05/15)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Skewed Left: The Five ... (05/08)

May 8, 2014

Overthinking It

The Masters of the Manufactured Run

by Ben Lindbergh


Like many posts and podcasts before it, this one began with a question from a member of the Effectively Wild Facebook Group:

So Billy Hamilton just scored in the first inning of the Reds/Cubs game without the Reds recording a hit. Walk, stolen base, wild pitch, sac fly. My question is how many times will this happen with Bham in 2014? What is the most times a player has done this in a season?

Mike Zerhusen

Hamilton scored the run Mike is referring to in an April 29 game against the Cubs. It wasn’t an isolated incident. In fact, three of Hamilton’s 13 runs on the season so far have been scored without a hit. On April 21, Hamilton led off the second inning against Francisco Liriano with a walk. He then stole second, advanced to third on a wild pitch, waited out another walk, and scored on a second wild pitch. On April 21, again with Liriano on the mound, Hamilton was hit by a pitch to lead off the game, advanced to third on a groundout back to the pitcher (he had been trying to steal), and scored on a fielder’s choice. Here’s what that looked like.

Okay, so Mike’s isn’t the most consequential question. Still, going home-to-first without a hit has a special appeal. In baseball, scoring runs normally resembles a relay race, requiring contributions from multiple batters. Once a guy gets on, he usually has to stand there and hope that another batter (or batters) right behind him gets a good pitch to hit. DIY runs are rare, and they leave you with the wonderful feeling of having gotten something for nothing. Outside of hitting a homer, doing what Hamilton did is the closest a baseball player can come to going coast-to-coast or completing a 100-yard kick return.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

10 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

pandamans

impressive. i'm curious about the research methodology - this doesn't seem like it'd be the easiest question to answer, and yet this is quite thorough.

May 08, 2014 06:17 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Yes, it was a tough query to construct, but nothing Russell Carleton couldn't handle.

May 08, 2014 06:25 AM
 
BP staff member Russell A. Carleton
BP staff

#GoryMath

May 08, 2014 06:28 AM
 
newsense

I noticed that one of Hamilton's runs was scored without putting a batted ball in play. Call that a "Super Hamilrun". Any chance of getting a count of those?

May 08, 2014 09:50 AM
rating: 5
 
BP staff member Ben Lindbergh
BP staff

Russell says it could be done, but it would take four hours to run. Have pity on the man.

May 08, 2014 10:45 AM
 
therealn0d

It's only a subset of the data he already has, unless he didn't save the results. In R it could just be a dataframe, albeit a large one you don't want lingering in memory, but...
#ExternalHarddrive

May 08, 2014 11:17 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Russell A. Carleton
BP staff

I didn't save the data file, mostly because it was all events from 1948-2013, which is about 10M lines. Yeah...

The problem is that you have to run a LAG function (I use SPSS) a few times on a couple of different variables to make sure you're selecting out the correct cases. It's not terribly complex to program, it just takes a lot of processor time to actually plow through.

May 09, 2014 12:51 PM
 
blizzard093

Here's one - September 11, 1983 - my 2nd big league game - in the midst of Rickey-mania - top of 1st, Rickey walks, steals 2nd, steals 3rd, throw goes into left - "Super Hamilrun" - bottom of 1st, my favourite Blue Jay, Willie Upshaw hits a Grand Slam en route to a 16-6 thumping of the A's - one of my all-time favourite baseball memories

May 08, 2014 16:30 PM
rating: 1
 
jfranco77

I love this. Hamilruns is my new favorite stat.

May 08, 2014 11:55 AM
rating: 1
 
LynchMob

Hamilrun today! http://www.sportsnetwork.com/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=mlb/scores/live/log.aspx?GAMEID=42077

May 15, 2014 15:34 PM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Premium Article PECOTA Takes on Prospe... (05/08)
<< Previous Column
Overthinking It: Catch... (05/07)
Next Column >>
Overthinking It: Have ... (05/15)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Skewed Left: The Five ... (05/08)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Article Fantasy Players to Avoid: Starting Pitchers
Fantasy Infographic: Starting Pitchers
Fantasy Article Dynasty League Positional Rankings: Top 175 ...
Premium Article Rumor Roundup: Diamondbacks Third Baseman is...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Bad Bullpen Teams ...
Prospectus Feature: A.J. Preller's Offseason...
Premium Article Raising Aces: The Eyes of March

MORE FROM MAY 8, 2014
Eyewitness Accounts: Eyewitness Accounts: Ma...
Premium Article Pebble Hunting: The Baseball Sandbox Experim...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Mariners Making Moves
Premium Article Skewed Left: The Five Teams That Don't Have ...
Premium Article PECOTA Takes on Prospects
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Wednesday, May...
Fantasy Article Free Agent Watch: Week Six

MORE BY BEN LINDBERGH
2014-05-13 - BP Unfiltered: Baseball Prospectus at Fox Sp...
2014-05-12 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 4...
2014-05-09 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 4...
2014-05-08 - Premium Article Overthinking It: The Masters of the Manufact...
2014-05-08 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 4...
2014-05-07 - Overthinking It: Catcher Framing: The Season...
2014-05-07 - BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 4...
More...

MORE OVERTHINKING IT
2014-05-23 - Premium Article Overthinking It: How to Prevent Future Princ...
2014-05-19 - Overthinking It: The Way in Which the A's Ar...
2014-05-15 - Overthinking It: Have Tommy John Surgery, Si...
2014-05-08 - Premium Article Overthinking It: The Masters of the Manufact...
2014-05-07 - Overthinking It: Catcher Framing: The Season...
2014-05-02 - Overthinking It: This Week in Bunting to Bea...
2014-04-29 - Premium Article Overthinking It: Three National Leaguers in ...
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2014-05-16 - Premium Article What You Need to Know: Cueto Fries the Friar...