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March 28, 2014

Fantasy Auction Values

Fifth Edition

by Mike Gianella

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Last weekend, Tout Wars held their AL, NL, and mixed-league auctions. This was the final series of expert league auctions this year, and offered yet another set of price points to contemplate before we all head off to our own home league auctions this coming weekend. Listed below are the significant adjustments I made based on the prices in the Tout Wars auctions in the AL and NL-only formats.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Keep in mind that the goal isn’t simply to mirror LABR/Tout prices. We all have our own preferences, and if all I was doing with this exercise were copying expert league prices it wouldn’t be very useful. However, Encarnacion, Kipnis, and Rodney are all examples of players who I was off base on compared to the expert market. Rodney should still be an easy get at $14, and Encarnacion and Kipnis are still likely to go for well over $30 (and past my new recommended bid limit).

Other Adjustments

Yu Darvish $26 (previous bid $29)
I’m not alarmed by Darvish’s neck injury, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he misses 2-3 starts.

Jose Reyes $25 (previous bid $27)
The hamstring isn’t something I’m panicking about, but the new bid expresses an appropriate amount of concern.

Jose Abreu $25 (previous bid $21)
It isn’t just Steve Gardner of USA Today/Sports Weekly who is excited about Abreu. Nearly everyone I talked to during Tout Wars weekend is really enthused by Abreu’s potential. His power potential should not be underestimated.

Joakim Soria $12 (previous bid $9)
Neftali Feliz $2 (previous bid $6)
Maybe Feliz rebounds in the minors and winds up closing this summer, but I’m not going to pay for that. Soria is the man in the ninth for Texas right now, and should be paid accordingly.

Jurickson Profar $7 (previous bid $15)
In keeper leagues, adjust Profar’s price higher. In redraft leagues, don’t overpay for a guy who is likely to miss half of 2014.

Gordon Beckham $4 (previous bid $8)
Marcus Semien $6 (previous bid $1)
Beckham will start the season on the DL, and I’m not convinced that Semien will simply hand the job back when Beckham is ready.

Abraham Almonte $9 (previous bid $3)
Michael Saunders $4 (previous bid $7)
Almonte has won an outfield job outright, and Saunders will be part of a messy right-field platoon/job share in Seattle.

Alberto Callaspo $4 (previous bid $7)
The Athletics are going platoon heavy this year, and Callaspo will be on the wrong side of the second-base platoon with Eric Sogard. Given that Callaspo wasn’t a fantasy stud to begin with, I only want him on a discount.

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Adjustments due to LABR/Tout prices

Other Adjustments

Jake Marisnick $1 (previous bid $6)
Marcell Ozuna $10 (previous bid $6)
Brian Bogusevic $1 (previous bid $5)
These bids are geared toward redraft leagues, as Ozuna has won the job and probably won’t just give it up. In keeper leagues, Marisnick is going to need a few more dollars.

Mike Olt $9 (previous bid $6)
Luis Valbuena $1 (previous bid $4)
Olt has won the Cubs third-base job. Kris Bryant might supplant him at some point, but for now I’d bid on Olt with confidence. Valbuena loses some bid value as a result.

Josh Johnson $7 (previous bid $9)
Robbie Erlin $3 (previous bid $1)
Johnson loses a little value due to his preseason injury. Throw a little extra money Erlin’s way, although Matthew Wisler might be the guy if Johnson’s injury turns out to be serious.

Mike Gianella is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Mike's other articles. You can contact Mike by clicking here

Related Content:  Fantasy,  Auction Values

18 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

timjrohr

No adjustment to Clayton Kershaw?

Mar 28, 2014 06:44 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

I thought about it but everything I'm reading makes this sound extremely precautionary and that he'll only miss a start.

Mar 28, 2014 06:56 AM
 
timjrohr

I dropped him $3 from $45 to $42 (with inflation). He actually went for $42 to someone else, which was fine with me when he later went on the DL.

Mar 30, 2014 19:46 PM
rating: 0
 
TroJim

Jeurys Familia at $7 in NL only? Is this a typo, or do you think he has a shot at closing?

Mar 28, 2014 06:49 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

That's a typo.

Mar 28, 2014 06:53 AM
 
TroJim

Thanks. As someone who is trying to put together my own values for just an NL-only league, I appreciate the monumental task you have undertaken to create these values and keep them up to date. This alone is worth the price of a premium subscription. Thanks.

Mar 28, 2014 07:02 AM
rating: 2
 
membengal

Kole Calhoun?

Mar 28, 2014 08:55 AM
rating: 1
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

Should be in the AL at $13. Fixed.

Mar 28, 2014 09:04 AM
 
grandslam28

Should I keep Corey Dickerson in a 12 team NL only at $13 with a decent amount of inflation?

Mar 28, 2014 13:15 PM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

Depends on who is available, but I'd throw him back.

Mar 28, 2014 13:27 PM
 
dewone

Grossman in AL???

Mar 28, 2014 18:15 PM
rating: 0
 
dewone

nevermind found him at $7

Mar 28, 2014 18:40 PM
rating: 0
 
LoyalRoyal

Like to hear some opinions about the Balt 2B situation. Who has the best 2014 out of Flaherty, Schoop, Lombardozzi and maybe Weeks? Thanks...

Mar 29, 2014 13:39 PM
rating: 0
 
fearlessraccoon

LoyalRoyal, I've had the same question. I have Flaherty at $10 in a keepr league, but he's not worth that with the uncertainty. Here's what I know basedon reading the Baltimore Sun yesterday: Weeks has been sent to the minors. Flaherty will move to 3B while Machado is on DL, Schoop will play 2B. Once Macahdo returns, either Schoop or Flaherty will have the 2B job full-time. Showalter is high on Flaherty, who has very good power and is a good fielder who is improving. I expect Schoop will be sent back to the minors so he can get regular ABs. So Flaherty will *probably* be this year's full-time 2B.

Long-term, Flaherty might not keep the job - Schoop may have a higher ceiling. But Flaherty is very versatile. I intend to bid on him and hope to get him for under $5 in my keeper league. Hope this helps!

Mar 30, 2014 10:14 AM
rating: 0
 
fearlessraccoon

Oh, and Lombardozzi does have some speed, but I don't think he'll ever be a full-time player. Therefore, since Flaherty or Schoop most likely WILL be a full-time 2B, Lombardozzi won't get a lot of ABs. He might be a cheap source of steal at best. Nobody seems to be very high on him.

Mar 30, 2014 10:15 AM
rating: 0
 
McCaffery

Was this the last update, or will there be one more post-Opening Day?

Apr 04, 2014 06:21 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Mike Gianella
BP staff

This was the last one that was planned.

Apr 04, 2014 06:44 AM
 
McCaffery

Okey-doke.

Apr 04, 2014 17:50 PM
rating: 0
 
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