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January 16, 2014

Fantasy Three-Year Projections

Catchers

by Paul Sporer


Everyone in fantasy sports loves to look ahead. Even in the throes of a pennant race, you can fire up a conversation about next year’s first round and it will go on for an hour. With that in mind, the BP fantasy team will be taking a long-view look at every position this offseason with three-year rankings (composite value over the next three seasons). Since it is Catcher Week, the backstops will kick things off. Catchers are particularly difficult to project over a three-year period because you have guys that shift off of the position entirely while the learning curve for young guys is so sharp given all of their defensive duties.

With Joe Mauer done at the position after this year, he’s not going to rank on the list, as even a first-place finish this year wouldn’t be enough. Meanwhile there is some projection to be done with guys who could move off the position so you will see some of those guys much lower than you might anticipate since I have them delivering zero value at the position in year three.

1. Buster Posey
2. Jonathan Lucroy
3. Wilson Ramos
4. Yadier Molina

All four of these guys will be top catchers in each of the next three seasons. Posey was one of those on the border of removal. The new rule banning home plate collisions certainly improves his chances of remaining a catcher, plus there’s the simple fact that he’s really good at the job, too.

5. Jason Castro
6. Salvador Perez
7. Miguel Montero
8. Yan Gomes
9. Travis d'Arnaud
10. Brian McCann

This group features some of the newer impact names at the position with Castro, Perez, and Gomes, and I obviously expect them to continue delivering big value. Gomes will displace the current top catcher in Cleveland, hence that guy’s appearance in the next tier despite the fact that I expect him to deliver huge value in each of the next two years. d’Arnaud didn’t get a great ranking for 2013 when I was compiling the ranks, but his 2015-2016 value was enough to bring him up into the top 10. McCann will certainly be doing quite a bit of DHing by the time 2016 hits, but he will still be catcher-eligible and delivering big power.

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Fantasy Article Graphical Fantasy Rank... (01/16)
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Fantasy Article Fantasy Three-Year Pro... (01/22)
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