CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

World Series time! Enjoy Premium-level access to most features through the end of the Series!

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (08/01)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (07/17)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (09/12)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Bullpen Report: Deadli... (08/01)

August 1, 2013

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

The Top Ten Prospects Traded at the Deadline

by Jason Parks

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

The forecast called for a prospect-heavy deadline, with rumored deals involving proven major league talents like Cliff Lee and Jake Peavy who were expected to fetch some big names in the minor league world. However, the main haul in the Jake Peavy trade turned out to be young, major league ready talent, not names that appeared on the mid-season top 50. And despite a lot of words getting wasted on the possibilities, the Cliff Lees of the world were not turned into prospect treasure.

This led to a very lackluster deadline, with the Matt Garza trade responsible for moving around the most impact talent, while the majority of deals were centered around fringe prospects or relief arms that aren't easy to get excited about. While the book isn't written on any of the players, the minor leaguers who changed hands this summer are unlikely candidates to change fortunes, and without the dream of a high ceiling or high impact, it's hard to sell the reality of average-at-best skill-sets to fanbases that were anticipating a brighter tomorrow. I tried to anyway. Because I'm a good person.

The Top Five

1. Prospect: Mike Olt
From: Rangers to Cubs
Position: 3B
Notes: The de facto top prospect prize moved this summer, Olt was once a no-brainer top 50 talent, but struggles at the plate have depressed his value, and the Rangers made him expendable in the deal for Matt Garza. The ceiling is still in the first-division range, with an average hit tool but legit over-the-fence power potential, the kind that is quite appealing given his above-average defensive profile at third base. The downside is a hit tool that might fail to play up to average and could limit the utility of his power, making him an exploitable target of higher-level pitching. I’d put a role 5 on him, with some risk given the questions about the bat-to-ball ability.

2. Prospect: Grant Green
From: A’s to Angels
Position: IF/OF
Notes: I’ve never been high on Grant Green, mostly because I never liked the approach or the swing against quality stuff, and the defensive versatility is in name only, as his prowess at any given spot is suspect. It’s a cliché, but he’s a baseball player with skills, so he will be an eventual contributor to a major league roster, either as a super-utility option or a second-division type at second or perhaps third if everything clicks. I’d put a high role 4 on him, with a low risk factor.

3. Prospect: C.J. Edwards
From: Rangers to Cubs
Position: RHP
Notes: Opinions vary on the young arm, but having put eyes on him on numerous occasions, I think the statistical success on the field paints a picture of a prospect with more impact potential than the scouting reports might suggest. The arm is super loose and easy, and I love the way the ball comes out of his hand, working in the low-to-mid 90s with good movement. The curveball can get big, and as with any curveball (especially at the higher level), it’s a pitch predicated on a hitter wanting to swing, which puts pressure on the arm to locate the fastball early in counts. The curve has good shape and projects to be at least an average offering, but a tough pitch to lean on against advanced bats.

Edwards’ body might be his biggest hurdle, as the lengthy frame is very thin and doesn’t project to hold much weight. It’s hard to envision that body holding 200-plus innings year after year without breaking down, regardless of the fluid delivery. I think he could be a no. 4 starter, but might have more impact potential in a late-inning capacity, where his fastball could work in the plus-plus range. Role 5 for me, with a moderate risk because of the body and lack of a secondary pitch that projects as a true plus weapon.

4. Prospect: Danry Vasquez
From: Tigers to Astros
Position: OF
Notes: Underrated acquisition by the Astros; their best move of the summer. Vazquez has a long way to go to realize his full potential, but it’s not hard to dream on the bat, as the hit tool projects in the solid-average-to-plus range, and several scouts put a 6 on the raw power, which has yet to really show up in game action. The defensive profile isn’t all that sexy, so the bat will carry the burden of value. This is a very interesting position prospect, and the 19-year-old Venezuelan could be ready for a big step forward in 2014.

5. Prospect: L.J. Hoes
From: Orioles to Astros
Position: OF
Notes: I’ve always wanted to be higher on Hoes but haven’t been able to buy into the profile. It’s a corner glove with fringe-average run and an average-at-best arm, so to find a home in the starting lineup, his bat is going to have to play. He makes pitchers work, with a good approach and discerning eye, giving him an on-base dimension to go along with some contact ability. The power is below average and the speed isn’t a big weapon, so the offensive profile is limited to hard contact, the kind that is a lot easier to achieve in Triple-A than the majors. I think he has a fringe-average ceiling and will play as a role 4; a quality reserve outfielder with good baseball skills and a low risk factor.

The Next Five:

6. Prospect: Matt Stites
From: Padres to Diamondbacks
Position: RHP
Notes: Big fastball that can touch 99; average slider that can play; late-inning potential; most likely a seventh-inning type.

7. Prospect: Francellis Montas
From: Red Sox to White Sox
Position: RHP
Notes: Flamethrower capable of dialing it up to 100; arm isn’t always super easy; command is an issue; inconsistent secondary stuff; late-inning impact potential but it comes at a high risk.

8. Prospect: Josh Hader
From: Orioles to Astros
Position: LHP
Notes: Long-armed southpaw with projectable arsenal; fastball can work 89-93 with good movement delivered from low slot; curveball is below-average; changeup can show a little something; long-term project but something to work with; could be a role 5 arm, although the risk factor is high because of his age (19) and unrefined secondary arsenal.

9. Prospect: Nick Delmonico
From: Orioles to Brewers
Position: IF
Notes: Has some pop; projects as a 5 power type; bat is below average; glove is fringy at 3B; role 4 prospect with risk; less than ideal profile.

10. Prospect: Kyle Smith
From: Royals to Astros
Position: RHP
Notes: Diminutive right-hander with a very good curveball and feel for pitching; fastball is fringy, working in the upper-80s and peaking in the lower-90s; curveball is straight money pitch, but hard to see it playing at the higher levels unless the fastball ticks up and the command is especially sharp. Role high 4 player for me, but he’s interesting because of the curve and the feel. Size and present fastball raise the risk factor.

Jason Parks is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here

Related Content:  Prospects,  Scouting,  Minor Leagues,  Trade Deadline

8 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: ... (08/01)
<< Previous Column
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (07/17)
Next Column >>
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Y... (09/12)
Next Article >>
Fantasy Article Bullpen Report: Deadli... (08/01)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Pebble Hunting: An Illustrated Guide to the ...
Baseball Therapy: The Truth About Butterflie...
Pitching Backward: How To Get A Hit Off Madi...
Minor League Update: Games of Tuesday, Octob...
Playoff Prospectus: PECOTA Odds and Game Two...
Moonshot: The Royals, the Strike Zone, and a...
Playoff Prospectus: The Other Royals: World ...

MORE FROM AUGUST 1, 2013
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Wednesday, Jul...
Premium Article What You Need to Know: The Will to Walk-Off ...
Fantasy Article Free Agent Watch: Week 18
Fantasy Article Bullpen Report: Deadline Fallout
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Astros Distributed Els...
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Padres Trade for Ian K...
Premium Article Daily Roundup: Around the League: August 1, ...

MORE BY JASON PARKS
2013-08-12 - Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: August 12, 2013
2013-08-09 - Premium Article Eyewitness Accounts: August 9, 2013
2013-08-05 - BP Unfiltered: An Open Mind and an Open Mout...
2013-08-01 - Premium Article Prospects Will Break Your Heart: The Top Ten...
2013-08-01 - Premium Article Transaction Analysis: Astros Distributed Els...
2013-08-01 - Fringe Average Podcast: Episode 16
2013-07-29 - Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: July 29, 2013
More...

MORE PROSPECTS WILL BREAK YOUR HEART
2013-11-04 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Houston Ast...
2013-11-01 - Prospects Will Break Your Heart: The 2013 Ba...
2013-09-12 - Premium Article Prospects Will Break Your Heart: On the Rise...
2013-08-01 - Premium Article Prospects Will Break Your Heart: The Top Ten...
2013-07-17 - Premium Article Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Futures Gam...
2013-07-02 - Premium Article Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Scouting No...
2013-06-27 - Premium Article Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Gettin' Dow...
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2013-08-01 - Premium Article Overthinking It: Trade Deadline Takeaways
2013-07-31 - BP Unfiltered: The 2013 Trade Deadline Trans...