CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

There will be a very short planned maintenance outage of the site tonight (7/22) at 11 PM ET

<< Previous Article
Overthinking It: This ... (07/29)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Doe... (07/22)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Dit... (08/05)
Next Article >>
Overthinking It: Matt ... (07/29)

July 29, 2013

Fantasy Freestyle

Dumping and Correctly Calculating Roster Value

by Mike Gianella


If you are in a keeper league, chances are that your league’s trade deadline is quickly approaching. July 31 and August 1 are popular dates for some leagues. Some AL- and NL-only leagues push the deadline back a little later to allow for players traded from the “other” league to be included in deadline deals. In some keeper leagues, the trade deadline is as late as August 31.

By now, most teams that have given up on 2013 have packed it in already. The trades these teams are making now are primarily focused on fine-tuning their rosters. Much of this fine-tuning comes in the form of adding minor league picks or players for veterans in the last year of their fantasy contracts (available in the draft/auction next year). Some owners might try to swap a categorical excess for a deficiency.

One thing that most fantasy owners neglect to do is look at what the value of a player will be in the context of inflation at next year’s auction. Many fantasy owners simply take an approach where they do the following:

  • Target young talent that is undervalued and/or potentially undervalued next year
  • Jettison high-priced players off of their roster regardless of what those players will earn next year
  • Ignore boring “par” players who won’t form the core of a future contender but will “move the chains” and push a team toward a title

It certainly is important to target young talent and build your core around players like this. However, you do not want to overdo it. Owners who built around Oscar Taveras and Billy Hamilton this year expecting significant contributions were probably rebuilding at some point in June. This isn’t to say that you want to avoid young players. The converse is true. Good young players are the keys to the kingdom. If you speculated on Jean Segura last year and kept him this year, more power to you. Young emerging players should be the foundation of your rebuilding effort.

However, where I think fantasy owners often get lost in the weeds is in ignoring core players who are at a par price but produce $25 or more of stats and complementary players who don’t have the allure of a Taveras but will earn $10-15 consistently year in and year out.

Even more so than the examples above, where owners really get lost is in failing to factor in auction inflation into their value calculations. This ties into the established philosophy I mention above, and compounds the failure of a good fantasy owner to rebuild his team and plan for the following season.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.


Cancel anytime.


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!


That's a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

Related Content:  Trades,  Fantasy

4 comments have been left for this article.

<< Previous Article
Overthinking It: This ... (07/29)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Doe... (07/22)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Dit... (08/05)
Next Article >>
Overthinking It: Matt ... (07/29)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Daily League Strategy: Two Servings of Fland...
Fantasy Article My Model Portfolio: Three-and-a-Half Months ...
Notes About Baseball, 7/22
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Boston Gives 'Em A Li...
Premium Article Minor League Update: Games of Monday, July 2...
Premium Article Moonshot: Accounting for Count
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Your Heart: What Did I ...

MORE FROM JULY 29, 2013
Premium Article Painting the Black: The Mid-Season Unknowns
Premium Article What You Need to Know: Fearing Jose Fernande...
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: Monday, July 29
The Week in Quotes: July 22-28
Overthinking It: Matt Harvey's First Year, H...
Premium Article Daily Roundup: Around the League: July 29, 2...
Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framin...

MORE BY MIKE GIANELLA
2013-08-02 - BP Fantasy Podcast: Episode 53 is Live!
2013-08-01 - Fantasy Article Free Agent Watch: Week 18
2013-08-01 - Fantasy Article Bullpen Report: Deadline Fallout
2013-07-29 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Dumping and Correctly Cal...
2013-07-25 - Fantasy Article Free Agent Watch: Week 17
2013-07-25 - Fantasy Article Bullpen Report: On the Grilli
2013-07-22 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Does Skill Matter?
More...

MORE FANTASY FREESTYLE
2013-08-20 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Should I Play for "The Mo...
2013-08-12 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Inflation Nation
2013-08-05 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Ditch or Play Down the St...
2013-07-29 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Dumping and Correctly Cal...
2013-07-22 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Does Skill Matter?
2013-07-17 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Second-Half Risers and Fa...
2013-07-10 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: The Resurgence of John Da...
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2013-08-12 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Freestyle: Inflation Nation