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April 12, 2013

What You Need to Know

Thursday Night Fight

by Daniel Rathman

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The Thursday Takeaway

Carlos Quentin called it “unfortunate.” Don Mattingly called it “ridiculous.” It was the result of the 88th pitch of Zack Greinke’s start, a 3-2 offering in a 2-1 game, which tailed inside into Quentin’s upper arm, stirring the season’s first benches-clearing brawl.

For Quentin, Thursday’s hit-by-pitch was “the final straw” in a series of high-and-tight deliveries, two of which had previously plunked him. Quentin—at least in the moments immediately following the pitch, and while defending his actions to the media after the game—perceived the latest up-and-in offering as intentional. Greinke, for his part, denied any intent to hit Quentin—who has been beaned 115 times in his career and led the league in that category in 2011 and 2012—in this game or in any previous one.

The count and the situation offered evidence in Greinke’s defense, in Mattingly’s mind and, for the most part, in the Twitter court of opinion:

A PITCHf/x look at Greinke’s pitch locations in the outing supplements his case:

The “6” up and to the left of the strike zone represents the pitch that hit Quentin. If you’re searching for reason to believe that the pitch may simply have gotten away from Greinke and tailed more inside than he intended, then the two pitches even further to the left of the zone than that one would seem to provide it.

Were the consequences of the brawl merely a one-game suspension here, a four-gamer there, the debate would have long ago flamed out. It would not have stolen the Thursday night spotlight from the Athletics, who swept the Angels to run their league-high winning streak to eight, or from the Rangers, who beat Felix Hernandez for the first time since September 24, 2011, or from Juan Uribe, whose pinch-hit home run in the eighth inning led the Dodgers to a 3-2 win. The biggest story coming out of the incident might have been Vin Scully’s use of the word “fertilizer.” But all of that changed soon after the conclusion of the game, when Scully relayed the news that Greinke had sustained a fractured left collarbone, which will sideline him for weeks—far longer than the days for which the commissioner’s office might suspend the other parties involved.

Whether you side with Quentin, who snapped after enduring Greinke’s fastball for the third time, or with Greinke, and—consequently—all of the other pitchers who throw high and inside to Quentin in search of one of his few cold zones, the impact of the injury is undeniable. When the Dodgers host the Padres for a three-game series next Monday through Wednesday, they will need a replacement starter for Tuesday’s middle match, by which point Quentin may be finished with or nearing the end of his associated suspension. And if Greinke’s absence drags into June, the gap between him and Mattingly’s chosen sixth starter could whittle down the odds of the Dodgers prevailing in a competitive National League West race.

We will soon learn about Greinke’s recovery timeline, the league’s suspension decisions, and any other fallout stemming from the sixth-inning brawl. If Quentin is active for Monday’s series opener in Chavez Ravine, it will bear watching whether Chad Billingsley, who projects to start for the Dodgers, chooses to retaliate.

Matchup of the Day

With B.J. Upton (3-for-29) and Jason Heyward (2-for-28) scuffling, the Braves have relied heavily on Justin Upton in the early going, and the right fielder has delivered to the tune of a .353/.395/.971 triple-slash line and a league-high six home runs. The task of limiting the damage from Upton—who went 4-for-4 in the Braves’ series opener in Miami but just 1-for-8 in the ensuing two games—now falls on the left shoulder of Ross Detwiler, who takes the bump for the Nationals in game one of the first showdown between the National League East favorites.

Detwiler pitched well in his first start of the regular season, scattering six hits and a walk to hold the Reds to only one run in six innings, and he logged a 3.38 ERA over five starts against Atlanta last year. He has also gained the upper hand in his past meetings with Upton, holding the ex-Diamondback to a 2-for-11 line and zero extra-base hits, though the only strikeout in the batch came way back on August 5, 2010.

Although Detwiler typically employs a four-pitch mix—fastball, sinker, curveball, changeup—he has essentially been a three-offering pitcher versus Upton, using the curve only twice in 41 deliveries. Upton has, over the course of his career, been susceptible to left-handed changeups in the lower third of the zone, so if Detwiler has good command of the pitch, expect him to try to pound the knees with it tonight. Finding holes in Upton’s swing against southpaws’ fastballs, though, could be a much more challenging task (7:05 p.m. ET).

What to Watch for This Weekend

  • Jeff Samardzija carved up the Pirates and Braves in his first two starts of the season, collecting 22 strikeouts over 13 2/3 innings of work. The 28-year-old right-hander will look to improve his control this time out, after issuing four free passes in his 5 2/3-inning outing against Atlanta, his highest walk total since July 28 of last year. The visiting Giants will counter with Madison Bumgarner in game three at Wrigley Field (Saturday, 1:05 p.m. ET).
     
  • Garrett Jones was a thorn in Johnny Cueto’s side last year, going 5-for-12 with a double, a triple, and a home run in their meetings. Cueto did notch four strikeouts in those dozen at-bats, though, and he’ll try to keep Jones at bay in Saturday’s middle match at PNC Park. The home team is still dead-last in the majors in all three slash categories, taking a .153/.230/.218 line into the series (Saturday, 7:05 p.m. ET).
     
  • Talk about setting a high bar: Marlins rookie Jose Fernandez, who got his first taste of the big-league stage last week, became the first 20-year-old ever to strike out at least eight batters and walk none in his major-league debut. He’ll get a tougher challenge, both offensively—from the Phillies lineup—and from his opposite number, Cole Hamels, in game two of the three-game set in Miami (Saturday, 7:10 p.m. ET).
     
  • Jarrod Parker has pitched poorly in first two regular-season outings, and, in fact, the right-hander’s struggles date back to the beginning of Cactus League play, during which he surrendered 18 runs (16 earned) on 25 hits over 19 1/3 innings. That means the last time Parker pitched well was during the 2012 American League Division Series, when he held his own in a pair of showdowns with Justin Verlander, compiling an 11-to-2 K:BB in 12 combined frames. On Sunday, Parker—who has doled out three walks and notched only one strikeout in each of his first two 2013 starts—will get a chance to right his ship against the Tigers, in a matchup with Anibal Sanchez. The A’s have won eight in a row heading into the series, and are returning home after a 6-0 road trip to Houston and Anaheim (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET).

Daniel Rathman is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Daniel's other articles. You can contact Daniel by clicking here

10 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

kcshankd

Zack's gotta learn the 'side-step, throw to ground/knee' move in his off time. Another option I've always wanted to see is for the pitcher charge back and make an open field tackle with the catcher cleaning up.

Apr 12, 2013 08:26 AM
rating: 1
 
BurrRutledge

The replay I saw showed it as an 89 MPH pitch... not sure if that's backed up with anything other than the instant TV broadcast...

Apr 12, 2013 09:37 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Daniel Rathman
BP staff

Thanks for pointing that out; PITCHf/x has it as an 89 mph four-seamer, so I've changed that sentence to just read "fastball."

Apr 12, 2013 09:55 AM
 
BarryR

This has been described in at least one place as a "brawl". In another as "Zack Greinke breaks collarbone in brawl", as if this was some sort of fight that broke out. It was not. What it was, in legal terms, was assault with the attempt to inflict bodily harm - an attempt which was successful. Greinke did not attempt to fight back, he tried to curl into a position to protect his pitching arm, which didn't prevent the thug from breaking his left collarbone.
It was not an instantaneous reaction - if any sixty foot dash could ever be unintentional - it was an intentional attempt to injure Greinke. Quentin dropped his bat, took two steps, stopped, then decided to assault a man about fifty pounds lighter than him. That is a criminal act and should be charged as one. The Dodgers should sue Quentin for $10 million, which will be the approximate value they have lost in Greinke's services by Quentin's actions. Quentin has no defense for that.
If I were commissioner, I would suspend him indefinitely and bar him from all major league stadiums, pending a conference with the MLBPA - which also represents Greinke. Can you imagine the reaction of Dodger fans when that punk shows up in Los Angeles next week?
I expect none of this to happen. I expect Quentin to get a slap on the wrist of a brief suspension, followed by umpires warning any pitcher who throws a pitch with six inches of his body, which will actually help the thug. Baseball needs to stop this and stop it now, If there was a real commissioner, he would do it.

Apr 12, 2013 10:34 AM
rating: 4
 
Matthew W

Devils advocate here..

But maybe after you throw a projectile 95mph at a dudes head multiple times over the years, you don't say "**** you" when he steps towards the mound and asks if it was intentional..especially with a guy who almost had a broken wrist a few days before from a HBP, and missed half the year last year due to injury.

He's probably just a thug thou...except ..he has never charged the mound in his career before, and he is the leader of HBP.

Apr 12, 2013 14:04 PM
rating: -1
 
BurrRutledge

Playing the other devil's advocate... you're saying because he couldn't get out of the way of a 89MPH pitch, it's justified because it's the first time he's assaulted a pitcher afterward?

Apr 12, 2013 14:50 PM
rating: 0
 
BarryR

That he is the leader in HBP tells you that he should be used to being hit by pitches, since he obviously can't get out of the way. I'll admit that I haven't seen enough of him over the years to know whether he dives into pitches or is just clumsy.
Others who led the league in HBP, Don Baylor, Craig Biggio, et al, never felt the need to charge the mound with intent to injure someone. No one should ever charge the mound - it is an intentional act of violence and doesn't belong in baseball. The commissioner needs to make an example of him to stop this nonsense.

Apr 12, 2013 16:12 PM
rating: 1
 
NYYanks826

The Cubs are sending out Carlos Villanueva against the Giants today, not Jeff Samardzija.

Apr 12, 2013 11:11 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Daniel Rathman
BP staff

Ack, I wrote that section a few days ago and forgot to double check the probables after the rainout earlier this week. Thanks for catching it.

I kept the note on Samardzija, but revised it to reflect Saturday's game.

Apr 12, 2013 11:18 AM
 
mblthd

I'd love to take piece of plywood, draw a 24" diameter (i.e., my uneducated guess as to the average distance between the edge of home plate and a batter's body) circle on it, lean it against a wall, put Carlos Quentin or any other aggrieved batter on a hill 60'6" away from the wall, give him 10 baseballs, let him have 10 throws and see how many times he's able to hit the circle.

The way many batters crowd the plate, I'd guess that the distance between a strike and a hit batter is often less than 24", but still.

Apr 13, 2013 07:44 AM
rating: 1
 
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