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February 22, 2013 Fantasy FreestyleThe Merits of Category DumpingEvery year, there’s usually at least one fantasy player who poses a question along these lines: What totals should I be targeting in my fantasy league this year? Is there a sweet spot I should be trying to aim for in each category? Scott Wilderman of the stat service On Roto was kind enough to provide BP with a sampling of league totals from 2012. Below are the average totals for 42 American League, eight National League, and eight mixed 5x5 leagues. Table 1: American League only 12-team, 5x5 Category Finish Averages |
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How much does this change in 4x4 leagues?
It wouldn't seem like the batting categories would change much from the 5x5 figures to 4x4, because it isn't as if 5x5 players target players who score runs. That's a category that tends to piggyback on the others.
For pitching though, it seems like it would make a difference. Adding strikeouts changes the roster construction notably, making medicore starters better than good relievers. I'd suggest that wins is a bit lower in a 4x4 league but that ERA, WHIP and saves are all higher in a 4x4 league.
"better" not "higher" intended in that last sentence.
People definitely do target players that will score a lot of runs. They tend to be leadoff hitters, often steal a load of bases and so on.
Scott at OnRoto quickly responded. There are zero mixed leagues and 2 NL-only leagues that were as deep, so I didn't bother. But 16 AL-only leagues was enough to offer a comparison
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AhtUhMJ1b4IOdHBrLVhyczA0aGVFZnRuUkZyaDNKNkE#gid=0
Your assumptions are pretty much correct. The differences in the offensive categories are pretty much negligible. But on the pitching side, slightly more wins are purchased at the expense of ERA/WHIP. Middle relievers in 5x5 lose a good portion of their value, particularly if they aren't high whiff guys.
The distribution in saves is also wider. Teams appear to be more likely to dump the category in 4x4, which leads to some higher totals at the top. This also probably has to do with teams carrying more relievers in 4x4. A closer-in-waiting in a deep 4x4 is more likely to be already owned since teams carry more relievers.
I'll have to ask Scott at Onroto if he has any data. I'm in an old school 4x4 league for my AL-only, but as I mentioned in the article, because of the dump culture the category differentials are quite different and perhaps not particularly instructive.