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November 14, 2012
Transaction Analysis
The Never-Ending Torii?
by Sam Miller
Reportedly signed Torii Hunter to a two-year deal worth $26 million. [11/14]
The higher the education level of a population rises, the narrower the spread of views that population holds. Leave a thousand primitive people to figure out on their own the source of life and you’d get 1,000 hypotheses; give them a few generations of socialization and oral history and you’ll get a few dozen religion- and mysticism-based explanations; send them all to universities and you get two, or maybe two and a half: one based on gut, one based on science, and a third that combines the two.
Sometimes it feels like baseball teams don’t have much to argue over any more. Jim Bowden’s remarkably accurate pre-offseason predictions last year drive the point home: The market appears, essentially, efficient, and the differences between teams come down to access, affluence, and execution. But then Torii Hunter hits free agency and shows just how far front-office opinions can still diverge.
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13 comments have been left for this article. 
Surprise Me!
Another similar player offensively to Torii Hunter might be Raul Ibanez. Ibanez highest OPS+ (132) in a single season was at age 37. Torii Hunter's highest OPS+ is also 132, which he did last year during his age 36/37 season. But the similarities don’t end there.
Ibanez’s career slugging percentage is .477 while Hunter’s is .466. Ibanez’s career batting average is .278. Hunter’s is .277. Ibanez’s career OBP is .340. Torii Hunter’s is .335. Ibanez’s career ISO is .192 while Hunter’s is .190. Ibanez’s career OPS+ is 112, Hunter’s is 111.
Ibanez, of course, is three years older than Hunter, though, so that needs to be taken into consideration. Ibanez also bats from the left-side unlike Hunter.
Here is Ibanez's OPS+ and plate appearances in his subsequent seasons since 2009, when at age 37, he put up a 132 OPS+ :
2010: 111 (PAs: 636)
2011: 91 (PAs: 575)
2012: 104 (PAs: 425)
If Hunter put up similar numbers in the next 2 years, do you think the contract would be worth it? Seems so.
Also, smart people of BP, please tear apart anything above that is inaccurate, misinterpreted or needs changes. ;)
Interesting- I had no idea of the similarities.
I would add that Hunter is a superior fielder (who wouldn't be) and baserunner, giving him more value.
Ibanez 2012 (first year in Yankee Stadium) splits:
OPS H: .895
OPS R: .634
WRC+ H: 138
WRC+ R: 64
Not to mention some awful (and expected) L/R splits and awful defense. Methinks Brian Cashman knew what he was doing bring a LH pull hitter to share the DH role into Yankee Stadium.
Definitely. However, when you look at "successful" hitters in over the age of 37 in the last 10 years, most, are left-handed hitters.
When running comparisons to Hunter's season last year, almost none of them were right-handed. All the more reason why I think Hunter will see a dramatic decline.
But maybe not!