November 12, 2012
Resident Fantasy Genius
The Value Picks We Got Right
A couple weeks ago, I looked back over my best and worst predictions of the 2012 season, but I held off on examining the guys I singled out in my preseason Fantasy Tier Rankings as “value picks.” I thought it would be interesting to look at them separately, which I’ll take the time to do today. I’ll focus solely on guys from the one-, two-, and three-star tiers; that’s where you’re going to find the most value, since everyone knows that Albert Pujols is good, even if he was technically one of my “value picks.”
In each of the tables below, you’ll find my value picks along with their stats, their final value in mixed and AL-/NL-only leagues according to our PFM, what the player cost in Tout Wars (Mixed for three stars and AL/NL for one and two stars), and how they performed relative to their Tout Wars price. Keep in mind that when making these tiers I wasn’t attempting to beat Tout’s prices. Tout Wars is made up of some of the smartest fantasy baseball players on the planet and is a rigorous standard to hold oneself to. Instead, I was calling a player a “value” based on my subjective notion of how they would be valued in a normal, non-expert league. I’m using Tout Wars because it’s the only objective standard I have to compare to (and because I love challenges), so keep in mind that in a non-expert league, it’s likely some of these players would have cost less on draft day (and the profit margin would have been higher).