Printer-friendly

Contact Author

November 6, 2012

Overthinking It

This Offseason's Generic-Brand Bargains

by Ben Lindbergh

The free agency period, which got underway over the weekend, is a time when smart teams tread carefully, aware that the market contains as many potential pitfalls as it does opportunities. Land a high-profile free agent and you’re likely to improve your team, but you’ll also run the risk of succumbing to the Winner’s Curse, the tendency of a team to have to overpay for a player in order to outbid all his other suitors.

However, some less prominent players with lower contract demands stand a chance to approximate a more expensive player’s production, so a team can always try to cut costs and minimize risk by looking for comparable players with a little less buzz. Just as a smart shopper saves on over-the-counter medications by buying generic instead of paying a premium for a patent and nice packaging, a smart GM ignores name recognition in favor of production and price.

Last winter, the Yankees passed up the top domestic starter available, C.J. Wilson, in favor of the older Hiroki Kuroda, the Royals opted for elbow surgery survivor Jonathan Broxton instead of making a run at Heath Bell, and the Twins let Michael Cuddyer walk and signed Josh Willingham for more than $10 million less than Cuddyer went on to get from Colorado. After watching their targets outperform pricier options, all three teams have to be happy that they decided to spend smarter. So who are the off-brand alternatives to some of this winter’s most attractive free agents?

RHP Jeremy Guthrie
Compare to: RHP Kyle Lohse
This winter, Lohse is reportedly in line for a contract the size of the one Wilson got last winter. The right-hander is coming off a season in which he led the National League in starts and winning percentage, posting a 2.86 ERA in 211 innings. However, his success over the past two seasons has depended in part on uncharacteristically low BABIPs, and despite the 3.11 ERA he’s recorded over that span, his career ERA remains higher than league average. Even if Lohse takes the lessons he’s learned in St. Louis to his new team, it’s unlikely that the 34-year-old can sustain the same performance.

Guthrie is Lohse light: he’s never had a season as good as Lohse’s 2012, but he’s been just as good, if not better, over the course of his career, despite spending almost all of it in the American League. Before 2012, Guthrie had pitched at least 200 innings in three consecutive seasons—the same number Lohse has pitched in a longer career. He struggled in Colorado to start last season, but following his July trade to the Royals, Guthrie recovered to strike out nearly three batters for every one he walked. He’s six months younger than Lohse and could be about as good to bet on going forward. More importantly, he won’t make Wilson money (or cost his new club a draft pick).

RHP Shaun Marcum
Compare to: RHP Edwin Jackson
Jackson didn’t come close to getting the five-year, $60 million deal he and agent Scott Boras were reportedly seeking last winter (perhaps not surprisingly, the right-hander reportedly found new representation in July). Instead, he settled for a one-year deal. As usual, he missed bats and showed signs of fulfilling his lofty potential, but he finished the season right around league average. Jackson’s occasional inefficiency prevents him from being a true workhorse, but he hasn’t been disabled since 2004, so he can be counted on to rack up innings. He’s expected to command a contract that will look a little more like the one he wanted last time around, though, so he won’t come cheap.