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October 17, 2012

Playoff Prospectus

ALCS Game Four Preview: Yankees at Tigers

by Matthew Kory

Do or die. Put up or shut up. [swear word] or get off the… well, you get the idea. After last night’s episode of Verlander Verlanding, New York finds themselves down three games to none in the best-of-seven series. It’s time for the Yankees to make their stand. Anyone have Kevin Millar’s phone number?

Here are your PECOTA odds and the projected starting lineups for Game Four of the American League Championship Series.

Yankees (C.C. Sabathia) at Tigers (Max Scherzer) – 8 p.m. EST
PECOTA odds of winning: Yankees 53.1 percent, Tigers 46.9 percent, Orioles 0.04 percent.*

*How is that possible? Ask Buck Showalter.

Projected Starting Lineups:

Tigers vs. Sabathia (L)

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Related Content: Playoffs, ALCS, Yankees, Max Scherzer, Cc Sabathia, Tigers

7 comments have been left for this article.

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Johnson Magic

(40728)

0.04 percent huh? so you're saying there's a chance.

Oct 17, 2012 12:46 PM

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rating: 1

Matt Kory

BP staff

(17492)

Stranger things have... well, actually, no, stranger things haven't happened.

Oct 17, 2012 13:33 PM

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DetroitDale

(31270)

Actually, the ninth inning rally showed the kind of signs of life that usually indicate a long slump is finally breaking, (tex's ground ball with eyes for example) combine that with CC putting the team on his massive shoulders and they might just dodge sweep tonight.

Oct 17, 2012 13:52 PM

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rating: 0

Matt Kory

BP staff

(17492)

The Yankees could break out at any time. They have that kind of talent. That said, I'm not sure a seeing-eye grounder portends much.

Oct 17, 2012 14:05 PM

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DetroitDale

(31270)

It was more than that. There were a higher number of foul balls in this start than any other verlander start. There were a lot of 3-2 counts indicating tba yanks are getting back to their old approach of working counts to wear down pitchers, and it helped. They forced a high Lucy count which resulted in a rare hanging breaking ball which mines crushed, then they got two solid base hits to get ibanez up. If coke doesn't throw that perfect 3-2 slider and instead grooves an easy fastball rail is the new Mr. October. It pains me to say it but the yanks didn't lose this game, they just ran out of time.

Tonight's rainless rainout begs several questions. Does the day off help the yanks because now cc pitches this game on full rest or hurt them because now he can't pitch game 7? Does the time off help the hitters get their minds right or give them more time for the slump to eat at them? Does this beak up the slump or what little momentum they worked up in the ninth yesterday? And what about the tigers? Coke wasn't available tonight but now he is. Does leyland go with hot hand coke or give valverde another shot ? Is the time off enough for papa grande to get his mojo back? What about tigers hitters ? They haven't scored much more than the yanks. Does a day off help or hurt them ?

Oct 17, 2012 18:56 PM

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kbeta68

(69025)

FYI, according to Rotowire, Granderson is not in the lineup tonight.

Oct 17, 2012 14:57 PM

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Matt Kory

BP staff

(17492)

Yup. Saw that. I'd guess that won't change PECOTA's percentages by much though I don't speak for PECOTA so I could be wrong.

Oct 17, 2012 15:10 PM

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