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August 21, 2012

Prospects Will Break Your Heart

Bring Me the Head of Gordon Beckham

by Jason Parks

The Backstory:
Gordon Beckham was selected with the eighth overall pick in the 2008 draft, viewed by many as the top infield prospect available in the country. Beckham became a national name after a remarkable junior campaign at the University of Georgia, where his bat exploded to the tune of .411/.519/.804 and he tied all of Division 1 baseball with 28 home runs. After signing for a cool $2.6M, Beckham quickly became the top prospect in the White Sox system and was penciled in as a future major league piece, a player that many were already comparing to Michael Young because of his overall approach to the game. (When I was researching this article, the Michael Young comp was mentioned several times, with words like “instincts,” “hustle,” and “solid but not special” labels attached. I usually scoff at casual comps, the kind that pair average white guys to average white guys or every five-tool athlete to Matt Kemp, but this one made sense on a scouting level.)

Assigned to the full-season Sally League after inking his deal, Beckham didn’t waste anytime proving his mettle, stepping into professional ball with the approach of a seasoned veteran. After the small 14 game sample that saw Beckham show the offensive promise his collegiate campaign suggested was possible, the 21-year-old shortstop proceeded to the prospect-heavy Arizona Fall League, where his bat continued to turn heads; in 66 at-bats, Beckham hit close to .400 while showing patience and power. He was clearly on the fast track, and national prognosticators held him in high regard. He wasn’t considered an elite talent or a game changer, but his skill set and mature approach made him a safe major leaguer, one that could provide solid-average production (at least) for a very long time.

After pushing for a roster spot out of camp in 2009, Beckham started the year in the Southern League, where he was very good, but not so good that people were lighting torches and demanding his promotion after only 38 games. He hit for average and power, and he looked okay defensively, but the approach and the ability to adjust were the attributes that were turning heads in the industry, and after a brief seven game promotion to Triple-A, Beckham became the starting third baseman in the majors. He was 22 years old, playing a new position, taking his hacks under the brightest lights on the biggest stages, and he was more than holding his own. Beckham played in 103 games at the major league level in 2009, hitting a respectable .270/.347/.460, making a persuasive argument that this was just the start of a very fruitful career. After watching Beckham in camp early in 2009, and catching numerous games throughout the season, I was believer in the bat, and I thought he had a chance to be a ~.280 hitter with 25+ doubles a year for the next 10 years.  He looked like a lock.

The story turned sour after his fantasy tale in 2009, and Beckham has fallen flat in each subsequent season. His bat is a wounded animal, slowly dying in plain view. His ability to make solid contact has all but disappeared from his game, and the noisy pop that once separated him from his middle-infield contemporaries is now an inaudible whimper. Everything in his game has taken a step back, and now the player once considered a lock to be a solid major leaguer is now considered a lock to be a solid major league bust.

The Expectations:
Being a top-ten pick in the draft always comes with the heavy luggage of expectation. Beckham was viewed as a bright talent, but more of a high floor player than a high ceiling All-Star type. In college and in the early minors, Beckman played a premium defensive position, but it was a common refrain within the industry that his skill set would be better suited for either second base or perhaps third, with the former offering the best overall value. His arm, actions, and instincts are of major league quality for the position, but the range is fringy and plays better down the spectrum. The hit tool was never seen as a monster tool, but one with solid utility and enough consistency to allow solid-average-to-plus power to flow through it. He wasn’t a premium athlete and he didn’t own any loud tools, but he was a gamer with baseball skills, and after his initial introduction to professional baseball, he looked the part he was cast to play. Gordon Beckham was supposed to be a major league regular at worst, and anything more would be gravy and anything less would be a head-scratcher.

The Quotes:

“Beckham has the rare potential to become a middle-of-the-order run producer who also plays in the middle of the infield. He has a pro's understanding of the strike zone, a quick bat, and at least average power coming out of his smallish frame, with one scout calling him a right-handed Chase Utley. Beyond the tools, he's a max-effort gamer with great defensive instincts and a knack for coming through in key situations.” –Kevin Goldstein (February 2009)