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August 13, 2012

Painting the Black

Same Vogelsong, Second Verse

by R.J. Anderson

When Ryan Vogelsong takes the mound tonight against the Nationals, he has the chance to finish the sixth inning for the 23rd consecutive start. The old parlance about death and taxes doesn’t include a bit about Vogelsong going six innings just yet, but it might soon in San Francisco; if Vogelsong pitches every fifth game over the remainder of the season, he could break Juan Marichal’s club record for the longest streak (31) in a season.  Vogelsong already owns the franchise’s best post-expansion streak, having last month surpassed Matt Cain’s 18-game stretch in 2011.

The impressiveness of Vogelsong’s streak extends beyond the Giants organization. Since the most recent round of expansion, in 1998, there have been 45 streaks as long as 22 starts with six-plus innings. Just 14 of those 45 streaks were able to last 30 or more games. Once you reach that level, your company is mostly Hall of Fame-quality.

Ryan Vogelsong’s Streak Versus the Longest, 1998-2012

There is no guarantee Vogelsong will join the above fraternity. But sitting this close to names like Johnson, Schilling, and Martinez is an accomplishment within itself. Citing Vogelsong as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter prompted guffaws as recently as two years ago. This wasn’t a case of the availability heuristic, where everyone had to see it work before buying in. This was a case of a team turning to one the league’s demonstrated worst starters. Back in 2004, his only 20-plus start season prior to last year, Vogelsong allowed nearly seven runs per nine innings. The story from there is incredulous and indelible. He washed out of a few organizations, went to Japan, came back, washed out of a few more, and finally landed on his feet with the Giants. Now he’s competing for the National League’s ERA crown, for the second year.

Explaining a breakout candidate, particularly one who seemingly came back from the graveyard, involves some backfitting of narrative to data. The key components for Vogelsong’s revival seem to be as follows.

Command
During last season, Mike Fast pointed to Vogelsong’s improved command as a reason for the renaissance. Command is an inside-baseball term to the point where those close to the game are prone to misusage. It does not mean avoiding walks, or throwing strikes. Rather, it is the line of demarcation between strikes and quality strikes. You can try to evaluate command by looking at hit or home run rates, or perhaps with advanced analytical tools, but the public’s best chance of understanding command right now is to pay careful attention.

During Vogelsong’s last outing against the Cardinals, he displayed good fastball command. Take an at-bat against Tyler Greene in the third. Vogelsong threw a four-seamer down and away, a two-seamer down and in, and then a fastball up above the strike zone. Greene had no chance of doing damage with any of these pitches. None leaked over the plate or drifted into a danger zone. They all were located where they needed to be. He kept the ball down in the zone and showed an ability to work both sides of the plate. Giants announcer Mike Krukow summed up the pitcher well, “The fact that he can locate on the corner so consistently, outside, inside, that’s what makes Vogelsong Vogelsong. Not many guys can do that as consistently as he can.”