CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Click here to log in

Click here for forgotten password

Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article

Prospects Will Break Y... (07/03)

Next Article >>
What You Need to Know:... (07/05)

Printer-friendly

July 3, 2012

What the Contenders Need

NL East

by Bradley Ankrom, Jeff Euston and Kevin Goldstein

With a little less than a month to go until the non-waiver trading deadline, talks between teams are heating up. In a seven-part series, several BP authors will be covering the needs, potential fits, and more for the contenders in each division, as well as a rundown of the top 10 player trade targets. Today, we take a look at the NL East.

Washington Nationals

Playoff odds
Opening Day: 17 percent
High: 75 percent (6/14)
Low: 10 percent (3/29)
Current: 72 percent

Payroll picture
The Nationals increased payroll by more that one-third this offseason, pushing their spending north of the $90-million mark. The jump is the biggest for the franchise since the winter of 1999-2000, when Vladimir Guerrero and Ugueth Urbina began to get expensive in Montreal.

Times are different now. Mike Rizzo spent $126 million to sign free agent Jayson Werth before the 2011 season and shelled out another $142 million this winter to lock up Ryan Zimmerman and Gio Gonzalez. That group is due about $50 million annually through the 2016 season.

The rest of this article is restricted to Baseball Prospectus Subscribers.

Not a subscriber?

Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get access to the best baseball content on the web.

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

25 comments have been left for this article.

BP Comment Quick Links

code of conduct

SenatorsGuy

I am thinking what the Nats really need is a high OBP, strong defense, centerfielder. Pushing Harper to right and keeping Morse in left leaves Lombo where he should be - a super-utility guy.

Jul 03, 2012 05:48 AM

rating: 0

This guy

You mean somebody like a Corey Brown perhaps?

Jul 04, 2012 19:24 PM

rating: 1

Jmast7

While the outfield hasn't been as productive as it could be (especially with Kirk and Duda scuffling this past month), the bullpen is a much bigger problem. If the Mets do make any moves at the deadline, it will be to address that.

I hope they stay pat - seems all the names they've been associated with so far are decidedly mediocre. K-Rod 2.0? No thank you.

Jul 03, 2012 05:48 AM

rating: 0

BillJohnson

The Braves will be "reticent" to pull the trigger on a Teheran deal? So you mean they won't talk about it until it happens?

Jul 03, 2012 05:51 AM

rating: 1

Oldwell89

The Braves are going to have to get another arm to compete in 2012, but given their conservative approach it will be interesting to see if they are willing to go for a Grienke sort of player or settle for a mid rotation sort. I think Marcum is overrated, so I would prefer to see them look at Bedard, Garza or even a Jason Vargas sort. It might also make sense for them to inquire about a Balfour or League sort of player to add some depth to the bullpen. Of course they may just end up with a left handed pinch hitter. We shall see..

Jul 03, 2012 07:37 AM

rating: 0

pobothecat

"Michael Bourn will be a free agent in November, and Jason Heyward and many of Atlanta’s young pitchers (Tommy Hanson, Kris Medlen, Jonny Venters, Eric O’Flaherty, and Jair Jurrjens) could file for arbitration in February."

All of which leads me to think that this is the year the Braves do something big. With Prado presumably moving to 3B, the Braves could celebrate Christmas with half a rotation, half a bullpen and no starting outfielders. The closing window is starting to squeak.

Jul 03, 2012 11:30 AM

rating: 1

pobothecat

(whoops.) ... and one starting outfielder.

Jul 03, 2012 11:31 AM

rating: 0

myshkin

The usage of "reticent" has expanded over the past few decades to include general reluctance. See, for example, . Whether you like this turn of affairs is up to you, but it's reasonably commonplace now.

Jul 03, 2012 11:29 AM

rating: 2

myshkin

Oops, the comment system swallowed my URL: http://www.worldwidewords.org/qa/qa-ret2.htm

Jul 03, 2012 11:30 AM

rating: 0

MSGT8500

Am I mistaken? Isn't Garza under team control through 2013?

Jul 03, 2012 06:11 AM

rating: 0

Ben Lindbergh

BP staff

You're not mistaken. Removed him from the list.

Jul 03, 2012 06:13 AM

StarkFist

What the Mets need most is help in the bullpen.

Jul 03, 2012 06:33 AM

rating: 2

Drew106

Agreed. I'll go to war with this rotation. The bullpen needs serious upgrading. More worried about outfield production as well. I'd be VERY interested in Justin Upton for that (if the D-Backs are looking to make a change of scenery type trade) but it seems doubtful they could get him without giving up one of the big 2 pitching prospects.

Jul 05, 2012 09:50 AM

rating: 0

fatted

Kind of hits you hard when Phillies (and even Marlins) aren't on the list, but I can't argue, the title is "What the Contenders Need".

Jul 03, 2012 07:02 AM

rating: 2

epittman

I didn't like Wren's Escobar/Gonzalez trade either, but to be fair he didn't just trade for Gonzalez; he traded for Gonzalez, Tyler Pastornicky, and Tim Collins. I'd argue the latter two, whom you omitted in your summary, provided most of the value in that trade.

Jul 03, 2012 07:59 AM

rating: 2

amazin_mess

Here's hoping the Mets don't trade any prospects.

Jul 03, 2012 08:42 AM

rating: 2

newsense

Why isn't Jayson Werth the Nationals' best outfield upgrade?

Jul 03, 2012 11:03 AM

rating: 5

R.A.Wagman

A few calls here for Erik Bedard as a trade target. With the Pirates doing as well as they have been, methinks that Bedard stays in Pittsburgh.

Jul 03, 2012 20:40 PM

rating: 2

Bradley Ankrom

Fair point. I'm still getting used to this whole "Pirates as contenders" thing, apparently.

Jul 05, 2012 05:44 AM

rating: 0

Richard Bergstrom

Did you practice last year?

Jul 05, 2012 08:22 AM

rating: -1

Bradley Ankrom

A little bit, yes.

Jul 05, 2012 11:21 AM

rating: 0

Richard Bergstrom

Hey I'm a Cubs fan but I find the way Huntington blew up the major league club to rebuild the organization completely fascinating. Seriously, I'd never seen a purge like that. Now, he has a team with promising young players in the majors and a better stocked farm system with some gamebreaking talent on the way. I wouldn't mind in the least if they went on a 2-3 year run.

Jul 05, 2012 15:24 PM

rating: -1

NYYanks826

I think it's inaccurate to include Chris Young as one of the guys "leading" the Mets' rotation. He is a PART of the rotation, and has been contributing, but it seems fair to say that the rotation has been lead by Dickey, Santana, and Jonathon Niese.

Jul 03, 2012 23:51 PM

rating: 1

amazin_mess

As a Mets fan, I totally agree.

Jul 04, 2012 10:11 AM

rating: 1

Robotey

As a Mets fan I've been waiting for the clock to strike midnight all year. This season reminds me a little of 1984--Mets arriving a little early after sucking for a while, but record way ahead of Pythagorean projection. Lost 7-0 to the Cubs fer cryin out loud. It's nice to stay in the hunt for that 2nd wild card, but don't deal another Kazmir in the process.

Jul 09, 2012 19:51 PM

rating: 0

Sorry, fantasy subscribers cannot comment on exclusive premium content.

<< Previous Article

Prospects Will Break Y... (07/03)

Next Article >>
What You Need to Know:... (07/05)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS Dissecting the Draft: Profiling Prep Arms Daily Hit List: Friday, May 17 In A Pickle: How Great Thou Bart Pitcher Profile: Scouting Alberto Gonzalez a... Baseball ProGUESTus: On the Origin of the Sw... What You Need to Know: Going the Wrong Ray Raising Aces: Stuffing the Ballot, First Qua...	MORE FROM JULY 3, 2012 Overthinking It: Does Arbitration Drive Play... Western Front: Ready, Set, No! Baseball ProGUESTus: Is Starlin Castro the K... Value Picks: First, Third, and DH for 7/3/12 Collateral Damage Daily: Tuesday, July 3 Daily Hit List: Tuesday, July 3 What You Need to Know: Tuesday, July 3
MORE BY BRADLEY ANKROM 2013-02-13 - Arbitration Showdown: Mock Hearing: Jordan Z... 2012-07-04 - BP Podcast: Episode 98: I Think It Would Mak... 2012-07-04 - Future Shock Blog: A Quick Look at Dominguez... 2012-07-03 - What the Contenders Need 2012-07-03 - Future Shock Blog: Minor League Update: Game... 2012-06-27 - What the Contenders Need 2012-06-26 - BP Unfiltered: Adam Dunn Doing Adam Dunn-lik... More...