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June 21, 2012

On the Beat

Who Wants to be the Next Skipper?

by John Perrotto

The All-Star break is coming into view, yet no managers have been fired this season. In fact, there have been only a few reports of any of the 30 major-league skippers even possibly being in trouble. But it will eventually happen. Some owner will finally get fed up, drop the axe, and his club will begin a managerial search.

For the past two years, we have listed our top 10 managerial prospects. Someone must have never managed in the major leagues on a full-time basis or been ranked on either of our two previous lists in 2010 or 2011 in order to make this list.

The no-repeat rule means that such worthy candidates as Sandy Alomar Jr., Joey Cora, DeMarlo Hale, Pete Mackanin, Ryne Sandberg, and Ron Wotus aren't on this year's list. We're also proud to say that four men who have appeared on the first two editions of the list are now major-league managers: John Farrell, Don Mattingly, Ron Roenicke, and Dale Sveum.

This list was compiled through a mixture of personal observations and discussions with front-office types, scouts, and managers. The 10 prospects are listed in alphabetical order.

John Baker
Age: 31
Current position: Padres backup catcher
Background: Baker was the Athletics' fourth-round draft pick from the University of California in their famous "Moneyball" draft in 2002. He was traded to the Marlins after the 2006 season, made his major-league debut with them in 2008, and was traded to the Padres during the past offseason.
Why he is qualified: He is extremely perceptive and has a broader knowledge of the inner workings of baseball than most players. He understands how a front office works and the specific roles within the organization. He also has a firm grasp of sabermetric principles.

Jeff Banister
Age: 48
Current position: Pirates bench coach
Background: Banister was the Pirates' 25^th-round draft pick in 1986 from the University of Houston and spent his entire playing career in the organization as a catcher from 1986-93, getting one major-league plate appearance 1991. He managed in the Pirates' farm system from 1994-98, served as a coach on their major-league staff from 1999-2002, was their minor-league field coordinator from 2003-10, then rejoined the major-league coaching staff last season.
Why he is qualified: Banister has outstanding people skills and knowledge of the game. He so impressed Pirates manager Clint Hurdle that he hired Banister as his bench coach after the two were finalists for the skipper's job in November 2010. Banister has a mental toughness and sense of conviction that comes from beating bone cancer and also overcoming seven operations that were required to repair a broken leg and ankle he suffered in a home-plate collision while in junior college.

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draysbay

(48151)

Does this mean that us Rays fans don't have to worry about Davey Martinez getting poached this off-season? I loved David Laurila's interview with him: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/qa-dave-martinez-tampa-bay-bench-coach/

It gave a ton of insight into how he's the yin to Joe Maddon's yang and he seemed like a very highly sought candidate coming into the season. By not being on the list is this something you're hearing in the industry (that he wants to stay with the Rays) or is it more of a gut feeling or was it just an oversight?

Jun 21, 2012 07:25 AM

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John Carter

(22689)

As an expansion draftee Eric Young fits in with the tradition of many other successful managers who were expansion picks: Gil Hodges, Roger Craig, Dom Zimmer, Buck Rogers, Lou Piniella, Jim Fregosi, Cito Gaston, Eric Wedge, and Joe Girardi.

Here is an interesting four part article on expansion picks from Bill James Online:

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_all-time_greatest_expansion_picks-part_1/?AuthorId=18

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_all-time_greatest_expansion_picks-part_2/?AuthorId=18

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_all-time_greatest_expansion_picks-part_3/?AuthorId=18

http://www.billjamesonline.com/the_all-time_greatest_expansion_picks-part_4/?AuthorId=18

Jun 21, 2012 07:43 AM

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asstarr1

(35544)

This is a tangent to the Clemens note, but why is it that steriod users who are known (Palmeiro), suspected (Bagwell), or overturned (Braun) are the scourge of baseball, but Andy Petite admitted to using HGH and he's a feel good story for his comeback?

Jun 21, 2012 11:39 AM

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John Carter

(22689)

a) You might be exaggerating the differences in public perceptions of these players. b) Everybody should be judged individually if you are going to do any judging at all. Honesty and treating the public with respect are virtues, too.

Jun 21, 2012 15:43 PM

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pobothecat

(56629)

And how many points for "honesty" does Pettite get when, seeing the tide turn against McNamee, he essentially retracts previous testimony about seeing Clemens take PEDs? Zero from me.

Jun 21, 2012 21:21 PM

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soBC

(2918)

I really like your stuff John, but to say that you're judging players for the HOF solely on performance is hard to take seriously. If Clemens were a racist, or a child molester, or selling cocaine to other players, or any one of a number of things you are likely to find offensive, I have no doubt it would affect your vote. Instead of masquerading as a guy who doesn't take morality into the equation, just admit that you do judge players against your moral code, but being against cheating isn't on the list.

The logic behind the "I was ok with it because everyone else was doing it" argument is especially disappointing. If playing by the rules has no bearing on the game, then why bother having rules at all. Since we're not the morality police, let's just have the players snort coke, take steroids, beat their wives, sexually abuse their children, and steal the savings accounts of little old ladies.

But the reality is, of course we're the morality police. People are judged by more than performance, its just that everybody's moral compass is different. I have a hard time seeing how anyone would vote O.J. into the Hall if the vote was today, and then sit in the audience and applaud as he talked about his greatness on the field.

Judging solely on performance is exactly why writers shouldn't be judging players to begin with. They're captivated by their audience they're supposed to evaluate, in the same way that the SEC is with Wall Street. If the only criteria used to pick players for the HOF was actually performance, you could just use statistics like WARP and be done with it.

My apologies for the rant.

Jun 21, 2012 19:13 PM

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pobothecat

(56629)

No apology necessary. I think you're spot on.

Jun 21, 2012 21:23 PM

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Behemoth

(46675)

The main problem with your rant is that John doesn't actually say what you accuse him of. He says his job isn't to be a morality policeman, not that he would never allow moral issues to impact on a decision.

Jun 22, 2012 05:52 AM

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NYYanks826

(37443)

I really like the thought about struggling pitchers considering taking on the knuckleball. It would be great for baseball to have R.A. Dickey usher in a knuckleball renaissance after the pitch was so close to extinction just a couple of years ago.

Jun 22, 2012 05:31 AM

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terryspen

(30748)

When I lived in Single-A cities, I would often wonder why some of the fil-out-the-roster pitchers (the 27-year-olds with an 85 mph fastball) didn't give a knuckleball a shot as it was their only chance of moving up.

I know from experience that throwing one consistently from a mound isn't as easy as one might think - and I never had a professional batter ready to pounce on any flat ones. But if it's your only hope of cashing an MLB lotto ticket, what the heck -- you're going to be getting a real job in a year or two anyway.

I thought maybe it was a point of pride -- "I made it this far with the stuff I have (back in high school, I could throw that speed ball by you, make you look like a fool, boy) and if I could just get my slider to bite a little more and not telegraph my change-up..... Anyway, I'm not going to throw some sissy pitch like a knuckleball."

There is also the mental part -- committing to throwing a pitch that you know is going to get blasted if you make a mistake and then throwing it again after that inevitably happens.

But with Dickey's success, some undoubtedly will give it a shot -- and I'll love to see it.

Jun 22, 2012 11:12 AM

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On the Beat: Trusting ... (06/14)

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Overthinking It: Melky... (06/21)

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