CSS Button No Image Css3Menu.com

Baseball Prospectus home
  
  
Click here to log in Click here for forgotten password Click here to subscribe

<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Value Picks: Second, S... (07/19)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Weekly P... (07/15)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: King of ... (07/20)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Divide and Conquer, NL... (07/19)

July 19, 2011

Fantasy Beat

Kimbrel and Venters: Ticking Time Bombs?

by Jason Collette

the archives are now free.

All Baseball Prospectus Premium and Fantasy articles more than a year old are now free as a thank you to the entire Internet for making our work possible.

Not a subscriber? Get exclusive content like this delivered hot to your inbox every weekday. Click here for more information on Baseball Prospectus subscriptions or use the buttons to the right to subscribe and get instant access to the best baseball content on the web.

Subscribe for $4.95 per month
Recurring subscription - cancel anytime.


a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Purchase a $39.95 gift subscription
a 33% savings over the monthly price!

Already a subscriber? Click here and use the blue login bar to log in.

One of the surprise stories in the National League this season has been the success of the Atlanta Braves. They have the third best record in all of baseball and the second best record in the National League despite the struggles of Dan Uggla and Jason Heyward and the injuries to key players such as Martin Prado.

A big part of that success can be credited to the pitching staff that currently has the highest team VORP in the league—a full 19 points over the San Francisco Giants—and the second-highest team FRA—just 0.1 points behind the vaunted Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff. Their actual 3.12 ERA also trails the Phillies, but plate appearances against Braves pitchers end in strikeouts 21 percent of the time, which is tied with the Giants for the best in baseball. As good as Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, and Brandon Beachy have been, the team’s bullpen has been incredible. Lefties Eric O’Flaherty and George Sherrill have helped bridge the gap between the starting rotation and their thunder-and-lightning combination of Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters at the back end of the bullpen.

That duo had fewer than 105 innings of major league experience heading into this season, and most of that belonged to Venters since he spent the majority of 2010 with the Braves. So far this season, Kimbrel has a 1.93 SIERA while Venters sits at 2.38, and the duo is arguably the deadliest one-two punch in baseball. That said, they are also one of the most over-worked duos in baseball. Coming out of the break, Venters has pitched in 51 games so far in 2011 while Kimbrel has thrown in 47 contests, giving the due a combined 98 games pitched. If they both continue on their current pace, Kimbrel will appear in 83 games while Venters will appear in 89. Manager Freddi Gonzalez has talked about scaling back the work for the dastardly duo, but in the heat of a playoff race, it is tough to imagine him living up to those words.

Not only are both pitchers on pace to appear in more than 80 games each, both are on pace to work more than 80 innings this season. Kimbrel is on pace for 81 innings of work while Venters is on pace for a whopping 97 innings of work. In today’s day and age of bullpen usage, that is not a common feat. In fact, nobody has done it in the past two seasons, but Venters (surprise!) fell one outing shy of doing so last season.

Many people will point to Joe Torre for his usage of Scott Proctor in 2006 and 2007 as bad usage of a reliever. Torre used him in 115 games before he was shipped off to the Dodgers, where Grady Little used Proctor 31 times and to give him back-to-back seasons of 83 appearances. Another example was Tom Kelly’s fondness for “Everyday” Eddie Guardado, who was used 83 times in a 78-win season in the first of an eight-season run of at least 60 appearances.  Every pitcher is different, though. After all, Joe Maddon utilized Randy Choate in 85 contests last season, but Choate has shown no ill effects this season as he has been a very dominating lefty specialist for the Marlins.

The effect of appearances and innings is up for debate, but how does a double dose of those two factors affect pitchers the following season? Since we have two pitchers on pace to hit those measures on the same team—both of which have solid-to-excellent value in both redraft and keeper leagues—let’s take a look at how pitchers that go 80x80 do the season following such arduous work.

Over the past 20 seasons, 42 pitchers have broken the 80x80 barrier in a single season, starting with Juan Agosto in 1990 and ending with Carlos Marmol in 2008. I focus on the last 20 seasons since bullpen usage has become more specialized over the past twenty or so years compared to the early 80’s and prior, when relievers would routinely go two to three innings. The sample size is admittedly small due to those constraints, but even expanding the date range back to post-WWII only increases the sample size by another 30 pitcher seasons.

The graphs below show how the 80x80 members performed, as a whole, the season in which they made the 80x80 club along with how they performed the season following that accomplishment.  The graphs also show a control group of relievers with “normal” workloads. I’ve defined “normal” as pitchers who threw between 50 and 70 innings out of the bullpen in a given season.
 

By Games Pitched

Only three pitchers—Steve Kline (2000), Paul Quantrill (2001), and Jon Rauch (2006)—saw their appearances go up the following season. 16 other pitchers saw their appearances decline by at least 20 games or more with Peter Moylan and Oscar Villareal missing significant chunks of the following season with elbow injuries. However, while the 80x80 group saw an 18 percent reduction in their appearances the following season, the Normal group saw a 20 percent reduction in appearances.
 

By Innings Pitched

Only Salomon Torres (2004) saw an increase in innings after his 80x80 season and, at that, it was an increase of just two and two-thirds innings. Torres was unable to repeat the feat in 2007, however, as he threw 41 fewer innings that year following his final 80x80 season, joining Billy Koch, Greg H. Harris, Proctor, Villareal, and Moylan as pitchers who saw their workload drop by at least 50 percent due to injury or ineffectiveness. In all, 17 different pitchers saw their innings total drop by at least 24 innings the season after working over 80 innings. On the whole, the 80x80 group saw a 24 percent reduction in innings the following season while the normal group saw just an 18 percent reduction in workload.
 

By ERA

Obviously, there are many influences on a pitcher’s ERA from one season to the next, and our sample size may not be large enough to drown out all the noise.  Brad Clontz actually saw his ERA improve by nearly two full runs, one of 16 different pitchers who saw their ERA improve by at least one full run after going 80x80. Villareal, Harris, and J.C. Romero, however, all saw their ERA’s worsen by three runs or more. 80x80 pitchers, as a group, saw their ERA increase by 89 percent while the Normal group increased by just 73 percent.
 

By WHIP

Kline, Swindell, Capps, Rauch, and Turk Wendell are the only five pitchers who saw an improvement in their WHIP a season after going 80x80. Stan Belinda, Quantrill, and Torres (twice) saw no change, while everyone else suffered a drop-off with Romero, Marmol, and Aaron Heilman suffering some of the worst damage.  The difference in group WHIP changes is much more noticeable than group ERA changes as the 80x80 group saw a 16 percent spike in their WHIP compared to just a 7 percent spike for the Normal group.
 

By Strikeout to Walk Ratio

14 pitchers here actually improved the season following the high workloads with Chad Qualls and Jon Rauch showing the most improvement.  28 pitchers, however, showed a decline in their command of strike zone (as measured by K/BB) led by Quantrill (who went from a 4.8 ratio in 2001 to a 2.1 ratio in 2002). The Normal group was able to nearly repeat their strikeout to walk ratio in the following season while the 80x80 team was much less successful
 

By Strikeout Rate

Surprisingly, 19 pitchers saw an improvement in their strikeout rate following an 80x80 season with Proctor leading the way; his strikeout rate jumped four full points from 2007 to 2008 despite the rest of his line declining badly. 23 pitchers saw their rates decline with Belinda, Rod Beck, Mike Timlin, and Felix Rodriguez all suffering a drop-off of two or more strikeouts per nine innings.  Interestingly, the 80x80 group suffered a drop-off only half as severe as the control group in this metric.
 

Conclusions
The only thing we can say with any amount of certainty is that Kimbrel and Venters are going to work less next season, which is not exactly a tremendous revelation. History tells us, however, that relievers who work in at least 80 games with at least 80 innings pitched in a given season have collectively had worse results the next season with some even suffering arm-related injuries. It is typically good practice to handcuff your closer with his setup man in case something were to happen, but when that setup man is suffering from the same usage patterns as the closer, it creates a very interesting situation.  Fantasy owners will need to monitor the usage of Kimbrel and Venters moving forward, especially in keeper leagues, keeping the results of this study in mind as they start looking toward their 2012 roster plans.

Jason Collette is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Jason's other articles. You can contact Jason by clicking here

Related Content:  The Who,  Work,  Bad Season,  Jon Rauch

8 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

Lopecci

Nice article Jason. I love this one especially, because so many "experts" out there have questioned Fredi's bullpen management this year. One expert will say "he should have brought in Kimbrel with a tie game on the road in the 10th" (even though he pitched in the previous 4 of 6 games). Another expert will say, "he's going to burn Venters out before the year is up". Etc, Etc. So whats too much, or not enough? Who really knows? The way I see it, and from what most other people say, relievers are pretty much a dime a dozen, good for a few years, then fades away (with a few notable exceptions). I would say managing your pitchers would have to be on a day to day basis. I think a good manager knows if a guy is getting worn down or not. Lots of good debates over stuff like this. Thanks again Jason !!

Jul 19, 2011 06:00 AM
rating: 0
 
ttt

What about a guy like Pedro Feliciano, who pitched in a lot of games (64,78,86,88,92) but not that many innings (never more than 64)? Is the lefty specialist a weird thing?

Jul 19, 2011 06:56 AM
rating: 0
 
BP staff member Jason Collette
BP staff

Since LOOGY's typically do not have a lot of fantasy value, I went with the 80 and 80 rather than 80 or 80 approach.

Jul 19, 2011 11:57 AM
 
ScottyB

It is also interesting that, since only the best relievers are typically able/used in 80x80, even with their performance drop-off, they are still better than other relieving options. Just don't over-pay.

Jul 19, 2011 11:25 AM
rating: 0
 
BindleStiff

The concluding paragraph appears to suggest that 80/80 pitchers, as a whole, have worse results in season X+1 because they have been worked hard in season X.

But couldn't it be simply that the pitchers were more likely to reach 80/80 in season X because they were achieving results that were closer to the high end of what they could be expected to achieve? And thus likely to regress further the following year?

Jul 19, 2011 12:11 PM
rating: 3
 
BP staff member Jason Collette
BP staff

"The only thing we can say with any amount of certainty is that Kimbrel and Venters are going to work less next season, which is not exactly a tremendous revelation"

The rest of it is certainly up for debate. Regression and injury can come up making it tougher for success to stay at current levels, but the meme out there right now that Fredi is going to kill these guys by September just isn't that conclusive to be out there like it is.

Jul 19, 2011 12:41 PM
 
BindleStiff

@JC

Thanks for the reply, yes I agree that the meme is probably a bit overplayed. Good article btw.

Incidentally, walk rate was not addressed in the article but taking the K rate and the K/BB rate and then solving for the BB rate, the 80/80 guys did see an increase in BB rate from 2.7 to 3.2 (roughly a 19% increase). From what I recall, BB rate normalizes fairly quickly, so this is somewhat interesting.

The walk rate of the control group actually went in the other direction, from 3.4 in year X to 3.2 in year X+1.

Jul 19, 2011 13:05 PM
rating: 0
 
drawbb

I'd like to see the word "meme" die an instantaneous death. Definitely the most pretentious term of the last 2-3 years along with "going/went viral".

Jul 23, 2011 23:25 PM
rating: 0
 
You must be a Premium subscriber to post a comment.
Not a subscriber? Sign up today!
<< Previous Article
Fantasy Article Value Picks: Second, S... (07/19)
<< Previous Column
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Weekly P... (07/15)
Next Column >>
Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: King of ... (07/20)
Next Article >>
Premium Article Divide and Conquer, NL... (07/19)

RECENTLY AT BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
Fantasy Rounders: Turn On the Green Light
Premium Article The Prospectus Hit List: June 29, 2015
Premium Article Raising Aces: 2015 Draft Audit, Part 3
Premium Article Prospect Profile: Yoan Moncada
Premium Article Transaction Analysis: The Sandberg Goeth
Premium Article BP Milwaukee
Premium Article Monday Morning Ten Pack: June 29, 2015

MORE FROM JULY 19, 2011
Premium Article Prospects Will Break Your Heart: Caught Up i...
Pebble Hunting: Footloose and Fastball-Free
The BP Broadside: Joe Girardi's Comfort Thin...
Painting the Black: Fragile in Florida?
Premium Article Expanded Horizons: What's it Thome?
Premium Article Divide and Conquer, NL West: To Serve the Yo...
Fantasy Article Value Picks: Second, Short, and Catcher for ...

MORE BY JASON COLLETTE
2011-07-27 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Expectations and Disappointmen...
2011-07-25 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: The Future of Luke Scott
2011-07-22 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: The Two Sides of Jhoulys Chaci...
2011-07-19 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Kimbrel and Venters: Ticking T...
2011-07-13 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Tout Wars Mixed 1st Half Recap
2011-07-11 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Tout Wars NL 1st Half Recap
2011-07-08 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Tout Wars AL 1st Half Recap
More...

MORE FANTASY BEAT
2011-07-22 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #16
2011-07-22 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: The Two Sides of Jhoulys Chaci...
2011-07-20 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: King of the Royal Rotation
2011-07-19 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Kimbrel and Venters: Ticking T...
2011-07-15 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Weekly Planner #15
2011-07-14 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Innings Caps: Hidden Champions...
2011-07-13 - Fantasy Article Fantasy Beat: Tout Wars Mixed 1st Half Recap
More...

INCOMING ARTICLE LINKS
2013-05-20 - Premium Article Painting the Black: Surgery Comes for the Ac...
2011-07-21 - Fantasy Article Resident Fantasy Genius: Second-Half Stat Sl...