In preparation for BP articles and various fantasy drafts, I have been using average values for the five standard roto categories for each position in order to get a read on what should be expected from each position and each category going into the 2011 season. I figured I'd share that data with BP readers as a quick resource for comparison, especially with PECOTA projections.
These averages were calculated using 2008 to 2010 MLB data weighted 5/4/3, with the most recent season weighted the heaviest. They are intended as a simple projection for the 2011 season. All averages for counting stats were given per 600 PA, with the exception of catcher, which is given per 500 PA (seems more appropriate given the playing time catchers usually receive). In addition to the five standard roto categories, OBP, SLG, and OPS were provided. Each category was calculated using data from the pool of all major league players, not necessarily players who were fantasy league worthy only. As a result, these numbers should be lower than the averages you would see in a typical mixed league and should be bumped up accordingly. Use this is a guideline for comparison, not a steadfast rule.
I am currently working on averages based on players from 2008 to 2010 who qualified for the batting title and averages based on PECOTA projections for players whom the Depth Charts have qualifiying for the batting title in 2011. Both of these changes would assist in providing a more accurate fantasy-relevant reference for averages.
Here's the spreadsheet. I hope this assists you during your fantasy drafting season.
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1) AB would be helpful. It's linked to counting stats, but helpful nonetheless. For example, catchers BA is .253 -- but is that over 300 AB or 500?
2) It would be interesting to see this data on a league-specific basis (NL only, for example).
The averages are for PA, not AB. Eight to ten catches make 500 PA per season, though I could always drop that to 450 PA.
Maybe the spreadsheet would be helpful if a "bumping up" methodology more specific than "accordingly" was provided. Absent that, I don't see how it's a useful benchmark.
This is a great start on a valuable fantasy tool. As has been mentioned, its practical application is limited since it is not selective towards just fantasy worthy players, but I appreciate your effort and look forward to something a little more specific.
I measure replacement level, fantasy or real life, as a level of overall contribution below average. That is, there's no real way of showing you what roto replacement level RBI looks like, but there is a way to show what an overall replacement level performance looks like for a player (in terms of z-scores or PFM's auction values).
I've been playing standard and roto forever, and my friends and I are trying auction for the first time. Just have a few questions regarding the settings. Thanks.
Any one of the BP Fantasy staff would be happy to answer your questions. Click on the contact link at the end of the post and you can direct an email to myself, and I can forward it to any of the rest of the staff for collaboration as needed.
I'm happy to offer whatever auction wisdom I've accumulated.
Phase 1 is where the superstars get nominated Everybody has a full bank, and if you have to have Hanley, what's the difference between $44 and $46? The trick here is that you almost always will have to "overpay" for the true superstars. Spend too much here and you will have nothing but filler and gambles for 3/4 of your roster. Spend too little, and you're counting on nice complementary players like Nick Swisher and Vladimir Guerrero to anchor your offense.
The beauty of an auction is that you can obtain multiple "first round" players. Last year, one manager got Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Carl Crawford, and Roy Halladay in the first hour. In shallow leagues, this is an especially viable approach, because replacement level free agents are still useful players. Much riskier in shallow leagues, where it might mean starting Brendan Ryan, Carlos Gomez and Melvin Mora just because you think they'll get regular ABs.
In phase 1, lots of managers try to get money off the table, nominating high-profile guys they have no interest in but know will go for real money. It is immensely satisfying when I nominate Carlos Zambrano, who I internally value at $4-$5, and somebody pays $15.
Usually, a handful of scrubs are nominated in phase 1. Either the nominating manager thinks he's a sleeper, or he's trying to get someone to waste a couple of precious dollars on complete garbage because "the book" says he's worth $4. If you think that scrub is a sleeper, wait to see if there is any interest. If it's nothing but crickets for 4-5 seconds, you can probably have him for $2. That's how I got 27 HR from a catcher-eligible Brandon Inge two years ago.
After this initial rush, many managers have seriously depleted their funds and have acquired their "must haves," and so they turn timid. They might keep bidding, but they drop out quickly. The ones who were most aggressive acquiring stars might not bid at all for an hour, waiting until more managers are as broke as they are.
This is phase 2, when the bargains happen. Last year, this is when I got Brett Gardner for $3 and Colby Rasmus for $2. Know which guys you like in tiers 2 and 3, and take your shots here.
Be aggressive. Don't get into bidding wars, but don't be afraid to bid $7 for a guy you think is worth $14, just because the guy just before him went for only $5 and you thought he was just as good (and, obviously, the only reason you should have allowed somebody else to buy that guy for $5 is that you had the position filled). The goal isn't to be able to brag about getting the single best bargain, but to get as many cheap contributors as possible. The better and more self-evident the bargains are, the shorter phase 2 lasts. It is rarely more than 20 players, although profit opportunities will crop up, especially for less well known players.
Then, curiously, the prices start to go up. Managers realize they're missing out on bargains so they get back in. Managers realize that there are only two adequate middle infielders left, and four teams need to fill that spot. Managers realize that there are only 3 established stars or quasi-stars left. In this stage of the very same auction last year, Erick Aybar went for $24 -- the same price as Dustin Pedroia a couple of hours earlier.
Then it settles down to mostly dollar picks, with the occasional bidding war between the handful of managers who can bid more than $1 (two years ago I got Andrew McCutchen for $4 at this phase). In my league, this means guys in position battles, middle relievers, rookies who will probably get a call up in June, veterans who will probably come off the DL in May, the half of a platoon that starts against righty pitchers, and second catchers. Some of these guys will return serious value, but all carry high levels of risk or low ceilings. I prefer to go with high risk hitters and middle relievers with good ratios.
There is a generally a premium on players in local markets, and a discount for players on low profile teams in distant markets. If your league members are from California, know the rosters of the Pirates, Orioles, Blue Jays and Marlins cold. Your competition will know who Hanley and Jose Bautista are, but you might be able to get Neil Walker, Gaby Sanchez, Ricky Romero, and Luke Scott for a buck or two (in my league, that would have been serious profit last year)
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