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February 25, 2011

Fantasy Beat

Scoresheet Draft Prep, BP Kings, and You

by Rob McQuown

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 Making one pick every day and a half is, how shall I say, not exactly rollicking fun.

– King Kaufman

So it is with Scoresheet drafts.  Unlike standard fantasy formats, where the draft zips by in a couple hours, casting the die for an entire season in 120 short minutes, Scoresheet drafts can last days or weeks, depending upon the configuration.  In the “BP Kings” league, the format is 24 teams, both leagues (BL), and up to 10 keepers per team.  Here's how things have unfolded so far, starting last Friday:

Round 4(teams which kept only 3 players could participate):

Team 10 (Sky Kalkman) drafted 1028 Mil P Shaun Marcum
Team 1 (Geoff Young) drafted 1464 Ari 2B Kelly Johnson

Round 5:
Team 10 (Sky Kalkman) drafted 1504 SF 3B Pablo Sandoval
Team 1 (Geoff Young) drafted 1438 NYN 1B Ike Davis

Round 6:
Team 10 (Sky Kalkman) drafted 13 ChA P Edwin Jackson
Team 1 (Geoff Young) drafted 26 ChA P Gavin Floyd

Round 7:
Team 10 (Sky Kalkman) drafted 421 TB 2B Ben Zobrist
Team 23 (John Erhardt / Brandon Warne) drafted 464 Min 3B Danny Valencia
Team 1 (Geoff Young) drafted 454 Tex 3B Michael Young

Round 8:
Team 10 (Sky Kalkman) drafted 1430 SF 1B Aubrey Huff
Team 2 (Jeff Erickson) drafted 398 Cle 1B Matt LaPorta
Team 23 (John Erhardt / Brandon Warne) drafted 500 Bal SS J.J. Hardy
Team 1 (Geoff Young) drafted 1638 SD OF Cameron Maybin

Round 9:
Team 10 (Sky Kalkman) drafted 1440 StL 1B Lance Berkman
Team 12 (Paul Swydan) drafted 342 TB C John Jaso
Team 2 (Jeff Erickson) drafted 1053 Hou P Bud Norris
Team 17 (Marc Normandin) drafted 1605 NYN OF Angel Pagan
Team 15 (Jeff Angus / Grant Sterling) drafted 1084 Hou P J.A. Happ
Team 23 (John Erhardt / Brandon Warne) drafted 1468 SD 2B Orlando Hudson
Team 1 (Geoff Young) drafted 1545 SD SS Jason Bartlett

Round 10:
Team 10 (Sky Kalkman) drafted 493 Oak SS Cliff Pennington
Team 11 (Rob McQuown / Brian Joseph) drafted 1095 Pit P James McDonald
Team 12 (Paul Swydan) drafted 651 TB OF Manny Ramirez
Team 2 (Jeff Erickson) drafted 29 Cle P Justin Masterson
Team 17 (Marc Normandin) drafted 543 Min OF Denard Span
Team 15 (Jeff Angus / Grant Sterling) drafted 549 Ana OF Vernon Wells
Team 23 (John Erhardt / Brandon Warne) drafted 403 KC 1B Kila Ka'aihue
Team 1 (Geoff Young) drafted 1236 SD SR Heath Bell

Round 11:
Team 8 (Pete McCarthy) drafted 1543 Was SS Ian Desmond
Team 6 (Al Melchior) drafted 1628 Flo OF Chris Coghlan
Team 5 (Jeffrey Ma) drafted 465 KC 3B Wilson Betemit (with team 10's pick)
Team 11 (Rob McQuown / Brian Joseph) drafted 1370 Phi C Carlos Ruiz
Team 4 (Nate Stephens) drafted 1629 Col OF Seth Smith
Team 12 (Paul Swydan) drafted 487 NYA SS Derek Jeter

Feb 20:  Team 21 (Jordan Greenberg / Brady Gardiner) reported trading round 11 pick; round 25 pick to team 12 (Paul Swydan) for 487 Derek Jeter; round 28 pick.

Team 2 (Jeff Erickson) drafted 495 KC SS Alcides Escobar

Team 12 (Paul Swydan) drafted 80 Bal P Chris Tillman (with team 21's pick)
Team 7 (Michael Murray / Joe MacDonald) drafted 1471 Flo 2B Omar Infante
Team 17 (Marc Normandin) drafted 1612 SF OF Cody Ross
Team 15 (Jeff Angus / Grant Sterling) drafted 581 Det OF Magglio Ordonez
Team 19 (Matthew Pouliot) drafted 1046 NYN P R.A. Dickey

Team 3 (King Kaufman & Rob Granick) drafted 1604 ChN OF Marlon Byrd
Team 23 (John Erhardt / Brandon Warne) drafted 76 Tex P Derek Holland
Team 20 (David Laurila) drafted 1066 Atl P Jair Jurrjens
Team 14 (Matthew Leach) drafted 1227 ChN SR Carlos Marmol
Team 5 (Jeffrey Ma) drafted 448 Min 2B Tsuyoshi Nishioka
Team 24 (Jay Jaffe) drafted 1367 StL C Yadier Molina
Team 13 (Casey Stern) drafted 7 Min P Carl Pavano
Team 16 (Jeff Passan & Mark Pesavento) drafted 1052 Flo P Javier Vazquez
Team 18 (Brent Gambill) drafted 1599 Hou OF Carlos Lee
Team 9 (Todd Zola) drafted 491 Det SS Jhonny Peralta
Team 1 (Geoff Young) drafted 334 Oak C Kurt Suzuki
Team 22 (Ben Murphy / Ian Lefkowitz) drafted 405 TB 1B Dan Johnson

Round 12:
Team 1 (Geoff Young) drafted 1253 LA SR Hong-Chih Kuo (with team 8's pick)
Team 6 (Al Melchior) drafted 502 TB SS Reid Brignac
Team 10 (Sky Kalkman) drafted 563 Bos OF J.D. Drew
 

Feb 22:  Team 10 (Sky Kalkman) reported trading 1430 Aubrey Huff; round 20 pick to team 4 (Nate Stephens) for round 12 pick; round 16 pick.

Team 11 (Rob McQuown / Brian Joseph) drafted 36 Min P Scott Baker
Team 10 (Sky Kalkman) drafted 44 Ana P Joel Pineiro (with team 4's pick)
Team 12 (Paul Swydan) drafted 552 Sea OF Franklin Gutierrez
Team 2 (Jeff Erickson) drafted 1516 StL 3B David Freese
Team 21 (Jordan Greenberg / Brady Gardiner) drafted 580 Oak OF David Dejesus
Team 7 (Michael Murray / Joe MacDonald) drafted 42 Min P Kevin Slowey
Team 17 (Marc Normandin) drafted 1434 Flo 1B Gaby Sanchez
Team 15 (Jeff Angus / Grant Sterling) drafted 343 NYA C Russell Martin
Team 19 (Matthew Pouliot) drafted 1503 Col 3B Jose Lopez
Team 3 (King Kaufman & Rob Granick) drafted 1019 NYN P Mike Pelfrey
Team 23 (John Erhardt / Brandon Warne) drafted 575 Oak OF Josh Willingham
Team 20 (David Laurila) drafted 1010 Cin P Bronson Arroyo
Team 14 (Matthew Leach) drafted 1513 Hou 3B Chris Johnson
Team 5 (Jeffrey Ma) drafted 558 Min OF Jason Kubel
Team 24 (Jay Jaffe) drafted 488 Bos SS Marco Scutaro
Team 13 (Casey Stern) drafted 1033 Atl P Derek Lowe
Team 16 (Jeff Passan & Mark Pesavento) drafted 1441 Col 1B Todd Helton
Team 18 (Brent Gambill) drafted 208 Bos SR Daniel Bard
Team 9 (Todd Zola) drafted 653 Bal OF Vladimir Guerrero
Team 1 (Geoff Young) drafted 1243 SD SR Mike Adams
Team 22 (Ben Murphy / Ian Lefkowitz) drafted 579 Det OF Ryan Raburn

Round 13:
Team 11 (Rob McQuown / Brian Joseph) drafted 120 Oak P Josh Outman (with team 8's pick)
Team 6 (Al Melchior) drafted 1616 Was OF Nyjer Morgan
Team 10 (Sky Kalkman) drafted 1068 SD P Aaron Harang
Team 11 (Rob McQuown / Brian Joseph) drafted 404 Tex 1B Mitch Moreland
Team 4 (Nate Stephens) drafted 236 ChA SR Matt Thornton
Team 12 (Paul Swydan) drafted 401 Min 1B Jim Thome
Team 2 (Jeff Erickson) drafted 1086 SD P Tim Stauffer
Team 21 (Jordan Greenberg / Brady Gardiner) drafted 227 NYA SR Rafael Soriano
Team 7 (Michael Murray / Joe MacDonald) drafted 1431 Pit 1B Garrett Jones
Team 17 (Marc Normandin) drafted 1507 LA 3B Casey Blake
Team 15 (Jeff Angus / Grant Sterling) drafted 1626 ChN OF Kosuke Fukudome

The draft is in progress at the Scoresheet site and comments on the BP Kings draft or questions about your draft are always welcome here.

This week, the focus will be on outfielders and platooning in general, starting with a player Team 11 almost drafted as a specific example... Seth Smith.  It would be easy to blame the Chooch-loving co-manager on Team 11, Brian Joseph, but despite the way PECOTA turned out for Smith, yours truly really thought he'd drop another full round and Carlos Ruiz seemed like a step ahead of the other available catchers.  Instead of Seth Smith dropping, Nate Stephens instantly (as defined by the pace of a Scoresheet draft... so about 80 minutes later) dashed those hopes, snatching him up with the next pick. 

As some may recall, Smith has been on the radar of Value Picks: Outfielders since the column began, with a clear “buy” advisory last June when he appeared to be getting a full-time gig: “Some moves are obvious, and when a good hitter gets a more-or-less full-time job in Colorado, well, that's the sort of acquisition which needs to be done at Blackberry speed.”  If he is valuable in fantasy, he's even more valuable in Scoresheet, as the lack of speed doesn't hurt as much and the lopsided platoon splits make him a potentially devastating force against right-handed pitching.  For comparison purposes, another PECOTA+range list, this time with stolen base and caught-stealing runs added for outfielders:

Top 72 Outfielders

OF

AVG

OBP

SLG

R/G

vsR

vsL

Carlos Gonzalez

2.12

.314

.360

.539

7.1

7.4

6.3

Josh Hamilton

2.13

.309

.368

.523

6.9

7.5

5.7

Matt Holliday

2.09

.307

.385

.499

6.9

6.8

7.2

Ryan Braun

2.06

.296

.357

.527

6.7

6.5

7.4

Nelson Cruz

2.09

.283

.351

.522

6.4

6.4

6.5

Seth Smith

2.09

.287

.362

.494

6.2

6.7

4.6

Carlos Beltran

2.16

.285

.375

.456

6.0

5.8

6.6

Jayson Werth

2.10

.272

.367

.474

6.0

5.7

6.9

Justin Upton

2.11

.279

.355

.479

5.9

5.5

7.1

Curtis Granderson

2.18

.278

.350

.481

5.9

6.7

3.9

Shin-Soo Choo

2.10

.280

.372

.444

5.8

6.4

4.4

Dexter Fowler

2.14

.291

.369

.440

5.8

5.6

6.1

Carl Crawford

2.12

.298

.349

.444

5.7

6.4

4.2

Andrew McCutchen

2.14

.291

.364

.436

5.7

5.4

6.6

Grady Sizemore

2.16

.269

.364

.451

5.7

6.2

4.3

Shane Victorino

2.18

.294

.353

.444

5.7

5.3

6.6

Andre Ethier

2.07

.278

.356

.461

5.7

6.6

3.6

Chris Young

2.18

.270

.345

.473

5.6

5.3

6.7

Jay Bruce

2.11

.274

.338

.483

5.6

5.9

5.0

Jose Bautista

2.07

.248

.345

.488

5.6

5.5

5.8

Marlon Byrd

2.15

.299

.354

.443

5.6

5.3

6.2

Nick Swisher

2.09

.256

.357

.467

5.6

5.5

5.7

Matt Kemp

2.13

.287

.341

.460

5.6

5.1

6.8

Jason Heyward

2.08

.278

.364

.438

5.5

6.0

4.4

Adam Jones

2.19

.295

.338

.458

5.5

5.7

5.1

Michael Stanton

2.09

.252

.330

.498

5.4

5.5

5.4

Nick Markakis

2.07

.287

.357

.436

5.4

5.7

4.9

Ryan Spilborghs

2.08

.283

.355

.440

5.4

5.3

5.8

Carlos Quentin

2.04

.248

.346

.474

5.4

5.4

5.5

Alex Rios

2.15

.284

.335

.451

5.4

5.3

5.6

Alfonso Soriano

2.08

.266

.325

.479

5.3

5.2

5.8

Ryan Raburn

2.11

.274

.338

.458

5.3

4.9

6.4

Corey Hart

2.06

.269

.328

.469

5.3

5.1

5.8

Manny Ramirez

1.98

.251

.362

.439

5.3

5.1

5.8

John Bowker

2.07

.268

.340

.455

5.3

5.6

4.2

Colby Rasmus

2.18

.275

.348

.437

5.3

5.8

3.9

Torii Hunter

2.16

.279

.343

.441

5.3

5.1

5.6

J.D. Drew

2.07

.255

.360

.436

5.2

5.7

4.0

Hunter Pence

2.10

.279

.327

.457

5.2

5.0

5.7

Denard Span

2.16

.297

.367

.391

5.2

5.2

5.0

Brandon Allen

2.07

.248

.338

.461

5.2

5.6

4.0

David Murphy

2.10

.278

.340

.433

5.1

5.6

3.9

Luke Scott

2.02

.252

.334

.462

5.1

5.4

4.3

Magglio Ordonez

2.03

.284

.350

.421

5.1

4.6

6.5

Mike Morse

2.09

.276

.335

.443

5.1

4.8

5.8

Jacoby Ellsbury

2.13

.293

.347

.392

5.1

5.2

4.6

Chris Carter

2.08

.243

.333

.462

5.1

5.4

4.1

Josh Willingham

2.07

.249

.356

.426

5.0

4.8

5.8

Mike Cameron

2.18

.258

.343

.433

5.0

4.6

6.4

Angel Pagan

2.16

.288

.340

.409

5.0

5.1

4.7

Andres Torres

2.15

.266

.334

.429

5.0

5.0

4.9

Jason Bay

2.03

.246

.347

.429

5.0

4.7

5.6

Brett Gardner

2.13

.272

.366

.375

5.0

5.2

4.3

Matt Joyce

2.07

.241

.346

.435

4.9

5.4

3.6

Logan Morrison

2.03

.266

.363

.399

4.9

5.1

4.4

Kosuke Fukudome

2.10

.262

.367

.397

4.9

5.2

3.7

Allen Craig

2.07

.270

.328

.438

4.9

4.7

5.3

Nate McLouth

2.13

.255

.343

.418

4.9

5.4

3.7

Chris Coghlan

2.07

.279

.351

.394

4.8

5.1

4.1

Rajai Davis

2.17

.287

.330

.396

4.8

4.6

5.4

Domonic Brown

2.08

.266

.325

.433

4.8

5.2

3.7

Cody Ross

2.12

.269

.322

.440

4.8

4.4

6.0

Sean Rodriguez

2.11

.246

.325

.443

4.8

4.5

5.6

Ben Francisco

2.10

.265

.328

.427

4.8

4.6

5.4

Nolan Reimold

2.07

.254

.338

.421

4.8

4.6

5.3

Ben Zobrist

2.09

.250

.352

.402

4.8

4.6

5.1

Aubrey Huff

2.05

.259

.333

.427

4.8

5.0

4.1

Coco Crisp

2.17

.276

.340

.390

4.8

4.6

5.1

Chris Heisey

2.11

.266

.326

.425

4.8

4.9

4.6

B.J. Upton

2.16

.255

.343

.400

4.8

4.6

5.2

Chris Dickerson

2.12

.259

.348

.396

4.8

5.1

3.8

Drew Stubbs

2.18

.265

.335

.403

4.7

4.6

5.2

These are the outfielders rated in comparison to average corner outfielders (with lesser defensive impact per range rating in the corners than in center field).  It can be seen that Seth Smith is not only the sixth-best outfielder, due to his above-average range rating (2.09) and Coors-aided PECOTA (.283/.358/.490), but only Hamilton, Gonzalez, and Holliday better him against right-handed pitching!

This is a good time to digress and discuss the added value platoons have in Scoresheet baseball.  In MLB, teams have eight or nine starting position players, 12 pitchers, and four or five bench players.  Generally speaking, that boils down to a backup catcher, utility infielder, fourth outfielder, and one or two “discretionary” players to round out the 25-man active roster, depending upon the whims of the manager.  With 30 roster spots, Scoresheet managers get an extra five “discretionary” players, in addition to having the automatic backup plan of the game playing a “AAA” player at a position if the bench runs out, a luxury managers do not have in MLB.  Without much strain, a manager can run three platoons in Scoresheet and not really notice.  And some teams can thrive with up to five. Frankly, platoons work much better in Scoresheet than in actual baseball, as opposing managers won't be there to “Dick Howser” platoon arrangements into bad late-inning situations, such as Cliff Johnson facing Steve Farr.   And the potential gain is very large. 

Back to our hero, Seth Smith... Consider that Smith is projected at just 4.6 runs/game when facing lefties, so anyone at 5.1 or more represents a substantial increase in production (more than 10 percent).  These outfielders–none on the top 72 list–all meet or exceed that level: Matt Diaz (6.0), Juan Rivera (5.6), Michael Cuddyer (5.6), Franklin Gutierrez (5.4–very defense-aided, even in a side field), Nick Evans (5.4), Mark DeRosa (5.3), Darnell McDonald (5.3), Delmon Young (5.2), Jonny Gomes (5.1), Carlos Lee (5.1).  While most of these guys will obviously be gone, some of this ilk will be available very late in drafts.

Speaking of being available late in drafts, Seth Smith was listed 37th on the William Burke Scoresheet player ranker among National League outfielders (he averaged 26th on the ballots which listed him, but was unnamed on 14 of 27 ballots).  In two NL drafts currently proceeding, he's gone as the last pick in the 14th round (13 keepers) and the first pick in the 12th round (10 keepers).  He went 26th among NL outfielders in the Mock Draft.  And Smith is just an example of an overlooked lefty platoon player.  Garrett Jones, as lousy as he was in 2010, was just taken in the 'Kings league.  Why?  He has an enormous platoon split (and he can play two positions).  That means that even with a PECOTA that seems bad enough to be career-threatening (.257/.315/.429), he can have value.  His 4.8 R/G vs RHP comes in ahead of stars like Jason Bay (4.7), Magglio Ordonez (4.6), and Mike Cameron (4.6).  Not that he's better than these guys–there's a cost to using another roster spot on a platoon-mate, of course–but in most leagues, he should be around long after Bay and Ordonez are gone.

Rob McQuown is an author of Baseball Prospectus. 
Click here to see Rob's other articles. You can contact Rob by clicking here

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