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February 18, 2011

Fantasy Focus

Shortstop Rankings

by Marc Normandin

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These are the shortstop fantasy rankings for 2011. Check out our previous first base, second base, and third base installments.

Like last year, the fantasy rankings are broken into tiers. Generally speaking, five-star players should be worthwhile in five categories and have an auction dollar value of $30 or more in your standard, mixed leagues. Four-star players should be worth at least $20 and useful in four categories, three-stars $10 and up, two-stars are more of your single-digit buys that you hope fill a hole or return some bargain value, and one-star players are, most likely, roster filler in the deepest leagues that you hope can be worth the buck you throw down on them.

This year we are listing stats like we have in the past (plate appearances, average, R, RBI, SB and HR projections from PECOTA) but are also including dollar value estimates produced by the Player Forecast Manager. In order to make these columns fit into the tables, I had to shorten them: "2L-$" is for mixed leagues, and "1L-$" is for AL- or NL-only leagues, depending on the player. The dollar values may not match up perfectly with the tiers, but those are just cases of PECOTA and I disagreeing on a player.

For reference, the dollar values were created with the PFM using standard 5x5 roto scoring, 23-player rosters--broken down as C (2) 1B (1) 2B (1) 3B (1) SS (1) CI (1) MI (1) OF (5) Util (1) P (9)--and $180 of the $260 budget allocated for hitters and $1 minimum salaries. A minimum of 20 games needed to be played at a position in the previous season to qualify (though I snuck a few brand new players likely to qualify in). If your league uses different settings, be sure to plug them into the PFM to see what kind of differences in dollar value we are talking about--I set these to be as close to standard roster construction as possible.

Five Star

Player

Team

PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

2L-$

1L-$

Hanley Ramirez

FLO

674

95

22

91

35

.304

$42

$37

Troy Tulowitzki

COL

600

86

25

91

12

.302

$27

$27

Ramirez is the only player who keeps Albert Pujols from being the unquestionable first pick (or most expensive player in an auction). Of course, that's assuming he bounces back in 2011 to his pre-2010 production. If he can avoid missing 20 games and posts the stats above, that won't be difficult for him to do. Troy Tulowitzki had the same value in 2010 that is projected above. The difference, of course, is that Tulowitzki missed 40 games in 2010 and dealt with a broken wrist. A fully operational Tulo is a dangerous thing for National League pitching, and can produce something worthy of the five-star designation.

Four Star

Player

Team

PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

2L-$

1L-$

Jose Reyes

NYN

601

71

8

65

42

.276

$20

$28

This may be the saddest four-star tier in the entire series. The difference between Jose Reyes and the three-star shortstops behind him is about 25 stolen bases--if his leg problems persist, he won't earn this slot, though as Jay Jaffe pointed out the other day, sometimes the Reyes you know is better than the Reyes you don't.

Three Star

Player

Team

PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

2L-$

1L-$

Derek Jeter

NYA

620

73

10

60

16

.282

$9

$18

Alexei Ramirez

CHA

600

71

19

72

14

.275

$12

$20

Stephen Drew

ARI

650

81

16

83

7

.275

$14

$19

Starlin Castro

CHN

650

73

4

66

17

.286

$10

$19

Jimmy Rollins

PHI

600

70

15

70

29

.257

$15

$23

Tsuyoshi Nishioka

MIN

650

88

10

61

19

.284

$15

$21

Derek Jeter had his worst season ever, but thanks to a combination of high standards to measure against and his playing the least productive offensive position on the diamond that doesn't require extensive padding, he still merited a three-star rating. If he bounces back a little at the plate, he'll match or exceed that value, but a year just like 2010--surrounded by an impressive Yankee lineup--would do the trick as well.

Alexei Ramirez may have been the most productive offensive shortstop in the American League last year, which is a lot like being the most talented member of Nickelback. If Ramirez were to consistently combine his occasional patience with his power, I would be much more excited about his benefitting from the Adam Dunn era in Chicago. At least he doesn't have to rely on Mark Kotsay anymore.

Stephen Drew is one of those players people just don't like very much (why this trait seems to run in the Drew family, I will never understand), so chances are good you can snag him later or for less money than he will be worth. PECOTA is pretty into him this year, which gives you even more reason to hop on board the SS Drew.

Starlin Castro is my shining beacon of hope in what is an otherwise dark and dreary stretch of shortstop hell. I just want to draw little hearts all over the page to explain how I feel about him and his potential, but I'll try to control myself. As far as 2011 is concerned, though, he's still a three-star kind of shortstop. He doesn't have much power yet (hey, give him a break--how many homers did you hit when you were 20 years old?), but he should hit .300 or better and steal some bases.

Which is more than you can say for Jimmy Rollins. PECOTA and Bill Baer dig Rollins in 2011, but I'm not quite convinced. I've relented enough to include him in the three-star category--even if he fancies his Willie Mays Hayes alter-ego, J-Roll, over what he is actually capable of doing, he may have enough speed to be useful in fantasy. The problem is that you will probably have to pay far more than he is worth to get him at auction, because he is a name that fans (and analysts) are still willing to take risks on. To summarize: nothankyou.jpg.

I'm going to be honest here--I don't know much about Nishioka. PECOTA likes him (and has done pretty well with Japanese players who come to major leagues, or even American players who go to Japan and come back to the major leagues). If he can steal some bases and hit for some power in a lineup as good as Minnesota's, he'll outperform two-thirds of this list without even trying. Craig Brown will have much more on Nishioka next week, so keep an eye out for that.

Two Star

Player

Team

PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

2L-$

1L-$

Elvis Andrus

TEX

650

69

4

53

37

.267

$12

$22

Juan Uribe

LAN

675

76

21

80

4

.249

$8

$15

Yunel Escobar

TOR

650

78

12

66

7

.281

$8

$16

Alcides Escobar

KCA

620

66

4

58

25

.272

$7

$18

Ian Desmond

WAS

575

64

12

63

16

.263

$5

$16

Miguel Tejada

SFN

644

70

11

66

4

.269

$3

$13

Rafael Furcal

LAN

519

60

6

50

18

.273

$1

$14

Jed Lowrie

BOS

451

53

10

47

2

.245

-$10

$7

If Elvis Andrus hits four homers in 2011, it will be four more than he hit in 2010. He's probably going to be a solid hitter at some point (at least for the position), but I would like to see it happen before I go out of my way to pick him ahead of the few capable shortstops in the league. Juan Uribe something something homers, [fat joke]. I miss the old Yunel Escobar. That guy was cool. He hit some homers, hit for average, and had enough upside to be a three-star player.

Alcides Escobar should steal bases under Ned Yost, now that he has escaped Ken Macha, terrible baserunning manager extraordinaire. Whether he hits is more up for debate, but that's why he's ranked where he is. Ian Desmond matched his weighted-mean forecast in 2010, and with a little bit of growth, could do the same this season. He's not a great fantasy shortstop, but he's a good one to wait on if you've missed out on filling the position until now.

Miguel Tejada's saving grace at this point may be his shortstop eligibility. I think he still has a little bit left in the tank, though not enough to get him out of this tier. Rafael Furcal is in the two-star tier mostly because he has these occasional flashes of power that make us all forget he's a slap-hitting shortstop who steals bases. I get the sense this is a ranking I will regret, though, so if you're similarly on the fence, feel free to drop him further. Jed Lowrie should get lots of playing time in Boston, and has a chance of winning the shortstop job outright before too long. He's better than his PECOTA forecast, and his lack of a clear job is the one thing keeping him out of the three-star category.

One Star

Player

Team

PA

R

HR

RBI

SB

AVG

2L-$

1L-$

Ryan Theriot

SLN

600

63

0

43

20

.273

$0

$14

Erick Aybar

ANA

596

60

3

51

19

.258

$0

$14

Jason Bartlett

SDN

560

61

4

49

19

.263

$0

$14

Asdrubal Cabrera

CLE

565

64

6

55

12

.274

$1

$13

Clint Barmes

HOU

600

64

13

64

10

.241

$1

$12

Cliff Pennington

OAK

500

52

3

38

22

.244

-$6

$12

Alexi Casilla

MIN

530

54

1

40

20

.255

-$5

$12

Jhonny Peralta

DET

600

68

13

63

2

.255

$0

$12

Yuniesky Betancourt

MIL

585

62

11

64

5

.259

$0

$11

J.J. Hardy

BAL

500

58

14

58

2

.262

-$3

$11

Orlando Cabrera

CLE

520

53

3

44

11

.259

-$7

$10

Ronny Cedeno

PIT

500

52

8

51

9

.251

-$6

$9

Reid Brignac

TBA

500

51

9

50

6

.237

-$9

$8

Alex Gonzalez

ATL

500

53

12

56

2

.241

-$7

$7

Marco Scutaro

BOS

432

48

4

37

5

.260

-$13

$7

Jack Wilson

SEA

450

44

2

37

4

.250

-$16

$5

Edgar Renteria

CIN

375

41

5

35

5

.266

-$15

$5

Jason Donald

CLE

378

39

5

35

5

.235

-$18

$5

Brendan Ryan

SEA

344

34

2

27

9

.243

-$21

$5

Paul Janish

CIN

458

48

7

41

3

.238

-$14

$4

Nick Punto

SLN

405

39

0

25

12

.232

-$20

$3

Wilson Valdez

PHI

335

34

2

27

6

.258

-$21

$3

Jamey Carroll

LAN

366

38

0

24

7

.257

-$21

$3

Jerry Hairston

WAS

275

29

5

27

6

.247

-$22

$2

Cesar Izturis

BAL

200

19

1

15

5

.248

-$31

$2

Felipe Lopez

TBA

151

17

2

13

3

.257

-$33

$1

Brandon Wood

ANA

150

16

5

17

1

.230

-$33

$1

Ramiro Pena

NYA

146

14

1

12

3

.241

-$35

$1

Jason Bartlett isn't going to recover his stroke by moving to Petco Park. Asdrubal Cabrera has the potential to be much, much better than this, but he's never played a full season, and has as much disappointment in his career stats as he has quality. Peralta probably shouldn't be rostered in mixed leagues, though shortstop eligibility in an AL-only makes him useful. Even in leagues that don't count on-base percentage, Yuniesky Betancourt is a disappointment. A solid NL-only pick, but he's only useful when compared to the names that come after him in this table.

There was a time when I liked watching James Hardy hit, but those days seem to be very far away. Orlando Cabrera could be a decent AL-only pick since he will be eligible at short and second, giving him some MI status at a low price. Marco Scutaro would be higher than this, but, like teammate Jed Lowrie, the playing time situation just isn't clear enough for me to recommend either more heartily than I have. If Paul Janish plays most of the time at short and hits like he did in 2010, he is actually pretty decent. PECOTA thinks that's a long shot, but his multi-position eligibility gives him a reason to be rostered in NL-only. I hope I never have to play Cesar Izturis as my starting shortstop in an AL-only league again, and given their acquisition of Hardy, it seems like Baltimore is having the same thought.

14 comments have been left for this article. (Click to hide comments)

BP Comment Quick Links

rotoman21

Marc, any way these lists can be split into NL only/AL only?

Feb 18, 2011 10:20 AM
rating: -1
 
RBIGuy

Regarding Jose Reyes, his injuries last year were a thyroid imbalance and an oblique strain IIRC. While the latter could certainly affect his SB numbers if it recurs, I wouldn't characterize either as 'leg problems'.

Feb 18, 2011 10:48 AM
rating: 1
 
pobothecat

" Juan Uribe something something homers, [fat joke]." (Jim Rome voice:) Hilarious.

Also ... free Asdrooble.

Feb 18, 2011 12:27 PM
rating: 1
 
flyingdutchman

Huge miss by PECOTA on Jeter's runs. Kind of ridiculous, actually. 73 runs? Why? He had a .340/.370 OBP/SLG last year, and he scored 111 runs. So does PECOTA just automatically assume a that a 37-year old future HOFer that keeps himself in great shape is going to both never bounce back and miss a month and a half of the season? I guess so, as it says 620 PA.

The Yankees scored 859 runs last year and 915 the year before. How many does PECOTA have them for this year, 720? In 2008 the Yankee offense had, for them, a down year, scoring 789 runs, a little more than league average, and Jeter scored 88 of them with a "down" year of his own (300/363/408 in 668 PA). Jeter will lead off for the Yankees this season, and if he scores 73 runs it will be because the Yankees have a worse than average offense (not going to happen) or basically because he gets hurt AND continues to hit as badly as he hit last year. I don't know, it just seems kinda implausible. Guys like Jeter are probably less likely to sustain an injury, if anything.

I realize I am arguing with an algorithm here and, as everyone knows, you can't win that argument, since algorithms are so damned stubborn. That being said, since it's impossible to invent a scenario where Jeter bounces back and scores anywhere near 73 runs, you should probably gone with "If he bounces back a little at the plate, he'll exceed that value...".

Feb 18, 2011 12:39 PM
rating: 2
 
Marc Normandin

He's in three star instead of two stars because of the lineup he is in.

Feb 18, 2011 13:06 PM
rating: 0
 
Ogremace

And yet his numbers are more in line with the 3-stars even though they're conservative for his environment. The only thing he really lacks is power and he's not terrible for that.

I can see him in either tier, but it's not really a stretch that he's in the 3's.

Feb 18, 2011 16:26 PM
rating: 0
 
flyingdutchman

Yeah, I don't mind that he's a 3-star SS (though I'd lean toward 4 stars). My issue isn't with your ranking directly, but with the system on which you're partially basing that ranking. It doesn't make sense that Derek Jeter will come to the plate 620 times this year, hit .282, and score 73 runs. That's completely illogical. If his OPS+ is anything like 100, which it probably will be, he's going to score his 90-100 runs.

Feb 18, 2011 18:18 PM
rating: 0
 
JoshC77

Relax my friend....then take a look at PECOTA projections across the board...offensive numbers are depressed across the board. It isn't just Jeter, it is everyone...

Apparently PECOTA thinks this will be "Year of the Pitcher Part 2"

Feb 19, 2011 07:22 AM
rating: 0
 
Nathan

Agreed. Another issue I have with PECOTA is the quite restricted range of probabilities for counting stats. I can believe an algorithm when it says Jeter is in for a nosedive. Maybe it knows something we don't; that's what it's for after all. But I have a slightly harder time believing that there's an 80% chance of Jeter scoring between 60 and 88 runs. Is it really *that* certain that the Yankees' offense will collapse? The range seems narrow.

Apr 03, 2011 05:47 AM
rating: 0
 
David Sullivan

Why so down on Erick Aybar? He is still young enough to have a little positive projection in him, yes? And perhaps his disappointing 2010 could have been at least in part related to his injuries?

Or am I just wishing it were so because he's my keeper?

Feb 18, 2011 20:48 PM
rating: 0
 
Jack Thomas

Marc, I have a basic question about the PECOTA projections you used in the rankings. They are slightly different form the spreadsheet I downloaded on 2/07. For example, I have Hanley Ramirez as 674 PA/95 R/23 HR/91 RBI/35 SB/.303 BA & Tulowitzki at 581 PA/86 R/25 HR/89 RBI/11 SB/301 BA. Have you tweaked or these a different version of PECOTA? This is true of all the position rankings (1B, 2B, 3B & SS.)
Thanks,

Feb 19, 2011 13:33 PM
rating: 0
 
Marc Normandin

These are the depth charts PECOTA projections, which have been updated for playing time. That first spreadsheet is not adjusted for playing time.

Feb 20, 2011 09:15 AM
rating: 0
 
amazin_mess

Flame away all you want, but PECOTA really is questionable at best.

Feb 19, 2011 18:08 PM
rating: -1
 
sldeck

This is the first forecast for Nishioka that I've seen. He wasn't on the first release of PECOTA and doesn't appear to have a PECOTA card. Where can we find a link for him?

Feb 21, 2011 17:35 PM
rating: 0
 
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