As promised, here is a combined list of the outfielder rankings. Players are still loosely ordered within the tiers via my personal preference, so if you're that excited for someone I ranked below someone else, feel free to move them around on your personal rankings. The values for players within tiers are very, very close—that's the entire point of the exercise—and should be used contextually within your own league. If you think I'm overrating steals against power (or vice versa) and you need one or the other in your own league, ignore the stat you don't need and focus on the one you do. They do different things, but their values are close.
You can see the left, right and center field rankings individually, which will also show you my explanations for why these players are ranked where. If the rankings don't mesh up perfectly with the individual ones, there are three possible reasons for it. The first is that I moved some people around even within the individual positions, such as Adam Dunn, Josh Hamilton and Carlos Quentin. The second is that this is the Final Word on outfielders, so any internal battles regarding loosely ordering players I had were resolved in time for this to be published. The third possibility, which I'm sure will be pointed out, is that I messed up, but hopefully by including #2 I can circumvent those comments. Seriously though, "loosely ordered" is the key phrase of the day with these. Pay more attention to the tiers than the rankings within them.
Five Stars Player PA AVG/OBP/SLG R HR RBI SB Matt Kemp 662 .302/.354/.487 89 22 81 28 Carl Crawford 662 .298/.354/.458 91 14 72 45 Ryan Braun 684 .306/.373/.583 104 38 110 18 Grady Sizemore 678 .279/.389/.502 94 28 78 23 Justin Upton 684 .287/.372/.518 94 27 89 15 Four Stars Player PA AVG/OBP/SLG R HR RBI SB Matt Holliday 667 .303/.391/.506 91 23 102 13 B.J. Upton 633 .279/.370/.452 83 20 69 37 Andrew McCutchen 678 .281/.363/.439 88 16 64 25 Curtis Granderson 598 .273/.358/.503 89 25 61 14 Jacoby Ellsbury 533 .301/.358/.430 78 8 47 45 Carlos Beltran 623 .278/.381/.485 82 23 84 18 Nick Markakis 684 .305/.378/.492 92 23 92 9 Hunter Pence 633 .301/.362/.513 78 25 83 12 Nelson Cruz 548 .272/.356/.525 72 29 81 14 Jay Bruce 598 .276/.347/.520 81 29 82 7 Ben Zobrist 578 .269/.380/.484 78 23 67 14 Carlos Lee 608 .307/.362/.512 70 26 106 6 Adam Lind 556 .279/.345/.494 82 29 97 2 Manny Ramirez 556 .270/.378/.452 65 18 70 1 Denard Span 678 .295/.378/.421 92 9 64 24 Shin-Soo Choo 646 .279/.388/.452 83 16 78 14 Andre Ethier 646 .283/.366/.487 77 24 85 4 Bobby Abreu 623 .279/.377/.446 82 17 76 16 Jayson Werth 614 .269/.377/.487 84 28 84 15 Ichiro Suzuki 662 .319/.364/.415 78 8 48 21 Shane Victorino 582 .296/.360/.458 83 12 52 21 Nate McLouth 662 .277/.370/.479 102 23 80 23 Adam Jones 623 .295/.350/.509 93 24 85 14 Nyjer Morgan 598 .288/.347/.381 73 4 40 34 Michael Bourn 678 .276/.346/.390 95 7 38 47 Dexter Fowler 598 .283/.382/.444 82 8 49 23 Torii Hunter 556 .283/.351/.494 72 24 75 16 Adam Dunn 630 .246/.384/.487 75 31 90 2 Travis Snider 553 .251/.333/.457 68 22 64 3 Jason Bay 630 .258/.372/.471 88 26 89 9 Josh Hamilton 567 .294/.366/.532 77 27 91 7 Carlos Quentin 570 .273/.378/.519 84 30 90 4 Rajai Davis 551 .284/.341/.415 68 7 51 41 Three Stars Player PA AVG/OBP/SLG R HR RBI SB Carlos Gonzalez 428 .280/.340/.475 69 16 69 14 Franklin Gutierrez 582 .276/.338/.457 82 21 70 14 Corey Hart 563 .274/.339/.476 68 20 71 16 Alex Rios 650 .275/.333/.456 80 20 69 18 Brad Hawpe 614 .274/.378/.491 77 24 87 1 J.D. Drew 457 .258/.380/.451 65 15 52 2 Jason Kubel 603 .282/.357/.488 72 23 88 2 Nick Swisher 571 .252/.381/.462 76 23 70 2 Michael Cuddyer 565 .274/.349/.467 74 20 71 5 Ryan Ludwick 578 .270/.346/.479 72 24 92 3 Cody Ross 573 .277/.344/.502 68 25 82 5 Josh Willingham 542 .256/.369/.460 65 20 68 4 Kyle Blanks 542 .258/.346/.443 69 21 79 2 Seth Smith 438 .278/.370/.469 55 13 56 6 Mike Cameron 499 .257/.351/.465 61 19 59 8 Cameron Maybin 662 .277/.370/.479 102 23 80 23 Brett Gardner 453 .272/.364/.384 78 6 38 38 Lastings Milledge 607 .278/.344/.422 66 16 62 18 Coco Crisp 467 .267/.355/.405 62 8 44 20 Nolan Reimold 528 .273/.350/.492 63 24 65 8 Juan Rivera 492 .280/.328/.465 53 19 68 2 Alfonso Soriano 492 .269/.333/.471 59 19 53 8 Chris Coghlan 638 .288/.374/.436 79 12 71 15 Juan Pierre 559 .294/.343/.382 69 4 38 34 Johnny Damon 545 .278/.362/.440 73 15 55 12 Conor Jackson 545 .283/.374/.441 71 14 70 9 Luke Scott 542 .263/.347/.473 62 24 73 1 Chris Young 582 .251/.338/.468 76 21 63 14 Daniel Murphy 542 .281/.340/.457 60 15 71 5 Raul Ibanez 528 .278/.351/.468 61 18 72 1 Julio Borbon 598 .286/.340/.399 75 9 46 28 Milton Bradley 438 .275/.395/.454 56 15 52 3 Scott Hairston 422 .255/.314/.453 49 17 51 7 Jack Cust 556 .238/.379/.469 70 27 71 2 David DeJesus 662 .282/.356/.423 82 12 68 7 Colby Rasmus 662 .253/.333/.434 89 23 65 10 Two Stars Player PA AVG/OBP/SLG R HR RBI SB Chase Headley 630 .268/.353/.438 67 17 69 7 Rick Ankiel 519 .255/.314/.456 68 22 69 4 Jeff Francoeur 598 .280/.326/.435 68 15 78 4 Elijah Dukes 563 .249/.362/.435 63 17 67 12 Matt Joyce 366 .244/.331/.447 43 14 44 5 Marlon Byrd 578 .288/.355/.441 64 14 71 6 Drew Stubbs 638 .237/.320/.360 72 10 45 28 Ryan Church 507 .271/.349/.414 55 12 61 5 Carlos Guillen 513 .270/.367/.450 63 16 63 4 Mark DeRosa 511 .272/.353/.446 70 15 65 2 Ryan Raburn 471 .269/.348/.486 69 20 64 7 Melky Cabrera 480 .273/.341/.404 50 10 53 9 Magglio Ordonez 608 .303/.376/.476 70 19 84 2 Skip Schumacher 638 .287/.349/.401 76 9 50 4 Delmon Young 528 .300/.330/.444 63 15 70 7 Ty Wigginton 354 .281/.338/.487 39 16 39 2 Nate Schierholtz 411 .287/.330/.473 48 11 46 6 Will Venable 548 .243/.312/.385 54 13 54 6 Allen Craig 373 .264/.323/.440 44 13 44 1 Chris Dickerson 433 .251/.355/.420 48 11 38 12 Matt Diaz 433 .288/.352/.424 43 9 47 8 Jeremy Hermida 373 .271/.356/.456 46 13 41 4 David Murphy 394 .278/.353/.461 47 12 48 5 Xavier Nady 334 .285/.348/.480 39 13 43 1 Jason Heyward 366 .271/.345/.447 47 10 38 5 Garrett Jones 564 .252/.320/.439 64 21 71 8 Ryan Sweeney 530 .286/.354/.424 63 11 55 7 Vernon Wells 623 .262/.320/.429 76 19 70 11 Austin Jackson 638 .262/.321/.404 70 12 60 17 Aaron Rowand 598 .277/.343/.442 68 18 66 2 Carlos Gomez 566 .257/.315/.385 71 9 50 29 Kosuke Fukudome 539 .260/.383/.394 69 9 47 6 Tony Gwynn 378 .262/.336/.345 47 2 21 11 Jordan Schafer 214 .236/.316/.391 21 4 16 4 One Star Player PA AVG/OBP/SLG R HR RBI SB Jose Bautista 598 .250/.352/.435 72 20 63 5 Felix Pie 333 .270/.326/.445 46 10 42 5 Erik Hinske 464 .239/.344/.419 54 14 50 7 Mark Teahen 548 .266/.332/.408 62 12 49 6 Gerardo Parra 338 .281/.337/.413 37 5 35 6 Ryan Spilborghs 292 .273/.359/.430 41 6 34 5 Michael Brantley 308 .277/.347/.367 46 4 33 18 Scott Podsednik 479 .275/.337/.381 54 5 36 14 Emilio Bonifacio 395 .262/.320/.345 48 2 25 14 Wladimir Balentien 300 .256/.335/.467 35 13 38 3 Micah Hoffpauir 282 .272/.321/.452 32 10 42 2
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So what is it that makes you still pick Drew over Kubel (or any of the next five guys below him, to be honest)? I appreciate that the difference here may be very fine but, on the face of it, Kubel's a no-brainer. Do you think Drew will miss less time than PECOTA predicts or that he'll produce more in his limited ABs?
Although this is the "final word," I feel like I have to ask -- any thoughts on how Desmond Jennings might fit into these rankings?
I'm particularly interested in how he might look 2-3 years down the road compared to, say, Carlos Gonzalez, Carlos Gomez, Dexter Fowler, and the Big FraGu.
Appreciate any input you can give me.
So I guess I'm wondering how much PECOTA has changed its tune -- or how much you question PECOTA -- based on Jenning's 2009 performance.