Stolen Signs

Kendall Guillemette and Harry Pavlidis discuss baseball statistics, as well as look for the stories and people behind the stats.

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Episode 19: Park Factors and Pitch Design

February 28th, 2018

When we talk about park adjusted stats, and park factors, what does all of that mean? How do we arrive at those numbers and how do we account for changes over time? We also talk about “pitch design” and how that combines analytical data and player development.


Episode 18: Making PECOTA with Jonathan Judge and Rob McQuown

February 16th, 2018

We talk with Jonathan Judge ( and Rob McQuown (, who oversee Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections ( to get some more insight into how the projections are made, what’s new this year, and of course hip hop.
Sam Miller ( asks how much we’d be willing to endure to play Major League Baseball (


Episode 17: These Are Not the Robot Umpires You’re Looking For

February 1st, 2018

We talk to Jeff Long (, Sean O’Rourke (, Wayne Boyle (, and Russell Carleton ( about their recent Pitching Week ( article about the Robot Strikezone and Robot Umpires (
New Power, Command, Stamina pitching metrics ( from Baseball Prospectus
Updating Pitch Tunnels ( – by Jeff Long, Harry Pavlidis, and Martin Alonso (
Jeff Long, Jonathan Judge ( and Harry are nominated for a SABR Analytics Conference Research Award (
The Hazards of Going on Auto-Pilot ( – by Maria Konnikova


Episode 16: Inning(s) Eaters and Aces

January 18th, 2018

Stolen Signs is back. Harry and Kendall talk about the slow offseason, collusion and ideas on how to change the economics of baseball. After a short break (14:05) they discuss new research by Duke University that looks into neurological and motor skills and how they translate to baseball production, a new smart baseball that can provide some pitch tracking and tease some new work by the stats team at Baseball Prospectus. To wrap up (32:00), a look into the state of pitching and try to talk about what an inning(s) eater is and also what an ace is.
Neuroscience Can Project Batting Lines Now ( by Eno Sarris (
Anthony DiComo’s tweet of Sandy Alderson quote (
Here’s why baseball’s economic system might be broken ( by Jeff Passan (


Episode 15: Twas the Episode Before Christmas

December 22nd, 2017

We touch on many issues of the day as we wrap up 2017 in style.
3:10 – Marlins firesale fallout – Dan LeBatard show (
17:05 – Bob Bowman forced out at MLBAM (
23:38 – Shohei Ohtani ZIPS, Steamer and PECOTA projections
35:20 – The Case for Long-Form Movement ( by Jeff Long (
51:00 – Major League Baseball’s Statcast Can Break Sabermetrics ( by Emma Baccellieri (
1:19:20 – Hall of Fame discussion – HOF Tracker (!8063&ithint=file,xlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AAAsz3uDsmqy_Vw) c/o @NotMrTibbs (
With that we bid you farewell for the year. Happy holidays to all, and we look forward to 2018.


Episode 14: Shohei Otani and Japanese Baseball with Ben Lindbergh and Kaz Yamazaki

December 7th, 2017

We talk with Ben Lindbergh and Kaz Yamazaki about the NPB posting system, differences between the mounds, balls, culture of MLB and NPB and dig a little deeper into some of the myths about Japanese pitchers coming over to MLB. We also look into the current state of the sabermetric community in Japan.
Effectively Wild Episode 1145: The Reigning-MVP Podcast ( Effectively Wild episode where Ben and Jeff Sullivan talk with Dennis Sarfate
Shohei Otani and MLB’s Japanese Fragility Myth ( from The Ringer
Shohei Otani’s life goals (
Delta Graphs (


Episode 13: Wins Above Replacement discussion with Sean Forman (bWAR), David Cameron (fWAR), Greg Matthews (openWAR), Rob McQuown and Jonathan Judge (WARP)

November 29th, 2017

We welcome Sean Forman from Baseball Reference, David Cameron from FanGraphs, Greg Matthews from openWAR, Rob McQuown and Jonathan Judge from Baseball Prospectus to the show.

With all the recent discussion about Wins Above Replacement statistics, we wanted to get people who create and maintain the statistics together to talk about how their respective stats are created and calculated. We talk about what replacement level is, positional adjustments, how to accurately portray confidence in the precision of the statistic.


Episode 12: Making Sausage and Catching Up

November 16th, 2017

Harry and Kendall look back at the World Series, discuss the Cy Young awards and the BBWAA vote has lined up with BP’s pitching metrics over the past few years.
Next up is a preview of some new pitching statistics that the Baseball Prospectus stats team is working on and why that’s proven to be a challenge. Harry gives a look into how these statistics are imagined, designed, tested, and tweaked throughout the process.


Episode 11: Unusual Paths to the Rotation and Everything Old is New Again with Jarrett Seidler

October 26th, 2017

This week Harry and Kendall talk to Jarrett Seidler from the Baseball Prospectus Prospects team about the cyclical nature of baseball in general, and analytics specifically.
Harry and Kendall also take a closer look at how pitchers end up in the bullpen and examine their route to get there. For this exercise they looked at pitchers with a debut season of > 20 IP as a reliever, and fewer starter innings than reliever innings in that year and then went on to log > 75 IP as a starter in a subsequent season, with fewer reliever than starting innings. Check out the spreadsheet (
*This Week I Learned: *
Harry – A look into research done with Kate Morrison for Ben Lindbergh’s Ringer piece about Dallas Keuchel and the Dodgers –
Kendall – Is it possible that Major League Baseball is coming to Portland? –


Episode 10: Looking back at PECOTA

October 12th, 2017

We start by talking about projection systems in general, then dive into 2017 PECOTA team projections. We look to see how adding in actual playing time affects the team totals. Then we talk about individual players that out-performed and under-performed their PECOTA projections.
This Week I Learned:
* Harry learns that “bullpenning” is a thing, sort of, maybe, kind of. (h/t Matt Trueblood (
* Kendall learns to make adjustments in parenting, just like hitters like Mike Trout have had to make adjustments to high fastballs. (h/t to Jeff Sullivan (


Episode 9: Playoff Formats and Rosters w/ Rob Arthur, Ben Diamond, Greg Matthews, and Travis Sawchik

September 28th, 2017

We sat down with Rob Arthur, Ben Diamond, Greg Matthews, and Travis Sawchik to talk about the MLB playoffs. We touched on playoff formats (past, present, and future?) and then moved on to talk about roster construction and optimization for the playoffs. After that, Harry and Kendall talk about the things they learned this week.



Episode 8: Pitcher Similarity Scores

September 22nd, 2017

This week Harry and Kendall discuss pitcher similarity scores. Where did they come from? What are they? What can they be used for? And what might they evolve into.

This week Kendall learned a little about Ted Williams, and Harry learned something from Neil deGrasse Tyson.


You can email Kendall and Harry at and follow them on Twitter @stolen_signs.


Episode 7: The Rise of the Two-Way Player

September 17th, 2017

With the news of Shohei Ohtani’s imminent posting from the NPB, this episode we talk with Sung Min Kim from the Sporting News about the posting system as well as a closer look at Ohtani. Harry and Kendall then discuss the precedence of two-way players in the Major Leagues and talk about what they’ve learned this week.
Frank HowardMLBAM Outs Above AverageHunter Greene’s future is on the moundCan Cincinnati Reds prospect Hunter Greene be this smart and this good? Yes


Episode 6: Baseball and Psychology with Dan Brooks and Russell Carleton

September 8th, 2017

This week Harry and Kendall welcome Dan Brooks from Brooks Baseball and Russell Carleton from Baseball Prospectus. We talk with Dan and Russell about how baseball relates to their professional field of study, psychology. Russell has a new book coming out, called “The Shift”, which is available for pre-order. To steal a play from Russell’s playbook, we command you to pre-order it.