As I find myself writing more and more about pitchers, pitcher injuries, and theories about preventing said pitcher injuries, I find myself returning to a few themes. First, Keith Woolner and Rany Jazayerli have the best system, bar none, that has been tested. Ignore PAP3 at your own risk. Second, we ignore pitch efficiency. When Roy Halladay can go 10 innings and not crack 100 pitches, he’s on to something.
In fact, the more I think about it, pitch efficiency seems to be a victim of the era. Just 20 years ago, the ’86 Mets–a team that I see all too often on ESPN Classic–look like a bunch of pencil-necked geeks compared to the middle-infielders of today. Serve up a fat pitch to Ozzie Smith, or better, his backup, and at worst you get a double. After a while, that can add up to significantly fewer pitches per appearance. If you’re obsessed with complete games or want to figure out a way around that LaRussian third LOOGY, getting your starter to go 10 pitches an inning is a must. I’ll talk more about efficiency soon, but let’s get to what you’re here for.
Powered by my enforced punishment beverage, mead, by order of the Office of Arrogance and Elitism, on to the injuries…
I could talk about roster/lineup/role optimization all day, which is just one of the many reasons it’s a wonder I’m married. Back in the nascent days of baseballprospectus.com, I wrote a column called Lineupectomy (a couple of which actually show up in the archives), which got its name from something we used to do at Strat tournaments–taking people’s teams and creating optimal lineups. It’s a geek thing, and as has been pointed out, not remotely the right name for the process, but it’s something I spend a lot of time doing.
There’s a question as to how much the effort matters. It’s something of a stathead truth that the difference between the optimal lineup and a reasonably constructed one is small, less than a win per year. I don’t necessarily buy that; as Chris Kahrl pointed out in BP2K1, the simulations on which that idea is based are fairly old, done on ancient technology, and it’s possible that we just haven’t been able to model it properly yet. I find it hard to believe that doing simple things like getting your OBP guys in front of your SLG guys, making the lineup less vulnerable to attack relievers, and minimizing double plays aren’t worthwhile endeavors that can add not just a few runs, but a few wins a year.
My thought process on the Yankees goes something like this: they have seven good hitters, so one of those seven ends up at the back of the line. Ideally, you’d like that to be the worst of the seven, but that’s complicated by the fact that players don’t change roles as easily as Strat cards, and the collective media and fan base is poised to make a very big deal over any radical changes. Ask Theo Epstein.
The Red Sox face some pretty soft competition, going forward. Dave Miley has had a pretty rough time since taking over in Cincinnati. And the Padres have been playing spoiler, lately, to a number of contenders. All this and much more news from Boston, Cincinnati, and San Diego in your Tuesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
The Marlins decide to pay Jeff Conine (.284/.332/.446) more than they would Kevin Millar (.283/.358/.489). The Yankees get overdue strong performances from David Wells and Bernie Williams. Jason Kendall’s still a Pirate, though probably not for much longer. These and other news and notes out of Florida, New York, and Pittsburgh in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
The National League playoff race has thinned out over the past few weeks, with the Rockies and, unfortunately, the Expos falling out of contention. Seven teams are still playing for two spots, however, which will mean plenty of meaningful baseball down the stretch. How does the remaining schedule affect the chase? As I’ve mentioned a few times, there’s no team in this race that can’t go 16-4 over three weeks, which is one of the things that makes the game great.
Check out the schedule for the week of the 15th. In the mid-week games, the Phillies and Marlins play in Philadelphia, the White Sox and Twins in Minnesota, and the Diamondbacks and Dodgers in L.A. That weekend, effectively showdown weekend, the Royals and Sox play in Chicago, the Astros and Cardinals in St. Louis, the Mariners and A’s hook up in Oakland, and the Dodgers and Giants–just one contender, but these two could be 55-95 and play a great series–are in L.A. I’m not a fan of the Wild Card, but if there’s ever going to be a week for the sport to steal the audience’s attention and get some positive focus on the tremendous excitement generated by races, it’s that week.
Eric Gagne goes from slapshots to the consecutive saves record. Dusty Baker loves Tony Womack. Ron Santo loves Dusty Baker. Kerry Robinson isn’t impressed with Mark Prior. Lou Piniella doesn’t think Japanese players should be Rookie of the Year candidates–unless they play for his team. George Steinbrenner isn’t in the mood for hugs. These and other notable quotables in The Week in Quotes.
If I hear Andy Roddick called “A-Rod” one more time, I’m probably going to puke, but it does bring forth an interesting question. Here’s this up and coming tennis star, dating a singer/actress, and what’s he get for marketing? The already-used nickname of an undermarketed baseball player. Roddick hasn’t approached the popularity or consistency of Alex Rodriguez, so attaching himself to that image helps. I’ll leave the baseball business stuff to Doug Pappas, but without the Lords of Baseball doing their anti-marketing, baseball–even on the day when the football freaks teed it up–is running a close second. Pennant races and good baseball create fans.
Powered by more of the fabulous Beringer White Merlot and my new kick-ass corkscrew, on to the injuries…
You can read Wednesday’s column for a longer discussion of the principles behind this research, but the general idea is that you have to dig deeper than just looking at seasonal stats to see what a team has going for it down the stretch. That piece addressed the quality of rotations; this one looks at the quality of bullpens. As I wrote Thursday, I orginally researched this using Adjusted Runs Prevented (ARP). I had to throw out that data, though, because using a value stat distorted the results. I went back and used Runs Responsible Average–the rate equivalent of ARP–to generate the lists below. I determined each team’s current core relievers by looking at game logs; most teams had six, but some had as few as five or as many as eight. The point is to pull out the pitchers whose performances show up in the seasonal numbers but who are no longer pitching, or pitching much, for their teams. This correction should give us a better idea of who has the best bullpens in baseball for the stretch drive.
Hideo Nomo gets bonus points for admitting he was hurt, but not as many as he would have gotten had he said something when it first started hurting. The Dodgers on the other hand are…well, I don’t want to say that word. We’ll say obfuscating, how’s that? Calling inflammation of his rotator cuff the result of fatigue is…what’s the word? Crap. Pure crap. Inflammation comes from irritation and overuse. While fatigue might have something to do with poor mechanics, calling it the cause is insulting to medheads. Frank Jobe’s legacy deserves better than the current problems in the Dodgers training room.
Sixty-three. Sixty-four. Sixty-five. Sixty-six. Sixty-seven. At last count, 67 of you kind souls let me know that Derek Jeter would be out this weekend with a strained oblique. He’ll miss the Red Sox series. Allow me to refresh your short-term memories–look at what I said on Wednesday regarding Jeter. Good thing they signed Luis Sojo, eh?
If you’re avoiding watching the Tigers, you’re missing out on some interesting baseball. Among the more interesting parts is Danny Patterson, a former Ranger that came over in the Juan Gonzalez deal and has been injured seemingly ever since. Patterson has picked up some saves, but he’s been phenomenal out of the bullpen since returning. He’s definitely one of those guys you want to have in any pen or if you’re looking at names at the end of your 2004 fantasy draft, Patterson’s isn’t a bad name to call out.
One of the best things about being involved with BP is the people you meet. Since we started doing Pizza Feeds a couple of years back, I’ve been fortunate enough to meet several hundred people who trudge their way to a Feed, all of whom have an intense interest in baseball, and all of whom are very generous with their time and support. It’s pretty common for people to hang out and talk after the main event’s over. Sometimes, someone will have an in-depth topic they want a long answer on, or they want to talk about available positions with BP or in a front office, or they want to argue with me about Derek Jeter’s defense.
The most common question I get after the end of the feed is about books. Some recurring themes come up during the evening, and one of them is often: “What skills does a general manager really need?” The question that inevitably follows is: “What books do you think a GM should read when they first get the job?” It’s a good question, so I thought I’d make some suggestions here. I’m going to stay away from baseball books, including our own, and focus instead on the first books anyone should they read if they’re going to be serious about their business. Many of these books are applicable to a number of industries, but I believe they’re particularly relevant to running a major league club. So, in no particular order:
There has never been a season when Barry Bonds was obviously the league’s best player that he did not win the MVP award. Were he to lose the award this season (he is currently leading in VORP by 17 runs over Albert Pujols) it would be his first real injustice. If Bonds has not been mistreated by MVP voters though, several stars of the past have been. Although it has been 80 years since anyone has hit like Bonds has the past few years, there have been occasions when a player has dominated his league for several years and been ill-served by the voters. The rest of this article briefly discusses a few of the more famous cases. Ted Williams’ problem was that he played in a time when it was difficult to win the award without winning the pennant, and his team finished second every year. From 1941 through 1954, Williams led the league in VORP every season that he wasn’t either in the military (five years) or hurt (1950). He won two awards: 1946, when the Red Sox finished first, and 1949, when they finished one game behind. Let’s run through a few of the more interesting losses:
Milton Bradley wants to start running more. Eric Gagne is a legitimate part of the Cy Young discussion. And Mariners keep making the Devil Rays look like a race of supermen. All this and much more news from Cleveland, Los Angeles, and Seattle in your Friday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
The Drew Henson Saga, of course, is more than that; it’s one of the most interesting stories in Prospectdom. He may not be six-year, $17 million interesting though, which is the contract the Yankees gave him to give up football. And now we’re off to the races with what is one of the most-debated topics of prospect analysis: Can plate discipline be taught? Can someone like Henson, who’s extremely strong, shorten his swing, get the bat around faster so he can make more contact? Can he learn to recognize the curve and hit it? And will that help him stop swinging at bad breaking pitches, draw some walks, and get better pitches to drive? Are humans inherently good or evil? I was the lone voice in favor of including Henson in BP’s Top 40 Prospects list, at least in the Honorable Mention section. The only thing that’s changed is that he’s had a repeat year, the highlight of which was that for a brief while we heard he was catching on and had a better approach at the plate. His defense at third is still bad. What kind of improvement would have been required for Henson to be adequate, or even considered a good prospect again?
There’s something about baseball that makes you feel a part of it. Sure, I know football is more popular because it’s easy and it’s marketed well. The thing is, football requires no commitment and just becomes a big party you go to every week, if you’re really into it.
Baseball, on the other hand, requires a certain level of personal investment. “We” is a term I often hear-–and say–when watching baseball. Greg Rakestraw always gets on me when I do SportsDesk because I start saying “We just need to get rid of Antonio Alfonseca” or “Every time Prior’s on the mound, we win.” I yell at the screen, make calls to friends, and generally agonize over a team that I have little to no effect on.
But I’m convinced I have this personal power over the team. I’m sure that you think you have it at times. I sit on the couch in front of the big screen, WGN glaring green and the little box at the top left taunting me with a Cardinals lead. I yell at umpires, scream at players, plead with Dusty, and in the end, begin watching Black Hawk Down because I just can’t take it anymore. Naturally, my powers kick in after a while, and by not watching I help the Cubs make an amazing comeback–just the kind that makes me wish I’d seen it, but like Schroedinger’s cat, it’s dead when you look. I’m sure fans of every team know that psychic surety. Come on, Baseball–market that passion.
I promised a second part to the study in which I would analyze team bullpens in the same manner, and I spent a good chunk of Wednesday doing the research and preparing the data. I used Michael Wolverton’s Adjusted Runs Prevented, and separated team bullpens into current core relievers (five or six per team) and everyone else.
Now, even as I was doing the work I kind of thought ARP might not be the best tool for the job, because it’s not a pure rate stat. It is a value metric that has performance, context and playing time components, the latter two of which make it a poor analogue for Support-Neutral Winning Percentage. Nevertheless, I went ahead with the research because I thought using ARP would still be useful while being a much simpler calculation than Runs Responsible Average, the rate stat from which ARP is derived. (Calculating RRAs for the core relievers and the others is a manual task, and no small one.)
I was wrong. The playing-time effect dominates everything, so much so that using ARP in this manner only really tells you which teams are using pitchers who they haven’t used all season. It’s a worthless data set that clouds, rather than illuminates, the issue of which teams have the best bullpens right now.
The Diamondbacks’ Brandon Webb should be a lock for Roofie of the Year, and a contender for Cy Young. The Royals add Rondell White to their All-Boy Power Lineup. The Phillies have overcome Jose Mesa’s awful season. These and other news and notes out of Arizona, Kansas City, and Philadelphia in today’s edition of Prospectus Triple Play.