Given a discrepancy between \”Pythagorean Wins\” (what you\’d expect from a team given a specific runs scored/runs allowed set) and actual wins leads to all kinds of investigation, chin-scratching, nose-picking, and navel-gazing. Some people will say a team is \”stronger\” than its actual record because it\’s underperforming the formula, and so forth. Suspects for the gap typically include: Strength of bullpen Managerial use of bullpen Clutch hitting Clutch pitching Chemistry Managerial strategies in tight games Luck This leads to interesting observations and theories (team x is 12-0 in one run games, manager Joe\’s teams consistently outperform their Pythagorean record except when they don\’t) but rarely insight. It\’s not as bad as putting a couple of stats into a blender, pressing the \”pulse\” button a couple of times, and claiming the resulting undrinkable smoothie is some kind of innovation. But it\’s still a waste of time.
Cleveland Indians pitcher Jake Westbrook recently drew attention for an outstanding seven-inning perfect relief appearance. Interestingly enough, he retired the last batter he faced his previous appearance, and the first five batters of his next apperance (en route to a complete game win over the Tigers), for a total of 27 straight batters retired. There’s that “27” again–a perfect game, albeit one “hidden” across three appearances. Following Westbrook’s accomplishment, I became curious about the idea of “hidden” perfect games–instances where a pitcher retired 27 batters in a row, but may have done it across multiple appearances; i.e. the pitcher retired the last 15 batters he faced in one start, and the first 12 batters he faced in his next start, he would have a streak of 27 batters retired, and thus have a “hidden” perfect game. Relievers could qualify as well, if they had, for example, nine straight 1-2-3 one-inning appearances.
The term “breaking out of a slump” is too literal for Austin Kearns. An inside pitch broke a bone in his forearm, apparently very close to his wrist. Kearns will fly back to Cincinnati immediately for examination by Tim Kremchek. Once decisions are made about how he’ll be treated, we’ll be able to get a better handle on how long he’ll be out. Nate Silver might get to see what Wily Mo Pena can do with extended at-bats, but for the Reds’ fetish with Ryan Freel.
The Braves weren’t able to play one man short after all, and they pushed Chipper Jones to the DL. The impetus may have actually come from Julio Franco. Franco’s inner ear infection would have left the team two men down, thus the decision to disable Jones. Chipper wasn’t happy with the decision, but will deal with it. In the long term and even the short term, this will help him.
Despite living on the West Coast since 1989, I’m still an East Coast guy, and
as such, can occasionally show some of that famous East Coast media bias. That
was evident in yesterday’s column, when I picked apart the lessons from the
weekend’s big series in New York, while neglecting the games, just as big,
that division co-favorites played 3,000 miles away in Oakland.
Just as in the Bronx, the road team out west, the team generally considered to
be the underdog of the two, came out of the weekend with a sweep. Unlike in
the other series, however, the Angels and A’s played without the apocalyptic
hype that surrounds their Eastern counterparts.
Last week I identified some of the problems with the “Fan Cost Index” developed by Team Marketing Report. One of the biggest issues, TMR’s use of average ticket prices to calculate how much a typical family of four could expect to pay to see a game, has to be addressed on a team-by-team basis. This is the first of six articles that will do so. I’m starting with the AL East. My hypothetical customers decide a few weeks in advance which game they plan to attend, then shop for tickets on MLB.com. To keep the methodology constant, I’m ignoring any special knowledge I may have about a particular stadium’s seats, seating and ticketing policies, and relying entirely on what I can find on MLB.com.
Chad Tracy could help revive the struggling Snakes. Russell Branyan returns to the Indians. Torii Hunter’s return creates a crowded situation with Lew Ford swining a hot bat for the Twins. Endy Chavez returns to cause night sweats among Expos fans. These and other news and notes in today’s Transaction Analysis.
Who are best pitchers ever, according to UERA? Are the Devil Rays just an easy target? And what are the rules surrounding Rule 5 players anyway? All this and many more questions in your Monday edition of From The Mailbag.
Dusty Baker keeps talking about pitch counts. So does Eric Wedge. The Cardinals aren’t afraid of new information. Ken Griffey Jr. thinks he’s been misrepresented by the media. And Ozzie Guillen doesn’t understand why everyone’s so concerned with Mark Prior. All this and many more quips in your Monday edition of The Week In Quotes.
Moving Scott Schoeneweis into the starting rotation has been a good move for the White Sox. With all due respect to Jermaine Dye, Marco Scutaro has been the A’s most encouraging find of the season thus far. And Jim Thome has been the only hitter carrying his weight for the Phillies this season. All this and much more news from Chicago, Oakland, and Philadelphia in your Monday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
I was on Boston’s WEEI radio just after Opening Day and was asked, in a very concerned manner, whether the Red Sox could stay with the Yankees in April given their depleted state. I’m thinking we have an answer.
The Angels may have swept Oakland, but they have some problems facing them as they head into next week. Garret Anderson continues to fight upper back problems and current treatments haven’t reduced his symptoms. A decision will be made early this week about the DL. Given the team’s outfield depth, one would think that the Angels could afford to play it safe, but that depth has been already leveraged elsewhere. Vladimir Guerrero is still dealing with pain and swelling in his right knee (his pushoff leg for batting and throwing.) Regular rest and some DH time hasn’t reduced the symptoms, worrying many in the Angels’ front office. With all the options and possibilities, Mike Scioscia has some interesting decisions in front of him. The Braves are very concerned about the hamstring of Chipper Jones. The tear is healing up, but not as quickly as Chipper is telling people. He’ll stay off the DL for now, but Bobby Cox has been told to use him as a “desperation pinch-hitter” just in case the Braves need to retro him onto the DL.
One tiresome and mundane quip columnists and pundits often trot out when this issue is foregrounded every couple of years is that Major League Baseball needs to be more like the NFL. I take this to mean crappier uniforms, roughly 12 minutes of action per game, a less meaningful regular season and inscrutable financial schema. But what the talking heads really mean is more competitive balance. Smarter people than I have cut this argument to ribbons, but I would like to point out that what passes for noble egalitarianism in the NFL is really just structural distinction. By that I mean, the NFL has a players union that’s weaker than sun-toasted Bud Light, and they play 16-game schedule, from which they award 12 playoff spots. MLB, of course, plays a 162-game slate, which much more ruthlessly divides wheat and chaff, and doles out only eight playoff spots. With those differences in mind, let’s see how the MLB would’ve fared over the last five seasons–the reputed dark age of competitive balance–had they been playing by the NFL’s rules.
The Angels overspent for Garret Anderson. The Cubs hope Matt Clement can shake his early-season struggles. The Brewers will use Junior Spivey as trade bait. These and other news and notes out of Anaheim, Chicago and Milwaukee in this edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
Today’s column was supposed to be a game report from yesterday’s Rangers/Angels tilt in Anaheim. Due to a series of events that, had they been filmed, would have been Oscar-worthy, my ticket went unused. I’m disappointed not only because I haven’t been to a game yet this year, but because I would have enjoyed the company. I was invited by Stephen Roney, who is the president of the Allan Roth chapter–the L.A. area chapter–of the Society for American Baseball Research. SABR might be one of the most misunderstood organizations in the country, associated as it is primarily with baseball’s statistics. Sabermetrics is much more than this; performance analysis is just a subset of the field, and any time spent with the historians and biographers and researchers of SABR shows you just how broad a knowledge base is represented in the group.
The Indians dodged a bullet Thursday when an MRI showed C.C. Sabathia had only some bicipital tendonitis. Sabathia is someone I’ve predicted would break down for years now, but he continues to defy me, proving once again that we still have a lot of work to do when it comes to injury prediction. The soreness in his arm doesn’t appear to be serious and that it happened while throwing a changeup is likely a red herring. While the irony of having Jeff D’Amico step in when someone is injured isn’t lost on me, Sabathia should be able to make his next start.
Kerry Wood may not have been praying for rain, but he’ll be the biggest beneficiary of Thursday’s rainout. The postponement will push his start back to Saturday, giving him two additional days of rest following his 130 pitch workload last time out. While recovery is still a poorly understood area of pitching, there are no negatives to this for Wood.
Joe Kerrigan has more work to do with Brett Myers. After missing a start to work on mechanics, Myers continued to struggle Thursday night. While I admittedly did not see the game beyond the highlights (dominated by the Gonzalez/Pratt face-off), Myers was clearly still off mechanically. His elbow was way ahead of his shoulder, much like Pedro Martinez in the middle of last season. If Myers cannot quickly correct the problem, the Phillies will have to consider some of their options in the minors.
Two weeks in, the sample sizes are still small but nearly 1/10th of the season is in the bag and some undeniable trends have emerged. The race now belongs to the quick, to those teams that spot their problems early and attacks them aggressively. As the iconic GM Branch Rickey said, “A man who isn’t alert is usually in the second division, and that’s where he belongs.” Have at it, boys.