Earl Weaver in Weaver on Strategy presented a set of guidelines for running a team. The book is the best on managerial strategies and roles I’ve come across, and the respect accorded it is well earned. Don’t play for one run unless it’ll win you the game–James Click’s series on bunting should be required reading for managers. Browsing any day’s box scores shows you examples of managers bunting early, or for no good reason at all.
Weaver’s Fourth Law, from the book: Your most precious possessions on offense are your 27 outs.
This leads to a short rant about bunts, particularly early in baseball games. The concept behind the rule runs throughout the book, though, and underlines the single biggest conflict in the game of baseball: The defense wants to get outs without giving up runs, and the offense doesn’t want to give up those outs.
The White Sox unload a Kochian albatross. The A’s wish they could do the same with half their pen. The Phillies flip their erstwhile center fielder the Byrd. These and other news and notes out of Chicago, Oakland and Philadelphia in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
Jarrod Washburn has had his share of unique injuries. A few years back, he had a minor scapular fracture, similar to the one Kurt Ainsworth suffered last season. Now, Washburn is having neck and shoulder spasms, leading some to look to the outfield and ponder Garret Anderson’s condition. It looks minor for now, but any spasm can return, so until the root cause is found there’s definitely cause for concern. The Angels have been dreadfully unhealthy so far this season, but depth and good roster construction have kept them in the AL West race.
Things are looking up in the Bronx. Mike Mussina will make his next start, feeling that his strained groin will be healed sufficiently. He will be watched closely, however, so expect him to be pulled earlier than normal. Kevin Brown is also making good progress, but some reports have been a bit ahead of reality. While Brown is tentatively listed as next Saturday’s starter, he’ll have to make it through two bullpen sessions before Joe Torre writes his name in ink instead of pencil. Even in the minors things look better. Orlando Hernandez made it through his first rehab start and will head to Triple-A for his next. He could certainly solidify the front of the bullpen as well as help his countryman, Jose Contreras.
Is Mike Sweeney the answer to the Dodgers’ offensive woes? Has Johan Santana been getting a raw deal from his bullpen this season? And do the Giants have any bargaining chips left to deal at this year’s trading deadline? All this and many more fascinating, rhetorical questions from Los Angeles, Minnesota, and San Francisco in your Monday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
"It’s pretty."
So says Sophia about Petco Park, which we both visited for the first time on
Saturday night. The park is located in downtown San Diego, and very much a part of the area. In fact, before the game
we traipsed over to Seaport Village and walked around, and the post-game
options for attendees make it possible to make a night out of a day at the
ballpark.
The most significant impression the park made on me was the size of the
outfield. Seeing it on television just doesn’t do it justice. If Petco Park
doesn’t have the most actual acreage between the infield and the fences–I
guess the really deep center field in some parks could give them more square
footage–the 400-foot distances to left-center and right-center fields make the
outfield look vast, almost as if a fourth outfielder would be needed to cover
the ground.
The way in which Petco’s huge outfield affects the game was a big topic of
conversation on Saturday. Padres GM Kevin Towers, addressing an audience of
nearly 100 BP readers before the game, referenced the park’s dimensions and
their effects on game play and team construction frequently in an hour-long
session. Towers was enthusiastic, forthright and informative, exactly what
you’d hope for from a speaker. His turn at the mike made the Ballpark Feed a
success.
Every once in a while you have a day or a week that flashes back to other, older days and weeks.
Last week, the United States and Great Britain signed a treaty pledging to protect the wreck of the Titanic, which sank beneath the waves in 1912; Roger Clemens and Mark Prior faced off in a pitching match-up that was a descendant of one in 1912; and a boob from Texas mistreated a four-year-old fan in a way that made one wish it was 1912. John McCain even had an opportunity to bolt the Republican Party last week, but apparently no one told him that Theodore Roosevelt had done so with honor back in 1912, because the Senator refused to go along with the 1912ness of things. Baseball, though, was unabashedly singing
Drayton McLane’s ominous statements about the state of the Astros. Allard Baird throws in the towel. Barry Bonds, on many and varied topics. All this and more in your Monday edition of The Week In Quotes.
The Red Sox get Trot Nixon back. The Astros misfire on the Richard Hidalgo deal. With all hands now on deck, the Expos should excise Endy Chavez. The Phillies demote Chase Utley. The Giants quietly have one of the best offenses in baseball. These and other happenings in today’s Transactions Analysis.
You’ve probably read Joe Sheehan’s nifty explanations of his AL and NL All-Star ballots. In summary, Joe’s theory is that you don’t fritter away an All-Star spot on a player who’s had a hot two months preceded by season upon season of mediocrity. Instead, you give the spot to a proven, top-tier performer who, ideally, is also enjoying a strong first half. I couldn’t agree more with that philosophy.
Today, I’m going to begin extending Joe’s balloting hermeneutics to the minor leagues. By that I mean I’m going to name my personal level-by-level minor league All-Stars. In the very low minors, where I’m beginning this series, it’s difficult to distinguish fluke performance from genuine skills growth–the track record either isn’t substantial or isn’t there at all. It’s when I get to the upper levels of the minors that I’ll get to wield my variant of Joe’s philosophy. By way of example, I’m not going to hand out any spots to the Hiram Bocachicas of the world. Irrespective of his merits, he’s not a highly valuable prospect by any standard. What I’m going to do is give spots to those who are not only performing well in the early months of the 2004 season, but also are doing so in tandem with legitimate prospect status.
Baseball exists in two parallel universes. It serves two masters. It has a foot in two worlds. It straddles a fence. It balances on two horses like a rider at an old west show…and so on and so forth.
On the one hand, it must entertain its paying customers and viewers. On the other, it is the prime directive of its participants to succeed. Often, these two missions are at odds (although you would never get most of the men inside the game to admit to that).
While some plays are completely frustrating on a strategic level, they serve to entertain the paying customer and home viewer. These are, for the most part, the plays that have long been called into question by the analytical sector of the baseball community. Even those of us in that community cannot deny that when they occur, they can be visually dynamic and bring a jolt to the heart while they’re happening. It is only afterward, when the dust has settled and the nitro pills we so desperately require have done their good work that we call into question the logic of such moves–no matter how much they may have thrilled the eye while they were underway.
There’s been a swell of interest in injuries, pitcher workloads, and sports medicine that’s been making me very happy lately. Slate, for instance, has a very interesting piece up on sports injuries. At the same time, I’ve heard that you’ll want to check out ESPN Magazine next week for something by yours truly. Add in the growing influence of the legions of fantasy players who want to know why so many of their players are on the DL, and injury analysis is hot. I’ll also tip my cap to folks like PBATS, ASMI, Rick Wilton, and RotoWire. Now, it’s time we try and make a difference. Because if continue to work, flip answers like “Players aren’t as tough as they were back in my day” or “It must be steroids” will disappear into the mist, like they very well should.
Powered by wheatgrass juice, on to the injuries…
Brad Sullivan, RHP, Age 22; A’s 1st round pick in 2003 out of the University of Houston
2004 Stats: 64 IP, 39 SO, 23 BB, 4.92 RA
Sullivan was a strikeout machine in college, but he’s been anything but in his brief pro career. His velocity is reportedly down from his days in Houston–he topped out at 91 the night I saw him–and he’s striking out a mere 14% of California League batters this season, an abysmal percentage for any pitcher, let alone a power guy.
The Matt Cain/Sullivan matchup I saw was an interesting contrast in pitching motions. As I wrote Wednesday, Cain’s motion was smooth and easy, with lots of leg drive. Sullivan’s delivery seemed much more effortful, with a lower arm slot and a very heavy whip of the arm as he throws. It’s a similar delivery to fellow ex-Cougar Ryan Wagner (although not at Wagner’s level on the painful-just-to-watch scale). It’s too early to give up on Sullivan–he’s in the perfect organization for developing minor league pitchers–but at the moment he looks like the latest casualty of college overuse.
Just as it did last year, trade season kicked off well before the July 31
deadline, with three teams making acquisitions designed to get them into
October, while another made perhaps the biggest gain of the day by trading
away a player.
The Mets and Astros started the day by swapping veterans. Houston traded right
fielder Richard Hidalgo to New York for right-handers
David Weathers and Jeremy Griffiths. The
‘stros have been trying to deal Hidalgo almost since the day they signed him
to a four-year, $32-million contract after his monster 2000 season. For their
money, they got one comparable season (2003), one mediocre one (2001) and one
disaster (2002). This year, Hidalgo had a big April (.341/.364/.622) and then
fell apart, dropping to .256/.309/.412 at the time of the deal.
The other big piece missing from OBP is the fact that reached on error
(ROE) has also been excluded. If you watch enough baseball, thoughts start
to creep into your head, wondering whether certain players can “generate”
errors to get on base. The poster boy for this line of thinking is
Ichiro Suzuki (or Ichiro! if you live within 100 miles of
Derek Zumsteg). Ichiro!’s speed and batting style certainly appear to make
defenses rush, maybe bobbling a few more balls and leaving him standing on
first after a routine ground ball for anyone else. Others may argue that
there’s a case for players who hit the ball harder than others. Perhaps
they too generate errors, but instead of speed making fielders rush, it’s
the velocity of the ball forcing the error. Thus, since those ROE are the
result of some talent of the batters and not necessarily the fault of the
defense, those plate appearances, rather than being counted against OBP,
should be counted for OBP.
There are several problems with this line of thinking. First and
foremost, there’s still the inherent problem of the official scorer and his
tendencies to rule various identical events as hits or errors, depending on
other factors not relevant to the play at hand. Players who play in front
of “hometown” official scorers will have more of their borderline calls
ruled as hits than players whose scorers who hold the defense to a higher
standard.
Second, there may be a difference between infield and outfield
ROE. While there’s certainly an argument that players can generate ROE in
the outfield by hitting a plethora of nearly fieldable line drives, most of
the influence we’re searching for empirically comes from infielders and
their rush to throw out a speedy runner.
It’s been an unusual postseason in NCAA baseball this year. Until 1998, the postseason tournament began with 48 teams playing in six-team, double-elimination brackets which were played over four days. This created a lot of drama, but it didn’t create great baseball, as you frequently ended up with a freshman waterboy pitching on Sunday afternoon. Under this format, upsets were the norm, and the field that reached the College World Series in Omaha was usually a rather motley crew of survivors.
In 1999, though, the NCAA moved to a 64-team field, adding a week to the postseason and switching from six-team regionals to four-team events in the first round. Under this format, the favorites flourished. Although upsets happened often enough to keep everyone on their toes, the fields in Omaha have been stronger from 1999 to 2003. This year, however, the apple cart has been overturned.
Jimy Williams has gone bunt crazy for the Astros. The Cardinals are on pace to post one of the best road records in history. The Rangers need sustained good pitching to stay in the race. These and other news and notes in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.