When Tom Ricketts purchased the Cubs at the end of the 2009 season, he spoke openly about how important it was for him to bring a title to the North Side of Chicago. That’s certainly possible, but previous moves by general manager Jim Hendry have handcuffed the team on a nearly unprecedented level. The contract situation Ricketts inherits is among the worst in baseball history, akin to him assuming somebody else’s poker hand and he’s all in, needing some help on the river.
Entering 2010, the Cubs have more than $125 million committed to just 11 players, including eight earning more than $10 million. That leaves a team that opened 2009 with a club-record payroll of $137 million almost already there again with 14 contracts still left to fulfill, nine of which could get locked up in the arbitration process. The $125 million figure doesn’t lead baseball, as the Yankees and Red Sox surpass it, but what makes situation so uniquely bad is that many of the contracts are for underperforming players, with Hendry’ propensity for handing out no-trade clauses like they were lollipops further constraining future personnel decisions, including at the July 31 non-waiver trading deadline should the Cubs contend.
Here’s a look at the eight big deals that are weighing down the Cubs, courtesy of our own Jeff Euston of Cot’s Contracts fame:
1. Alfonso Soriano, LF*
2010 salary: $18 million
Further commitment: $72 million for 2011-14
Coming off his worst season, Soriano actually gets a raise in 2010, with a good chance to be the team’s highest-paid player for the next five years. While Soriano has not been awful overall, he has hit .275/.328/.508 for the Cubs. As a point of reference, the Marlins‘ Cody Ross has been an exact match (.276/.333/.503) over the same stretch. Soriano still certainly has the ability to be a good player, but nobody would give him a deal anywhere close to five years and $90 million at this point.
2. Carlos Zambrano, RHP*
2010 salary: $17.875 million
Further commitment: $35.875 million for 2011-12 with a vesting option for 2013 that will be difficult to reach.
Zambrano is paid like an ace, but hasn’t pitched like one for the past two years, as he is usually beset by minor dings here and there, with the annual emotional blowup now becoming downright predictable. Like Soriano, he is good, but that doesn’t mean he’s not overpaid.
3. Aramis Ramirez, 3B*
2010: salary: $15.75 million
Further commitment: $14.6 million player option for 2011, $16 million team option for 2012
Ramirez is worth every penny when he is healthy, yet he’s averaged less than 130 games a year over the past five seasons, including just 82 last year.
4. Kosuke Fukudome, OF*
2010 salary: $13 million
Further commitment: $13.5 million for 2011
One of the biggest stars in Japan, Fukudome was expected to be a middle-of-the-order run producer and center fielder, but instead, has given the Cubs fourth-outfielder production. That mistake costs roughly half of the Marlins’ payroll for each of the next two years.
5. Ryan Dempster, RHP
2010 salary: $12.5 million
Further commitment: $13.5 million in 2011, $14 million player option for 2012
While the Cubs did a dangerous thing by giving Dempster a four-year deal coming off a career year, it worked out in the first season as Dempster actually out-pitched Zambrano in 2009 with a VORP of 30.3, compared to the Big Z’s 27.7.
6. Derrek Lee, 1B*
2010 salary: $13 million
Further commitment: None
Worth every penny.
7. Ted Lilly, LHP*
2010 contract: $12 million
Further commitment: None
Lilly has gone from an above-average lefty to one of the better ones in the game, and while he turns 35 before the 2011 season, another strong showing this year could lead to a considerable salary bump next year.
8. Carlos Silva, RHP
2010 salary: $11.5 million
Further commitment: $11.5 million in 2011, $2 million buyout in 2012
In fairness, the Cubs are responsible for “just” $6 million this year and $8 million next, as the Mariners, whose previous administration was dumb enough to give the fat strike-thrower this deal in the first place, will pick up $9 million. Even the $16 million the Cubs are responsible for is wasted money, a leftover sunk cost that serves as a two-year reminder of the Milton Bradley mistake.
*: The players marked with an asterisk have a contract clause preventing the Cubs from trading them, although Ramirez’ only applies through 2010.
So not only did the Cubs give these contracts, they’re stuck with them. On the financial side, they don’t have the dollar flexibility needed to add talent for the stretch run, and on the flip side, should things go horribly wrong and the Cubs find themselves out of contention, they’ll have veterans around with no ability to trade them to acquire help in building for the future because of the no-trade clauses. Hendry’s club-crippling addiction to such clauses even applies to the draft: as if Jeff Samardzija‘s ridiculous deal to steer him away from football doesn’t already generate snickers from other teams, he too cannot be dealt.
This isn’t the say all is lost, even though just Lee and Lilly come off the books at the end of this season, still leaving the Cubs committed for more than $100 million for just nine players. We’re talking about a team that finished in second place in the National League Central last season, 7 ½ games out of a playoff spots, in a year where everything that could go wrong, did. The Cubs are already an economic cash cow, as Wrigley Field doubles as a tourist attraction and they are one of the few franchises with little correlation between win-loss record and attendance. A World Series title would turn them into a true economic monster, as winning forgives everything, both in terms of fan sentiment and economic struggles.
Which brings us to one last contract, that of Hendry. He signed a four-year contract extension following the 2008 season. He has four years to get that river card to come up in the form of a World Series or he’ll be someone coming off the Cubs’ books in 2012.
A version of this story originally appeared on ESPN Insider .
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What happens next year? Josh Vitters to replace Lee at 1st? Jay Jackson and Andrew Cashner in the rotation? I assume the Cubs will trade Theriot next offseason to open up space for Starlin Castro.
Nothing wrong with the $125 million figure. That's probably about what it should be, behind the two bigger-market franchises, Yankees and Red Sox.
Maybe the bad contracts - which as a group don't strike me as all that awful, if two out of Soriano, Zambrano and Fukudome bounce back this year no one will be surprised - maybe they move the Cubs behind the Cards in terms of ability to take on salary. But if both the Cubs and the Brewers are contending come July, of course the Cubs will be more able to take on salary.
But let's give ol' Hendry a break. Heck, if Tribune had given me a blank check, I probably would've blown it on hookers (Soriano and Fukudome) and blow (Bradley) too. But that's probably why I'm not in charge of a 9 figure baseball roster. For some reason, lost to me and most of my compadres, somehow Hendry is.
I'm going to go way out on a limb here and say that an owner who built his wealth based on economics and analytics just might find a more like minded individual to run the team in the near future.
On the other hand, us Cubs fans have gotten extremely spoiled. The Cubs have been to the playoffs more in the last five years than they were in the three to four decades prior. Hendry does make some good moves on occasion, but he does handcuff himself with deals like Soriano and even the more minor moves like Miles and Gregg chip away at the budget and talent.
Frankly, I'm surprised that Hendry, who I think has done a horrific job, is still around. The 'all-in' attitude that lead to some of the contracts being signed was a novelty for Cubs fans at the time, but to my eyes there was a window of opportunity for playoff success that may have already closed. I suspect it will get worse before it gets better on the north side.
And even if you ignore that fact, then the Cubs only have $2mil more committed in 2013 than the Cards, so how are the Cubs in such a bad spot? The whole thing just seems to be an overstatement.
By contrast, the Cardinals are looking at CLUB options on Carpenter ($15 mil in 2012), Molina ($7 mil in 2012), and Wainwright ($9 mil in 2012 and $12 mil in 2013)! Throw in whatever you want for Pujols post-2011, but would anyone rather have their payroll going to productive players rather than to the Carlos Silvas of the world?
I harp on the cardinals here because while I do believe Holliday to be a superior player to Soriano (and the stats certainly bear that out), they didn't do themselves any favors by handing him the insane contract that they did knowing that they were going to have to hand out one that was likely going to be 50-60% bigger to Pujols. He doesn't age well per pecota, he hasn't played one full season outside of Coors (basically getting 17mil per year based on less than three months of fantastic play in St. Louis)and by the time he's at the end of his contract there's very little chance he'll be a full-time player, let alone workth 17mil.
I would certainly like the Cubs to have a bit more control over their own destiny for 2010 and 2011, but it becomes largely moot after that. Hendry gets to play out his contract with these players. If he doesn't win a WS, he and nearly every player on this team goes away after that.
I'll take this a step further and note that really, out of this list, there are only 2 guys truly overpaid (3 if you count Bradley, which begat Silva), Soriano and Zambrano. If 2009 truly showed Soriano's skill set going forward, then this is a bad contract of comic proportions. If however, he bounces back to anywhere near his 07-08 levels, then it's just a bad contract, the same bad contract everyone knew it would be when he signed it.
1. He doesn't opt out. Plays 2010 and 2011 for $30M, Cubs pick up his 2012 option for $16M. He'll be 34 and hitting the market again.
2. He doesn't opt out. Plays 2010 for $16M, 2011 for $14M. Cubs buy his 2012 out for $2M. This is where the risk comes in for Ramirez. If he doesn't stay healthy they don't pick up the option and hits the market coming off a bad year at 33.
2. He opts out. Plays 2010 for $16M, then hits the market at 32. This is where the risk is on the club but the incentive is on Ramirez. He plays at least 145 games and performs he can opt out and re-up with another club for $16M a year for 3 or 4 years no sweat. Has another 2009 and he's got his "pillow contract" for 2011.
If I were a betting man, and he has a good year, I bet he stays only if the Cubs guarantee his 2012.