Matt Wieters 2009 Weighted Mean PECOTA Forecast PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS EqBRR AVG/ OBP/ SLG MLVr EqA VORP WARP 649 105 33 2 31 102 77 102 4 2 -1.0 .311/.395/.544 .281 .319 59.6 7.9
PECOTA is an essentially conservative program. Its player-performance projections are neither wildly optimistic nor pessimistic, but built purely from the data, and from its own understanding of the way that player careers progress based on literally thousands of antecedents. Thus, when it proposes that Orioles catching prospect Matt Wieters, a rookie-to-be who has never played above Double-A, could hit .311/.395/.544 in the majors this year, we took notice-this was the first time that PECOTA had looked at a prospect and predicted an MVP-caliber, Hall of Fame-level season right off the bat.
By way of comparison, consider the two players who were the 2008 Rookie of the Year Award-winners in their respective leagues, both of whom PECOTA quite liked from the get-go. Tampa Bay Rays third baseman Evan Longoria received a weighted mean projection of .266/.339/.459. This was no surprise; by acclamation, Longoria was one of the most talented young players in the game. However, PECOTA can only go by what it sees in the player’s profile, both in terms of performance and vital statistics, so though it was quite high on Longoria compared to most other prospects, it did not overstate its estimation. In fact, PECOTA proved to be a little too reserved in this instance, as Longoria hit .272/.343/.531-the projection model nailed the batting average and on-base components of Longoria’s rookie year, but missed low on his power.
Over in the senior circuit, Cubs catcher Geovany Soto was projected to hit .273/.352/.470, another enthusiastic projection, but still a bit short of historic as far as introductions go. As with Longoria, PECOTA anticipated a bit less power than Soto displayed in major league action, but was quite close on the other two legs of the production tripod, as Soto hit .285 while posting a .364 on-base percentage. Soto had had an explosive year in the minor leagues in 2007, one almost as impressive in its own way as Wieters’ breakout campaign, but it was one that because of Soto’s age, the context of the league and performance levels involved, and other factors did not receive the same rave review from the system.
These same factors are the key to Wieters’ stunning PECOTA projection. PECOTA does not take a prospect’s minor league stats as is, but translates them first, adjusting for the park and league context. It also considers the player’s age, position, and body type before making its projection. The key for Wieters is just how well he makes out, despite the discounts on his performance wrought by these various translations. It is the rare young player who towers above his league to the degree that Wieters did last season, and then goes further by making the difficult jump to Double-A, not only maintaining production, but actually accelerating it. It is the rare 22-year-old who bats .345/.448/.576 in High-A ball, let alone .365/.460/.625 at Double-A. No matter how aggressively one reduces Wieters’ numbers through translation, you simply can’t make all of that go away.
Any young player looking to receive a Wieters-style PECOTA and become an instant fantasy (and real-world) darling, should follow a simple formula. First, dominate your league. Second, be the appropriate age for your league; PECOTA is properly skeptical of four-year college players who beat up on high school pitchers as 24-year-old players in short-season rookie ball. Third, do not rely too much on your ballpark to help you. Oh, and if it’s not too much trouble, fourth, do your best to show no weaknesses in any phase of your game. Just like Wieters did last year.
This is largely what Soto and Longoria did, just not to the same degree. In 2007, Longoria had hit .299/.402/.570 in the minors, including .307/.403/.528 at Double-A. These numbers are stunning, but not quite of the same quality as Wieters’. Soto had hit .353/.424/.652 at Triple-A Iowa in 2007, but that was in his age-24 season, so he was a critical two years older than Wieters, and so had (and has) less room for growth than did his younger catching counterpart.
Of course, as we’ve often said in our annual book, PECOTA is not destiny. Much stands between a young player and the achievement of his projection, whether that projection is as boldly put as Wieters’ is, or merely average. Injury is a particular risk for a young catcher, as an errant foul tip can mangle a finger, or a contact play at the plate can mangle an entire body. What makes Wieters’ projection all the more impressive is that PECOTA is aware of the toll that catching can take on a backstop’s offensive skills, and yet it still sees such impressive short-term results for the Orioles tyro.
Perhaps, then, it is wrong to say that PECOTA lacks optimism, that it doesn’t rave. In its own way, Wieters’ projection is its way of saying, “Hey, I think I spot a very rare talent here; you might want to pay attention.” Then again, PECOTA is merely a computer program, and this interpretation is, appropriately, an act of translation.
Thank you for reading
This is a free article. If you enjoyed it, consider subscribing to Baseball Prospectus. Subscriptions support ongoing public baseball research and analysis in an increasingly proprietary environment.
Subscribe now
Maybe not everybody is hitting .360, but plenty of 22 year olds dominate AA. And since when is 22 young for an elite prospect in AA?
Players who dominated AA ball as 22 year olds...
Howie Kendrick- .369/.408/.631
Mark Reynolds- .318/.401/.633
Justin Huber- .343/.432/.570
Mark Teahen- .335/.420/.543
Jeremy Reed- .409/.472/.591
My guess is PECOTA really likes Wieters\' walk and strikeout rates, but even so, to make a Hall of Fame level prediction after 437 at-bats is a little ridiculous, especially when similar players before him have failed.
Kidding.
That\'s not dismissing his obvious talent, but it concerns me when projecting from a single point. Its simply not enough data. If I were the GM of the Orioles, I wouldn\'t look at Pecota and say, \"Ok Matt, we\'re going to bring you up to the majors, hand you the starting job, and bat you third based on this projection.\" Instead, I\'d probably send him to AAA while keeping a close eye out to see if he continues to rake, and bring him up if he does. If he struggles, I might let him play the whole year in AAA and let him win a job next year on the club.
As hopeful as I am about Wieters, though, I am a bit skeptical that PECOTA\'s projections can come true, especially this year. I\'d like to see how someone responds to irablum\'s question regarding Wieters\' possession of only one year of pro-statistics. Although they\'re harder to translate, Wieters\' college statistics might be interesting to see as well, to examine whether the guy ever had a dip in his performance.
But anyway, thanks for the analysis.
Here is some supporting evidence that PECOTA is not regressing enough from \"What the Stats Mean\" on the minor league translation page;
\"Regular Translation: This applies adjustments for league difficulty to the player statistics,
resulting in a changed line. Everybody, from every park, is translated to the same underlying
standard. Hitters go to a league that hits .270/.330/.420 with a .260 eqa, pitchers go to a league
that allows 9 hits, 1 home run, 3 walks, and 6 strikeouts per nine innings with a 4.50 ERA. For
majors, these should be a close - but not necessarily exact - match for the \"adjusted for all-time\"
numbers (the translation process can cause slight differences from the exact rating, typically no
more than two points of EqA, unless PA are really low.) Ideally, this is how the player would
perform if he were called up to the majors right now - allowing for the difference between the
real majors and the standard league. In practice, they fall short. Most of that is because the
player most likely to be promoted is the one who is playing farthest over his head, a form of
selection bias. Players in AA or lower are even more likely to fall short, because the translation
routine is calibrated for one-level jumps, and there does appear to be an additional drop in
performance for players who try to jump two (or more) levels at once.\"
While he\'s the best prospect in baseball, Wieters\' PECOTA projection is nuts. PECOTA is basically saying Matt Wieters is Mike Piazza, not that when everything goes right he can become Mike Piazza.
Alex Gordon\'s PECOTA in 2007-.282/.364/.511 good for a .301 EQA.
Nothing against Wieters, but even if he makes that triple slash line, he won\'t see those kind of counting numbers, at least not this year.
For what its worth, ZiPs, CHone and Bill James had better projections for Soto and most of the ones I listed above. In my very limited experience, PECOTA is overly rosy compared to those projection systems on young players like Josh Phelps, Wilson Betemit, Chris Young, Milledge etc.
Lets start a comparative study with Weiters
PECOTA .311/.395/.544 (572 ABs)
Bill James 311/407/526 470 (470)
CHONE .274/352/439 (419)
Oliver 294/373/487 (453)
Baseball Forecaster 341/434/576 (200)
(Had to use Abs instead of PAs).
The best rookie in each league (determined after the fact) is almost certainly going to be a player who exceeded his forecast.
If we similarly judged PECOTA only by looking at MVPs we\'d probably see a list of players who performed in their 90th percentile projection or even better.
I\'d draft him wanting a minimum of .270/15/70 and hoping for for .280/20/80 while keeping J.R. Towles in mind. Problem is, the hype might be built up to the point that he is overdrafted when he should instead be the 5th or so catcher to come off the board. I\'d probably grab him in the 6th round or so if he lasted that long, and if not, take a Victor Martinez-type as a consolation.
the Handbook projects
.311 AVG
.407 OBP
.526 SLG
They project fewer plate appearances but still with 25 doubles, 25 home runs, and 100 runs created.
Pretty similar stuff. Should I draft this kid ahead of the likes of Mauer? Soto? McCann? Martin? I\'m torn...
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=6125
The competition is 15% tougher as you move up each league in the minors, and there is a big 25% in the competition difference from AAA to MLB. Assuming a young player improves 10% each year (by aging and facing tougher competition or learning the competition), we could possibly (or impossibly) expect Weiters\' .365/.460/.625 to increase to .401/.506/.687 this year. But then factoring in his leap to MLB and the basically 40% tougher competition, he would clock in at .256/.322/.438. Maybe that\'s low, but I\'d buy that more than .311/.395/.544.
If he kept improving at a 10% clip in MLB for two years, he would reach .310/.390/.530. That kind of looks like his PECOTA, now, doesn\'t it?
So, it looks like PECOTA is giving Wieters full credit for playing at his full potential at MLB this year, when it should be factoring in the tougher competition.
[Aside--It also looks like PECOTA only looks at his AA numbers. If you take his averages for last year, his projection should come out even lower. Let me put it this way...would you project a High-A player who hits .345/.448/.576 to hit .311/.395/.544 in MLB a year later?]
http://firstinning.com/players/Matt-Wieters-a/
Is that not a reason to temper PECOTA\'s excitement or does it consider such factors already?
Now I just have to apply PECOTA to figure out who is going to finish last in my league and get the #1 draft pick!
Oliver used three years of college data as well as the one year of pro for Wieters. Each of the college years translated to a wOBA in the 340\'s, MLB average but good for a catcher. 2008\'s translation was a 411 MLE wOBA, but beware of outlier seasons, only about a 30% chance of repeating. You wouldn\'t know it was an outlier without the college stats - the same thing happened with Alex Gordon, where he had a fine year in AA, but in MLB looks much more like he was in college.