Prospectus Feature: 6-4-3: Rounding the Bases
5/24Ok, so Mike Piazza says he's not gay. Bobby Valentine says that MLB's ready to deal with an openly gay player. Mike Timlin says he's already knowingly played with a gay player. Steve Phillips says that statistically, you'd expect a gay player in every clubhouse. He also encapsulates a lot of good thinking on the subject by saying "Who cares?"
Prospectus Feature: The Daily Prospectus: Heading Out
5/24I wouldn't say I'm going through the motions on this one, but I know that half the country is already gone for the weekend, and the other half is just waiting for the boss to give the signal. I'm headed to Fresno myself, in part to see my friends and their new baby, in part to catch the Grizzlies in their new park on Saturday. I'm writing this as packing activity goes on around me.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: Jose Canseco and the Keltner List
5/23When Jose Canseco finally announced his retirement last week, I thought little of his case for Cooperstown, citing him as a one-dimensional player, with too much of his value wrapped up in a five-year span. However, after reading Joe Sheehan's Tuesday edition of the Daily Prospectus, I slowly began to rethink my position.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: The Daily Prospectus: The Trade
5/23I know I'm supposed to write about the Jeremy Giambi trade. It's one of the strangest moves we've seen in a while, it involves a GM whose praises we've been singing for years and a player whose abilities we've promoted. Acquiring John Mabry makes no sense from any standpoint for the A's, a fact I'm sure Chris Kahrl will address in the next Transaction Analysis.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: Analyzing PAP (Part Two)
5/22Before claiming any success for any measure in predicting injury, we must fundamentally recognize that any PAP-style metric will be positively correlated with raw pitch counts. Pitchers with high pitch count totals will tend to have high PAP totals. If a PAP function provides no additional insight into which pitchers will be injured that pitch count totals alone, there is no reason to add the added complexity of a PAP system to our sabermetric arsenal.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: The Daily Prospectus: AL Outfielders
5/22In my book, you can't be an All-Star based on six weeks of good play. I absolutely hate that standard for picking All-Stars, and yet every year, we hear that some guy coming off the hottest month of his life should be an All-Star over an established star playing a bit below his level.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: Analyzing PAP (Part One)
5/21There are two related effects we are interested in studying. The original intent of PAP was to ascertain whether a pitcher is at risk of injury or permanent reduction in effectiveness due to repeated overwork. And in particular, does PAP (or any similar formula) provide more insight into that risk that simple pitch counts alone?
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: Box Work: Rally Killers
5/21A good box score answers countless questions. Was it windy, was it wet, how many people were there? Did the wind blow in, did it blow right to left, did it cause home runs? Was it a day game? Who was the home plate umpire? Did he squeeze the strike zone? How many fans showed up, and when were they allowed to leave?
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: The Daily Prospectus: All-Stars
5/21As you read this, remember my standards: I'm looking for the best player, not the guy having the best season, and will generally take the established star unless said star has clearly been passed by someone else.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: The Daily Prospectus: Saturday Night
5/20Friday evening, Sophia and I on were on our way to have dinner on the west side when she suggested that we take our friends, Shelley and E.J., to the Dodgers game on Saturday night. You could have knocked me over with an eephus pitch.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: Park Factors: Through Six Weeks
5/17The middle of May is a good time to take a look at the park factors around the league. Granted, its waaayyy too early to draw firm conclusions about these; most teams still haven't finished home-and-homes with their opponents to date, and the overall sample size is still small enough that chance has a lot to do with the results. Fact is, though, it's a fun thing to look at.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: How Sure is a “Can’t Miss” Pitching Prospect?
5/09For this study, I estimated career VORP for the BA's top 100 prospects from 1990 through 1997, that is, those who have had at least five years to prove themselves. I used the rule of thumb that 10 runs of value moves one game into the win column. This is what I found:
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: Aim for the Head: Dropping the Worst Starts
5/03There's some merit to the argument that a few starts can skew a pitcher's cumulative line, and there have been attempts, such as Michael Wolverton's Support-Neutral statistics to better model the maximum impact a single game can have on a pitcher's value.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: The Muser Era Ends
5/01There was little joy in watching the final, desperate days of the Tony Muser Era arrive at their inevitable conclusion. Nor was there any sense of anger or frustration from knowing how much opportunity has been wasted while we waited for the axe to fall.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: Sensible Revenue Sharing: One Man’s Plan
4/18One of the most complex and bedeviling problems in baseball today is understanding to what extent large-market teams have an competitive advantage over small-market teams.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: No Petty Miracle: A Light in the Tigers’ Darkness
4/16Four months ago, Adam Pettyjohn was expected to compete for a spot in the Tigers' rotation. He can be forgiven for failing to live up to those expectations. You see, four months ago, Pettyjohn weighed more than Kate Winslet. Four months ago, he had a colon.
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