Prospectus Feature: The Daily Prospectus: AL Outfielders
5/22In my book, you can't be an All-Star based on six weeks of good play. I absolutely hate that standard for picking All-Stars, and yet every year, we hear that some guy coming off the hottest month of his life should be an All-Star over an established star playing a bit below his level.
Prospectus Feature: Analyzing PAP (Part One)
5/21There are two related effects we are interested in studying. The original intent of PAP was to ascertain whether a pitcher is at risk of injury or permanent reduction in effectiveness due to repeated overwork. And in particular, does PAP (or any similar formula) provide more insight into that risk that simple pitch counts alone?
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: Box Work: Rally Killers
5/21A good box score answers countless questions. Was it windy, was it wet, how many people were there? Did the wind blow in, did it blow right to left, did it cause home runs? Was it a day game? Who was the home plate umpire? Did he squeeze the strike zone? How many fans showed up, and when were they allowed to leave?
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: The Daily Prospectus: All-Stars
5/21As you read this, remember my standards: I'm looking for the best player, not the guy having the best season, and will generally take the established star unless said star has clearly been passed by someone else.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: The Daily Prospectus: Saturday Night
5/20Friday evening, Sophia and I on were on our way to have dinner on the west side when she suggested that we take our friends, Shelley and E.J., to the Dodgers game on Saturday night. You could have knocked me over with an eephus pitch.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: Park Factors: Through Six Weeks
5/17The middle of May is a good time to take a look at the park factors around the league. Granted, its waaayyy too early to draw firm conclusions about these; most teams still haven't finished home-and-homes with their opponents to date, and the overall sample size is still small enough that chance has a lot to do with the results. Fact is, though, it's a fun thing to look at.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: How Sure is a “Can’t Miss” Pitching Prospect?
5/09For this study, I estimated career VORP for the BA's top 100 prospects from 1990 through 1997, that is, those who have had at least five years to prove themselves. I used the rule of thumb that 10 runs of value moves one game into the win column. This is what I found:
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: Aim for the Head: Dropping the Worst Starts
5/03There's some merit to the argument that a few starts can skew a pitcher's cumulative line, and there have been attempts, such as Michael Wolverton's Support-Neutral statistics to better model the maximum impact a single game can have on a pitcher's value.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: The Muser Era Ends
5/01There was little joy in watching the final, desperate days of the Tony Muser Era arrive at their inevitable conclusion. Nor was there any sense of anger or frustration from knowing how much opportunity has been wasted while we waited for the axe to fall.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: Sensible Revenue Sharing: One Man’s Plan
4/18One of the most complex and bedeviling problems in baseball today is understanding to what extent large-market teams have an competitive advantage over small-market teams.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: No Petty Miracle: A Light in the Tigers’ Darkness
4/16Four months ago, Adam Pettyjohn was expected to compete for a spot in the Tigers' rotation. He can be forgiven for failing to live up to those expectations. You see, four months ago, Pettyjohn weighed more than Kate Winslet. Four months ago, he had a colon.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: Not-in-Book Players: Some Guys We Missed
4/12Here's what we've been able to dredge up on the 29 guys we've identified as being on an Opening Day roster but not in Baseball Prospectus 2002.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: The Curse of the Moose
4/09I can think of only one good thing about Ken Griffey Jr.'s injury: it's a legend in the making, right up there with the Curse of the Bambino, and it reinforces why baseball is the greatest game on earth.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: The Body Armor Ban: Safety Takes a Back Seat
4/04A ludicrous slippery-slope response to baseball's recent announcement that they will enforce rules limiting the wearing of protective "body armor" at the plate? Of course it is. No one wants to see batters lose their head protection, no matter how much they crowd the plate.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: The Numbers (Part Eight): MLB vs. Forbes
4/03Add Forbes to the ever-growing list of those who don't believe MLB's cries of poverty.
continue reading chevron_rightchevron_rightProspectus Feature: American League Predictions
3/31Our best guess at 2002's winners and losers.
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