Today’s column was supposed to be a game report from yesterday’s Rangers/Angels tilt in Anaheim. Due to a series of events that, had they been filmed, would have been Oscar-worthy, my ticket went unused. I’m disappointed not only because I haven’t been to a game yet this year, but because I would have enjoyed the company. I was invited by Stephen Roney, who is the president of the Allan Roth chapter–the L.A. area chapter–of the Society for American Baseball Research. SABR might be one of the most misunderstood organizations in the country, associated as it is primarily with baseball’s statistics. Sabermetrics is much more than this; performance analysis is just a subset of the field, and any time spent with the historians and biographers and researchers of SABR shows you just how broad a knowledge base is represented in the group.
The Indians dodged a bullet Thursday when an MRI showed C.C. Sabathia had only some bicipital tendonitis. Sabathia is someone I’ve predicted would break down for years now, but he continues to defy me, proving once again that we still have a lot of work to do when it comes to injury prediction. The soreness in his arm doesn’t appear to be serious and that it happened while throwing a changeup is likely a red herring. While the irony of having Jeff D’Amico step in when someone is injured isn’t lost on me, Sabathia should be able to make his next start.
Kerry Wood may not have been praying for rain, but he’ll be the biggest beneficiary of Thursday’s rainout. The postponement will push his start back to Saturday, giving him two additional days of rest following his 130 pitch workload last time out. While recovery is still a poorly understood area of pitching, there are no negatives to this for Wood.
Joe Kerrigan has more work to do with Brett Myers. After missing a start to work on mechanics, Myers continued to struggle Thursday night. While I admittedly did not see the game beyond the highlights (dominated by the Gonzalez/Pratt face-off), Myers was clearly still off mechanically. His elbow was way ahead of his shoulder, much like Pedro Martinez in the middle of last season. If Myers cannot quickly correct the problem, the Phillies will have to consider some of their options in the minors.
Two weeks in, the sample sizes are still small but nearly 1/10th of the season is in the bag and some undeniable trends have emerged. The race now belongs to the quick, to those teams that spot their problems early and attacks them aggressively. As the iconic GM Branch Rickey said, “A man who isn’t alert is usually in the second division, and that’s where he belongs.” Have at it, boys.
You have to be strong offensively up the middle to win championships. I hear this all the time. The theory is that it’s harder to find premium players at catcher, second base, shortstop, and center field, and that once you’ve done so, finding the fill-in guys around the edges is much easier. This seems to make sense at first glance: There are so many guys in the majors (and minors) that could play a decent left field while hitting well that teams have to stack them like cordwood outside their Triple-A parks. And 1B/DH types are so plentiful it’s silly. But has that worked lately?
Andy Pettitte isn’t getting the attention of Mark Prior (more on him in the DMPU), but there are some inconsistencies in the story that the Astros are telling. Most of the concern has been focused on the UCL, but Pettitte’s described pain in his flexor tendon as well. Continued tenderness proves that the cortisone shot wasn’t enough to eliminate symptoms. The Astros will be watching his Friday spring training game closely.
The rehab on Joe Mauer is going well. Coming off minor knee surgery, Mauer is already hitting off a tee–or more likely his own swing trainer–and has had no setbacks. Expect him to come back toward the four-week mark due to caution and the hot streak that Henry Blanco is on. The Twins realize there’s no need to rush their prized catcher back.
The news is worse for Torii Hunter. His hamstring is not responding as expected, keeping from being able to run normally. Instead of being activated on Thursday, the Twins will wait a day and retest the leg. This delay would also allow Hunter to come back to grass rather than the new turf in the Dome. Several players I’ve spoken with, from various teams, are not fond of that new turf. Luckily, Lew Ford is giving the Twins room to be careful with Hunter.
Barry Bonds didn’t hit a home run last night, and that makes me happy.
Don’t get me wrong; I haven’t climbed aboard the Hate Barry! bandwagon. I think Bonds is a remarkable baseball player, someone who I enjoy watching whenever I can. He’s reached that level where no matter what I happen to be doing, I stop to watch his at-bats.
No, it’s just that the record is held in part by a player whose at-bats also used to dictate my movements: Don Mattingly. Mattingly made history by roping homers in eight straight games in July of 1987. If you’ve read this column for a while, you know that Mattingly is my all-time favorite player. I’m glad to see him hold his distinction, his place in history, for a bit longer. Records are made to be broken; I just don’t need to see this particular piece of my adolescence shattered.
It’s been a couple of weeks since the 30th anniversary of Hank Aaron’s historic 715th home run and the accompanying tributes, but Barry Bonds’ exploits tend to keep the top of the all-time chart in the news. With homers in seven straight games and counting at this writing, Bonds has blown past Willie Mays at number three like the Say Hey Kid was standing still, which–
Each year just before Opening Day, Team Marketing Report (TMR) releases the “Fan Cost Index” (FCI). According to TMR, the FCI “tracks the cost of attendance for a family of four.” This year, TMR says this hypothetical family’s day at the ballpark would cost an average of $155.52. The price would range from $108.83 in Montreal to $263.09 in Boston.
If this sounds high, you’re right. TMR defines the FCI to include two average-priced adult tickets and two average-priced children’s tickets–but also two small draft beers, four small soft drinks, four regular hot dogs, two programs, two of the least expensive adult-sized adjustable caps, and parking for one car. In short, while it might reflect how much a family that decides on the spur of the moment to go to their one game of the season might spend, it far overstates the cost for most fans, who can easily eat before the game, sit in the cheap seats and skip the souvenir caps.
Washington, D.C. officials have unveiled a plan to provide the Expos with a $340-million, baseball-only stadium entirely at the expense of taxpayers. That D.C. so gleefully welcomed MLB to the public trough and that the Expos will eventually land within the Beltway is about as surprising as when Detective O’McBrubakerohannally, who just mentioned to his partner and to regular viewers of “Badge of Dignity” that he’s two weeks from his pension, takes a fatal bullet on that routine summons-service detail.
I got a lot of e-mail on Wednesday about Rob Neyer’s excellent article on the history of the slider. Rob did a fine job describing the history and even the mechanics, but at the end, he discusses the “general thinking” that the slider is significantly harder on the arm than other pitches. According to Dr. Glenn Fleisig and the research team at ASMI, this isn’t so. Their research on the kinetics of various pitches shows that the slider does not significantly alter the kinetic forces on the arm as compared to a fastball. It is “harder” on the arm than a curveball, but the real danger comes when, as Rob says, the slider (or the close variants cut fastball and slurve) is thrown with a wrist snap. Science shows that it’s not the pitches that are hurting our pitchers, it’s how they throw them.
I have a hard time thinking of someone who went to batting left-handed exclusively and thrived. Some guys, notably Mariano Duncan, have given up batting left-handed and had success. I think re-adjusting to breaking balls, as well as trying to pick up new arm slots, would doom most efforts to failure. Valentin was so bad against lefties that I can’t blame him for trying, though. At worst, he’s the same should-be-platooned guy he’s long been. The Sox’s bigger problem is that neither Harris nor Valentin is capable of a .330 OBP, and if you have two guys like that batting 1-2, you’re screwed. All of this, of course, is Frank Thomas’ fault.
The Dodgers offense has finally come around, thanks in no small part to Adrian Beltre. The Twins have suffered through a rash of injuries, yet still refuse to bring up Justin Morneau. And the Giants can’t seem to win, even with Barry Bonds doing his best impression of Superman. All this and much more news from Los Angeles, Minnesota, and San Francisco in your Wednesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
Having just returned from my first game at Citizens Bank Park, a perfectly entertaining contest peppered with five home runs (including two by Placido Polanco plus a Pat Burrell shot that rattled the left-field foul pole) and ending in a 6-3 win for the minions of Bowa, I can say without hesitation that the one most memorable thing about the Phillies’ new $458 million stadium is… …hang on, give me a minute. I’ll come up with something.
You know that insurance commercial where the guy sleepily mumbles that he’s going to skip class before his roommate reminds him that college is over, and he’s going to be late for work? Now, imagine that, instead of facing some mild-mannered office manager, your boss is a graduate of the Larry Bowa School of Ballpark Dialectics who’s never actually held an indoor job. I’m not sure that you can classify minor league baseball as The Real World, but it’s at least a paying job of sorts, and it’s hard to imagine a tougher college-to-job transition than going from college athlete to minor league bus jockey without, say, taking a Wellesley grad and plunking her into the Peace Corps.
In college, while nominally an adult, you have a coaching staff that knows that a behavioral meltdown by a player will negatively affect their job status. In the low minors, on the other hand, the coaching staff is charged with weeding out the players, especially those near the talent margins, who won’t be able to handle the travel and celebrity scene if they advance. You go from living in a nice, structured dorm, usually with a bed check, to the standard short-season living arrangement–except for a few of the instant millionaires in the first dozen draft picks, that’s eight guys, one house, one car, one XBox, and a lot of pizza. You go from four games a week, mostly on the weekends, to six games a week with extensive late-night bus travel between.
There are positives to the Garret Anderson deal after all. The Tigers recall Uggy Urbina in their quest for 70 wins. The Royals lose Angel Berroa to migraines. The Expos re-sign Livan Hernandez to a three-year deal. And the A’s finally lose Chad Harville, but pick up Kirk Saarloos to replace him. All this and much more news from around the league in your Tuesday edition of Transaction Analysis.
My one and only conversation with Joe Torre took place during a lunch break about two weeks after the Yankees were eliminated by the Cleveland Indians in the 1997 Division Series. My impressions at the time were clouded by the kind of star-struck feelings that a little boy might have upon meeting with his hero. Yet, Joe Torre was not my hero so I cannot explain my nervousness. I don’t think it was merely shyness around a celebrity, because I think I would be in perfect control of myself if Burt Reynolds or Gavin McLeod appeared out of nowhere and criticized my lifelong policy of yam avoidance. In any case, weeks later my nervousness would be forgotten, and I would remember only his poise and how smooth, persuasive and in-control he was during our brief yam encounter. I don’t want to make too much of this, but clearly this was a man whose courage had been tested under fire. A different man might have been more timorous when it came to mocking another man’s side dish. Torre handled the whole encounter with aplomb, genial, yet forceful, like Gary Cooper. Shockingly, he seemed not at all intimidated by the inequality that existed between us–he being only the manager of the New York Yankees while I was the proud owner of a juris doctorate–and you can bet that if I had been Ken Kaiser, the Wookie from “Star Wars,” or GMS III himself, he would have forthrightly made the case for yams as if he cared nothing at all for his own job security and everything for the nutritional lives of his co-workers.