I got a lot of e-mail on Wednesday about Rob Neyer’s excellent article on the history of the slider. Rob did a fine job describing the history and even the mechanics, but at the end, he discusses the “general thinking” that the slider is significantly harder on the arm than other pitches. According to Dr. Glenn Fleisig and the research team at ASMI, this isn’t so. Their research on the kinetics of various pitches shows that the slider does not significantly alter the kinetic forces on the arm as compared to a fastball. It is “harder” on the arm than a curveball, but the real danger comes when, as Rob says, the slider (or the close variants cut fastball and slurve) is thrown with a wrist snap. Science shows that it’s not the pitches that are hurting our pitchers, it’s how they throw them.
I have a hard time thinking of someone who went to batting left-handed exclusively and thrived. Some guys, notably Mariano Duncan, have given up batting left-handed and had success. I think re-adjusting to breaking balls, as well as trying to pick up new arm slots, would doom most efforts to failure. Valentin was so bad against lefties that I can’t blame him for trying, though. At worst, he’s the same should-be-platooned guy he’s long been. The Sox’s bigger problem is that neither Harris nor Valentin is capable of a .330 OBP, and if you have two guys like that batting 1-2, you’re screwed. All of this, of course, is Frank Thomas’ fault.
The Dodgers offense has finally come around, thanks in no small part to Adrian Beltre. The Twins have suffered through a rash of injuries, yet still refuse to bring up Justin Morneau. And the Giants can’t seem to win, even with Barry Bonds doing his best impression of Superman. All this and much more news from Los Angeles, Minnesota, and San Francisco in your Wednesday edition of Prospectus Triple Play.
Having just returned from my first game at Citizens Bank Park, a perfectly entertaining contest peppered with five home runs (including two by Placido Polanco plus a Pat Burrell shot that rattled the left-field foul pole) and ending in a 6-3 win for the minions of Bowa, I can say without hesitation that the one most memorable thing about the Phillies’ new $458 million stadium is… …hang on, give me a minute. I’ll come up with something.
You know that insurance commercial where the guy sleepily mumbles that he’s going to skip class before his roommate reminds him that college is over, and he’s going to be late for work? Now, imagine that, instead of facing some mild-mannered office manager, your boss is a graduate of the Larry Bowa School of Ballpark Dialectics who’s never actually held an indoor job. I’m not sure that you can classify minor league baseball as The Real World, but it’s at least a paying job of sorts, and it’s hard to imagine a tougher college-to-job transition than going from college athlete to minor league bus jockey without, say, taking a Wellesley grad and plunking her into the Peace Corps.
In college, while nominally an adult, you have a coaching staff that knows that a behavioral meltdown by a player will negatively affect their job status. In the low minors, on the other hand, the coaching staff is charged with weeding out the players, especially those near the talent margins, who won’t be able to handle the travel and celebrity scene if they advance. You go from living in a nice, structured dorm, usually with a bed check, to the standard short-season living arrangement–except for a few of the instant millionaires in the first dozen draft picks, that’s eight guys, one house, one car, one XBox, and a lot of pizza. You go from four games a week, mostly on the weekends, to six games a week with extensive late-night bus travel between.
There are positives to the Garret Anderson deal after all. The Tigers recall Uggy Urbina in their quest for 70 wins. The Royals lose Angel Berroa to migraines. The Expos re-sign Livan Hernandez to a three-year deal. And the A’s finally lose Chad Harville, but pick up Kirk Saarloos to replace him. All this and much more news from around the league in your Tuesday edition of Transaction Analysis.
My one and only conversation with Joe Torre took place during a lunch break about two weeks after the Yankees were eliminated by the Cleveland Indians in the 1997 Division Series. My impressions at the time were clouded by the kind of star-struck feelings that a little boy might have upon meeting with his hero. Yet, Joe Torre was not my hero so I cannot explain my nervousness. I don’t think it was merely shyness around a celebrity, because I think I would be in perfect control of myself if Burt Reynolds or Gavin McLeod appeared out of nowhere and criticized my lifelong policy of yam avoidance. In any case, weeks later my nervousness would be forgotten, and I would remember only his poise and how smooth, persuasive and in-control he was during our brief yam encounter. I don’t want to make too much of this, but clearly this was a man whose courage had been tested under fire. A different man might have been more timorous when it came to mocking another man’s side dish. Torre handled the whole encounter with aplomb, genial, yet forceful, like Gary Cooper. Shockingly, he seemed not at all intimidated by the inequality that existed between us–he being only the manager of the New York Yankees while I was the proud owner of a juris doctorate–and you can bet that if I had been Ken Kaiser, the Wookie from “Star Wars,” or GMS III himself, he would have forthrightly made the case for yams as if he cared nothing at all for his own job security and everything for the nutritional lives of his co-workers.
Why the hell is Justin Morneau in the minors?
Morneau, the 22-year-old hitting machine from British Columbia, nearly made
the Twins in spring training, losing out because Ron Gardenhire and Terry Ryan
didn’t think they could give him enough playing time in the majors. Since
then, three of the Twins’ Opening Day starters have made their way to the
disabled list, including Matt LeCroy, who nominally beat out
Morneau for the DH job.
When Joe Mauer injured his knee in the second game of the
season, I figured that would create the opening for the Twins to recall and
play Morneau. LeCroy could take over behind the plate, and Morneau could get
the majority of the DH at-bats until Mauer returned. When LeCroy himself was
hurt the next day, the move seemed even more logical. Now the Twins needed a
bat in a big way, and Morneau would have no competition in the DH role for at
least two weeks. The Twins instead went to 12 pitchers and no Morneau.
Torii Hunter’s strained right hamstring didn’t help him,
either; the Twins instead recalled Lew Ford, a decision that
actually made sense under the circumstances.
This story on Mark Prior just shows me how much more work I have to do. In jumbling quotes around to make the most alarmist case possible, the unnamed author of the article shows a complete disregard for medical facts. Prior may have a minor elbow ailment (noted by Jayson Stark and well-known around these parts), but the author also neglects to note that the Cubs are dealing with two similar injuries that would shed light on what Prior is going through. Mike Remlinger is coming back from shoulder surgery, taking more time than the Cubs expected to return, even causing some to say that Remlinger may miss the season (expect him back in June.) Mark Grudzielanek is out for now with an Achilles injury, as is Nomar Garciaparra. The injury is slow-healing, doesn’t respond well to much beyond rest, and is notoriously unpredictable. Add this up and it’s easy to see why the Cubs are being extremely cautious with their most valuable player. What’s not easy to see is why no one else seems to understand this.
Tyler Houston has more to say about Larry Bowa. Chuck LaMar believes Lou Piniella is one of the best strategists in the game. It’s about the money and not about the money at the same time for Frank Thomas. And Jimy Williams would like to see Adam Everett bunt more often. All this and many more quips in this edition of The Week In Quotes.
There isn’t much about in the way of statistical reports on managers here at Baseball Prospectus. The official BP POV is that you need proof to prognosticate or pontificate, and there is little about managers that can be explained without resorting to subjective, anecdotal evidence. The most we can do is point out aspects of a manager’s personality or performance that are well-documented and likely played some role in influencing the performances of those around him. Fortunately, the most successful and longest lived managers–not always the same thing–have left a fossil record of accumulated incidents that goes a long way towards defining them. Though it is impossible to prove a manager’s precise effect on his team’s record of wins and losses, the historical record contains ample evidence of managers’ ability to both hinder and, in more select circumstances, help their teams. Here, in order, are the 20 managers who have compiled the most victories in the history of the game, with an emphasis on their human side–from which much about their teams can be inferred, but conclusions cannot be drawn.
John Maine has the right STUFF for the Orioles. The Rockies experiment with Wilson and Walker on the shelf. The Mets shuffle through the bottom of their rotation. These and other news and notes out of Baltimore, Colorado, and New York in today’s Prospectus Triple Play.
While I don’t think the Anderson contract was a good one, I can at least see the rationale behind it, the organizational thought process. The Expos’ commitment to Hernandez, an innings sponge coming off of his best season, makes much less sense to me. To justify it, you have to think that 2003 represented an Andersonesque leap in performance, and be comfortable with the idea that Hernandez’s huge workload in his 20s isn’t going to affect either his pitching or his availability over the next few years. I don’t know that I can agree with either premise. Despite being the Pitcher Abuse Points poster boy throughout this career, Hernandez has remained healthy enough to make virtually all his starts since reaching the majors for good in 1997. He’s established himself as a workhorse who, 2003 aside, provides league-average performance over 210 or more innings. That has value, but when you look at what pitchers of Hernandez’s ilk got over the winter, it’s hard to understand $7 million a season. Jeff Suppan, a pretty good comp for Hernandez, signed for two years and $6 million over the winter. Jason Johnson is a bit inferior to Hernandez, and got $7 million over two years. Steve Trachsel got his 2005 option picked up at $5 million and an option year–not guaranteed–tacked on at $7 million. In light of these signings, Hernandez was retained at a significant premium above his market value–assuming other teams don’t think Livan’s 2003 represented a new performance plateau.
With all due kudos to Barry Bonds for passing Willie Mays on the all-time home run leaderboard, I’m hoping his efforts to fell Hank Aaron’s mark of 755 come to grief. I’m not wishing injury upon Bonds, and this sentiment of mine is not borne of any animus toward Bonds himself. I’m gleefully untroubled by the steroids issue, and I’m also not one of these who levels his selective misanthropy at the modern ballplayer. I’m just someone who has a deep and abiding admiration for Hank Aaron, such that I want to see him cling to this record until we do a collective header back into the primordial soup whence we came.
The Expos were expected to be an offensive force. It remains to be seen if the first two weeks are a fluke, whether the Marlins pitching is really that good, or if things will balance out. What is known is that the Expos will have to improve without Carl Everett. Everett was expected to take up some of the slack left by the loss of Vladimir Guerrero. Instead, he’ll spend the next month rehabbing a torn labrum. He hurt his shoulder on a violent slide into second. Reports say that the MRI shows only a small tear of the posterior aspect of Everett’s labrum. Things are looking very good for Trot Nixon. His extended stay in Miami hasn’t set back his timetable. After a pair of successful batting practice sessions, Nixon is moving to the Red Sox’s Ft. Myers rehab facility. He’ll continue his extensive rehab program with Sox trainers, not just for the next weeks, but if he hopes to stay healthy, he’ll have to make this part of his daily routine. Nixon could be back in Boston’s lineup as early as May 1, but it’s more likely that it will be a week to 10 days after that.
The Phillies make a commitment they might regret, Jimy Williams makes
decisions that Astros’ fans might regret, and the Twins and Orioles sever some
ties, without regret.